RADIO
The Week 17 wide receiver matchup article yielded some decent results, but Tyreek Hill (WR47) was a massive disappointment against the Bengals as the Chiefs offense stalled in the second half. Cooper Kupp (WR6), Deebo Samuel (WR17), Mike Evans (WR21), Diontae Johnson (WR19) and Tyler Boyd (WR27) all had solid, but not blow-up games. Courtland Sutton (WR45) didn't come through, but we knew that was an iffy proposition going into the game given the Broncos brutal quarterback situation. Van Jefferson (WR41) underwhelmed, and Gabriel Davis (WR62) hardly did anything in what turned out to be a bad-weather game and one of Josh Allen's worst days throwing the ball of his entire season. Now it's time to put Week 17 behind us and look forward to Week 18.
Normally I would say that nothing is more important than matchup analysis when it comes to fantasy football. However, when you play fantasy football in Week 18, you need to consider which teams still have something to play for and will play their starters. Otherwise you can't trust them in your lineup. This week, the Chiefs are still competing for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC so it's safe to play those players. The Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Saints, Rams, 49ers, Bills, Patriots, Chargers and Raiders players are also safe to play. The Bengals and Packers may rest their starters this week, so you want to stay away from those players and it's unclear just how much the Cowboys and Eagles will play their starters, making those players risky starts. As you will read below, I am not really looking to take shots on low-end guys this week given the great unknown of how much certain guys will play, so I am going to stick with more proven receivers who have something to play for this week.
The regular season comes to a conclusion this week, so at this point we all know that the Titans, Bears, Colts, Saints, Dolphins, Vikings, and Washington defenses have weaknesses in their secondaries that we can exploit with wide receiver matchups. Analyzing another angle, the Saints, Ravens, Titans, Bengals, Seahawks, Eagles and Rams defenses have given up 4.0 yards-per-carry or less which means teams may look to pass on them given their ability to stop the run. Here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 18. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games. The matchup data used in this article is from PFF.
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Cooper Kupp, L.A. Rams
$10,000 FanDuel / $9,700 DraftKings - vs Deommodore Lenoir
Back in Week 10, Cooper Kupp gained 122 yards on 11 catches against the 49ers and since that time their secondary has actually gotten more beat up with injuries. Kupp is within reach of Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage record and the Rams are playing for the NFC West title, so Kupp will be targeted early and often as the Rams look to get the win. Kupp will likely see coverage from Deommodore Lenoir, but even if Josh Norman or Ambry Thomas cover him, he won't have a problem against them.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
$8,800 FanDuel / $8,500 DraftKings - vs Jalen Ramsey
The 49ers are fighting for their playoff lives and really need to come away with a win against the Rams in Week 18. Deebo Samuel has been the most dangerous offensive weapon on the 49ers offense lately and he scored 27.8 fantasy points against the Rams in their Week 10 matchup. Samuel should see Jalen Ramsey in coverage a lot this week but Ramsey won't travel with him so he will also see coverage from Dont'e Deayon for a significant number of snaps. Back in Week 10, Samuel also carried the ball five times for 36 yards and a score, so don't forget about that element to his game which helps his production. The 49ers need this game and look for them to feed their No. 1 offensive weapon down the stretch.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
$8,200 FanDuel / $8,000 DraftKings - vs Nate Hairston
The Broncos have a pretty strong secondary, but Pat Surtain II and Ronald Darby have both been ruled out due to injury. Tyreek Hill has let us down two weeks in a row, but he's in a great spot this week against a depleted Broncos secondary. The Chiefs need to win if they want to hold onto hope for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so Hill should be involved in this contest.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
$7,700 FanDuel / $7,800 DraftKings - vs Michael Carter II
The Jets are absolutely brutal on defense and Stefon Diggs shouldn't have any problems dealing with Michael Carter II. Carter gives up a 77% catch-rate and a healthy 1.35 yards-per-route covered. Carter is also the most-targeted cornerback in the Jets secondary, seeing passes thrown in his direction on 18% of routes he covers. In Week 10, Diggs had eight catches for 162 yards and a touchdown in this matchup, so the history here is good for him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
$7,500 FanDuel / $6,800 DraftKings - vs Chandon Sullivan
Jaire Alexander is out this week so Amon-Ra St. Brown will have a much easier matchup against Chandon Sullivan. Over the last five weeks, St. Brown has been targeted at least 11 times a game and has caught at least eight balls for 73 yards and scored four times over that same span. He's on a roll right now, so get him in your lineup.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
$6,700 FanDuel / $6,200 DraftKings - vs James Bradberry
Earlier in the season, Terry McLaurin had 11 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. The Giants simply aren't competitive at this point in the season and while Washington is eliminated from playoff contention, their quarterback, Taylor Heinicke, has some incentives on the line so he will be looking to sling it this week. This bodes well for McLaurin's outlook.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
$6,600 FanDuel / $5,900 DraftKings - vs Chris Claybrooks
The Jaguars season has been over for several weeks now and the players on that roster and likely looking to get through this game healthy and get to the offseason. Back in Week 10, Michael Pittman had five catches for 71 yards against the Jaguars, but Pittman could have done much more if the Colts defense hadn't blocked the punt early in the game which prompted the Colts to play an extremely conservative game on offense for the last three quarters. The Jaguars give up the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers and actually gave up 20-point games to Jakobi Meyers and Kristian Wilkerson in the same game last week. The Colts need to win in order to hang on to their playoff hopes, so expect their offense to have a big day in Week 18.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
$6,800 FanDuel / $6,300 DraftKings - vs Jalen Mills
Jaylen Waddle is the main option in the Dolphins passing game and while he had a poor performance in Week 17, gaining just 47 yards on three catches, he should be able to bounce back against the Patriots secondary which is definitely beatable aside from J.C. Jackson.
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