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With the All-Star Game approaching and the annual MVP discussion heating up, the NBA is at its halfway point.
While current playoff seedings slightly represent the league's hierarchy, a few teams come to mind when indicating which team's regular season success potentially translates to playoff wins and who's solely a regular season product and not a legitimate NBA Finals contender.
As the early-season honeymoon stage fades and the ramp-up to the playoff race heats up, RotoBaller will provide you with a weekly update on who we see as the contenders and pretenders of the league. Without further ado, here are the Week 17 NBA contenders and pretenders.
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Week 17's Pretenders
New Orleans Pelicans
- Record: 32-22
- Conference Standing: 5th in Western Conference
Pardon me for coming out the gate hot, but the New Orleans Pelicans don't exude the aura of a championship threat. Despite holding a 4-1 record in their last five games, the Pelicans have a strong scent of fraudulence. Relying on Zion Williamson seems irresponsible, regardless of the two games scored at 30-plus points in the Duke alum's past five outings.
He's still subpar in the rebound category, averaging only 5.5 on the season. Furthermore, you'd think someone of Williamson's athletic ability would intimidate layup and dunk attempts. However, Williamson's block percentage ranks 100th league-wide, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player coming into the league hyped due to extreme athleticism.
Although the Pelicans rank eighth in defensive rating, they allow their opponents the 29th-most three-point attempts, which doesn't bode well in a league riddled with floor extenders. Admittedly, the Pelicans have lengthy wings, mainly Herbert Jones, who looks the part of a legitimate playoff defender. Brandon Ingram, though, is another story. It's hard to pinpoint the legitimacy of the one-time All-Star. Considering Ingram's reputation, you'd imagine him as an elite offensive producer; this time, perception is not reality.
Shooting below league-average standards from effective field goal (.533) and true shooting percentage (.577), Ingram is more flash than substance, as his slinky frame and eagerness to attempt contested midrange shots ultimately present a mirage of a legitimate NBA star. Aside from the shooting numbers, since entering the league, Ingram has continued failing to register a positive number in the defensive box plus-minus category.
We'll see how the Pelicans finish the season, but at this moment, I see a first-round exit.
Miami Heat
- Record: 28-25
- Conference Standing: 8th in Eastern Conference
Never doubt Erik Spoelstra, as such a judgment will cost you. However, although I have no doubt Spoelstra will have his team ready to play in April, I don't think the Miami Heat will repeat last postseason's magic. Heat Culture took a loss this season; as a team that swore up and down, they had the best package for Damian Lillard and won the trade before it happened, only to acquire Terry Rozier, which seems like a whiff of a move.
Donning a 3-2 record in its last five games, with only one win against an over .500 team, Miami made such a run possible by beating the league's bottom-feeders. For what it's worth, though, Jimmy Butler seems engaged in regular season play, as he recorded a triple-double in the recent five-game stretch. Playoff Jimmy can't save regular season Miami indifference. The Heat haven't beaten an Eastern Conference playoff-worthy team (aside from the Orlando Magic) in 25 games.
Moreover, Miami finished with a 4-6 record within its conference in the last 15 games. The 143-110 slaughter to the Boston Celtics and the 115-109 loss to the New York Knicks stand out as red flags for a team lacking the talent to compete with the higher seeds in the Eastern Conference. Barring a catastrophic injury to their first-round opponent's star player, I don't envision the Miami Heat making another Cinderella run to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Week 17's Contenders
New York Knicks
- Record: 33-21
- Conference Standing: 4th in Western Conference
I never pictured the New York Knicks as a contender in my adulthood viewing of the NBA. However, thanks to a refreshingly competent front office maneuvering and the blossoming star of Jalen Brunson, the Knicks pridefully own the sixth-best net rating league-wide. Despite long-term injuries to Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, the Knicks managed a 6-4 record in their last 10 games.
I never wanna hear about this man's size again.
Jalen Brunson can score on your favorite players favorite player. pic.twitter.com/aLZWFlDBHZ
— Big Knick Energy (@BigKnickEnergy_) February 11, 2024
Ranked eighth in offensive and defensive rating, the Knicks stand in formidable territory. Despite injuries to their frontcourt depth chart, New York makes a collective effort on the boards, as it sits second league-wide in the rebound category. Another aspect of the Knicks, which points to the team gracefully expanding the regular season to the postseason, is the pace in which they play. New York plays approximately 96.6 possessions per game, which falls to 28th in the NBA.
Slower play ages well in the playoffs as teams become more calculated, and each possession means do or die to the final score.
Aside from the 27.5 points per game scored by Brunson, the timely trade for Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks enables more floor spacing once Randle and Anunoby return from their respective injuries. New York is as balanced of a team as I remember seeing in my 23 years of watching the NBA. Making Knicks jokes seems a thing of the past, as now, the "bing bong" crew seems more earnest than laughable.
With such a balanced roster equipped with a legitimate star in Brunson, I envision the Knicks making noise past April this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Record: 37-16
- Conference Standing: 1st in Western Conference
In our first pretenders and contenders, I claimed the Minnesota Timberwolves as the former, but their sustained run merits respect. Heading into the All-Star break, the Timberwolves' momentum fires up to a formidable level. Minnesota sits first in the Western Conference standings, trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder in net rating at +6.4, which marks the third-best in the association.
Following consecutive double-digit road victories over the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks, how can one deny the legitimacy of the Timberwolves? I know I previously mentioned Karl-Anthony Towns as the team's inevitable downfall. Still, perhaps Minnesota wins despite the lack of defense and criminally bad court awareness of the All-Star. Impressively, the Timberwolves maintained their defensive intensity in a regular season where most teams slack off on their defensive assignment.
Although their offensive rating currently ranks 17th, the Timberwolves' true shooting percentage sits at a rather respectable ninth place with a 60.4 mark. Anthony Edwards' natural placement as the team's star player catapulted Minnesota into contender status. In Monday's contest vs. the Clippers, Edwards had six points at halftime, with the Timberwolves down 53-49. However, when necessary, Edwards takes over as a legitimate threat, finishing with 17 second-half points.
Anthony Edwards driving euro + reverse layup pic.twitter.com/Z54YGJaL43
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) February 13, 2024
While things may crumble in the playoffs for the seemingly hardened Timberwolves, sustained greatness isn't easy, which allows my mind to mold into seeing them as a legitimate contender in the NBA.
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