Red Zone Risers - Identifying Higher Fantasy Scoring Potential

October 20, 2018

RotoBaller's red zone risers and fallers tool identifies players with higher fantasy football scoring potential based on touches and opportunity in the red zone.

We're starting to get a sense of which players are integral parts of their team's offense, especially in the red zone. And we all know as fantasy players that touching the ball in this area more often than not lead to the very thing that will send your team into victory each week - touchdowns. Still, injuries and bye weeks demand that we find under-the-radar players who have great opportunity to contribute as well. We always need to dig deeper to find great values at the skill positions. Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues.

In this article each week, we'll identify red zone risers and fallers who could see their fantasy value impacted by usage in the most critical area of the field. RotoBaller's Red Zone Sleepers tool is a great way to get an edge on the competition by identifying players with greater scoring opportunities.

Let's take a look at which fantasy football players could be touchdown and scoring risers or fallers in fantasy football for Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season, based on red zone opportunities.

Red Zone Risers

RUNNING BACK

T.J. Yeldon (RB, JAX) - 41.0% Red-zone touch%

With the team's leading running back Leonard Fournette still out of the lineup with a hamstring injury, Yeldon has taken the backfield to be his own and doesn't look like he is going to give that up any time soon. Yeldon currently has touched the ball on 16 of the 39 plays his team has run in the red zone, equating to him ranking 6th at the running back position for touches in that area of the field. The team currently has passed more in the red zone than fantasy owners may have originally expected, passing on 59% of the plays that they have had in the red zone. Given the obvious limitations of quarterback Blake Bortles, and the way that Yeldon has been able to impress on the field the Jaguars will likely look to buck that trend and rush more plays, playing in Yeldon's hands even further.

Ito Smith (RB, ATL) - 28.6% Red-zone touch%

Ito Smith has really taken the opportunity that has come to him with fellow running back Devonta Freeman missing time. While Tevin Coleman has been the lead back for the Falcons with Freeman out of the lineup, it seems that Smith has taken the previous role that Coleman had as the team's red zone threat. Smith has touched the ball 16 times of the 56 plays that the Falcons have run in the red zone but he didn't even have a touch in Week 1. Smith is truly one of the red zone risers from recent weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Marvin Jones (WR, DET) - 21.6% Red-zone touch%

Any receiver that gets over 20% of their teams touches in the red zone is a guy you want on your team because they are going to present great touchdown upside for your roster. Marvin Jones is especially valuable as the Detroit Lions are currently favoring passing plays in the red zone. Matthew Stafford has always had a multitude of targets in the red zone in his career, and fantasy owners could be worried about the emergence of fellow wide receiver Kenny Golladay. However, Golladay currently has not even had the second most number of touches in the red zone on the team.

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) - 18.8% Red-zone touch%

There are two players in the New York Giants offense that have the exact same number of touches in the red zone. Odell Beckham Jr and Shepard have both touched the ball on 9 plays of the 48 that the Giants have run in the red zone. While Beckham will likely see his share increase in the red zone as he is a great talent, Shepard will be hoping to continue to see the ball given that the Giants rank sixth in their preference of passing plays compared to running plays, particularly if tight end Even Engram continues to miss time.

TIGHT END

Ryan Griffin (TE, HOU) - 13.0% Red-zone touch%

Ryan Griffin may not be a well-known player for fantasy, but that could change given the number of touches he has been given in the red zone. Griffin currently has had nine touches, which is bettered by only three players and ties him with Travis Kelce. The difference between Griffin and all of the others is he is yet to take those opportunities into the end zone. The Texans are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL with a split of 55/45 to passing plays, but Griffin is only one touch behind DeAndre Hopkins for second on the team in red zone touches. If you have space on your bench pick him up now before Griffin starts scoring the touchdowns that his involvement indicates he should have already.

Red Zone Fallers

RUNNING BACK

Duke Johnson (RB, CLE) - 7.5% Red-zone touch%

Going into the season Duke Johnson was getting a lot of hype, even with the team adding Carlos Hyde then selecting rookie Nick Chubb. For whatever reason, the team hasn't used Johnson as often as expected and that is highlighted in his red zone usage touching the ball only three times from his teams 40 trips to the red zone. The opportunity for Johnson to get involved going forward increases with the trade of Carlos Hyde who had the vast majority of the touches in the red zone with 18 touches, followed by Jarvis Landry with 9 and that doesn't take into consideration the emergence of David Njoku at tight end.

WIDE RECEIVER

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI) - 10.0% Red-zone touch%

Last week one of the risers was running back David Johnson and he is really the red zone option for the team, accounting for over 60% of the teams touches in the red zone. If the Cardinals were making frequent trips to the red zone then it wouldn't be a significant issue that Fitzgerald accounts for 10% of the team's touches, but they don't. In fact, the Cardinals have had 30 potential touches in the red zone, which is only worse than the Miami Dolphins.

TIGHT END

Charles Clay (TE, BUF) - 8.6% Red-zone touch%

The Buffalo Bills are struggling to get anything going this year. Their most talented player on offense LeSean McCoy unsurprisingly has had the most amount of touches in the red zone with nine, while tight end Charles Clay only has three. The tight end position (unless you have one of the top talents) is about streaming the position for touchdown upside and that just doesn't exist for Clay. The team is running far more rushing plays in the red zone and Clay isn't even the most involved receiver with wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin tied with Clay for involvement, trailing Zay Jones.

Red Zone Sleepers

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