Three Closers (RPs) Who Will Underperform Their 2015 ADP

March 7, 2015

Kyle Bishop evaluates three closers who could underperform their ADP in 2015. These relievers should be avoided in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Don't Pay For These Saves

You hear it every year: Don't pay for saves. A simple, effective strategy if you're an active and intelligent owner. Which, if you're reading this, you are. And handsome to boot! Have you lost weight?

Sometimes, though, that strategy can be a bit of a boondoggle. I changed closers more frequently than my bed sheets last season, as certain managers seemingly had it out for me and zigged every time I zagged. I'm treating that like the aberration it probably was, since I've done just fine for myself in the saves department most years. Still, I might be tempted to invest just a bit more than usual in 2015.
 
The three relievers listed below, however, won't be in my portfolio.
 

Zach Britton (131.8 ADP)

After 250 uninspiring innings as a starter at the MLB level, Zach Britton was moved to the bullpen and quickly established himself as the Orioles' man in the ninth. His 1.65 ERA and 37 saves were both 11th in the majors among qualified relievers, and he led the world with an absurd 75.3 GB%. Only Brad Ziegler has a higher mark in the 13 seasons that metric has been tracked.

Given that he'd never cracked 61% before, it seems reasonable to expect a few more fly balls this time around. That's bad news, because Britton allowed homers on a whopping 17.4% of flies. Then, consider the .215 BABIP that screams for regression along with a pedestrian strikeout rate, and it suddenly becomes clear why Britton's FIP was nearly double his ERA. His price isn't as steep as I would have expected, but if I had to put money on the guy most likely to lose his closer gig by Memorial Day, Britton would be high on the list. Though not as high as the guy right behind him in ADP...
 

Fernando Rodney (132.8 ADP)

I mentioned this in our February rankings, but it bears repeating - I know he's done pretty well for himself the last few years, but I simply don't trust Fernando Rodney. He's entering his age 38 season and his walk rate is always a threat to balloon out of control. I completely expected him to be among the earliest casualties last year in the annual Great Closer Purge. Instead, he led the majors with 48 saves...so naturally, I'm doubling down. FREE DANNY FARQUHAR!
 

Jonathan Papelbon (138 ADP)

The Phillies haven't given up on dealing Jonathan Papelbon, but he's still more likely than not to open the year in their uniform and their closer role. Whether he ends the season in either is another matter entirely. Even if he isn't traded, Papelbon's declining velocity and increased reliance on his slider are portents of doom in the form of ineffectiveness, injury, or both. With young fireballer Ken Giles breathing down his neck and the front office surely concerned about triggering his 2016 option, it's not hard to imagine Papelbon losing the ninth at some point.