Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Week 16 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchup Analysis


The (6-8) Denver Broncos and (3-11) Oakland Raiders have combined for fewer wins this season than 20-percent of the remaining teams in the NFL; individually. If we were somehow able to fuse quarterbacks Case Keenum and Derek Carr, the resulting Casrek Kerrum would have the same amount of touchdown passes as Andrew Luck and 11 fewer than Patrick Mahomes. Marshawn Lynch has just 140 fewer rushing yards and the same number of rushing touchdowns (three) as Raiders leading-rusher Doug Martin on the season. Not only has Lynch not seen the field since October 14th, but 19 running backs have put up more than 140 rushing yards in a single game this season - including three last week. Excluding the team-leading Emmanuel Sanders who's on injured reserve, Courtland Sutton is the only current Broncos player with more than 300 receiving yards this season making them one of just four teams to have a lone player on their active roster (who's been with them all season) with over 300 yards receiving. I could continue to depict this woeful catastrophe that is this Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and Raiders for hours on end, but I'll keep it short and sweet instead...

Oh, boy.

Are you ready for some football?! I mean, seriously, how could you not be after all of that? If not, well, you're obviously a glutton for pain since you've made it this far, so you might as well continue reading the analysis. After all, real life trash can sometimes lead to fantasy treasure.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Date and Start Time: Monday, December 24th at 8:15 p.m. EST
Game Spread: DEN -2.5
Over/Under: 44

Offensive and Defensive Rankings:

Broncos Raiders
Passing Yards 19th 14th
Rushing Yards 11th 26th
Pass Defense 25th 16th
Run Defense 20th 32nd

 

Must Starts

Top Players That You Should Have In Your Lineup

Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)

Lindsay's 991 rushing yards rank fifth in the league and he's well on his way for a 1,000-yard season. His nine rushing touchdowns are also tied for fifth. Both of which put him right at, or slightly below, the numbers of rookie phenom Saquon Barkley. Lindsay also became the first undrafted rookie offensive player in the history of the NFL to be named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday.

What a season it's been.

None of that has anything to do with why you should have him in your fantasy football lineups this week as he's disappeared over his last two games - amassing just 95 scrimmage yards but adding a TD. Neither of those games came against Oakland, however, who have given up 4.9 yards per carry and 123.9 rushing yards per game to opposing backs putting them among the league's worst against the run. That has everything to do with why you should have him in your lineups this week.

Jared Cook (TE, OAK)

Two games ago, the Broncos gave up 210 receiving yards and a touchdown to George Kittle who averages just about 12 more receiving yards per game than Cook. Cook's 18.7-percent target share ranks fourth at the tight end position and leads the team. Cook leads the Raiders in receptions, yards, and touchdowns with his 848 yards and six TDs being nearly double in both of second place Jordy Nelson's 586 yards and three TDs. Cook has seven Top-10 fantasy TE finishes of 14 opportunities and is Top-10 at the position in fantasy points per game.

 

Must Sits

Players To Avoid Putting In Your Lineup

Case Keenum (QB, DEN)

As a whole, this Raiders defense has not been good at preventing the opposing offense from doing whatever the hell in which it is that they desire. If we view them on the micro level, though, Phillip Rivers is the only quarterback to have put up more than 300 passing yards against them this season and this includes matchups with Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, and Andrew Luck.

Now I know, the 32 passing touchdowns Oakland has surrendered are good for the most of any team while Josh Rosen and Jeff Driskel are the only two QBs to have put up less than 15 fantasy points against them over their last 10 games. However, Keenum has thrown one or fewer TD pass in nine of the Broncos 14 games, has provided less than 200 passing yards in three of their last four, has just three more touchdowns tossed than interceptions, and again, Denver is likely to control this game on the ground.

Keenum did put up 14.5 fantasy points when these two teams met back in Week 2, but that was largely the result of a one-yard TD run. And while we could be in for a 225-yard, two-touchdown kind of stat line this time around, we've seen him disappoint despite favorable matchups all season. He's far beyond the point of fantasy irrelevance, and if he goes off, let out a sarcastic "Yay" and then go on about your evening.

Royce Freeman (RB, DEN)

Let me preface this by saying Freeman makes for an interesting DFS sleeper based on the matchup alone. Problem is, he has a total of 131 rushing yards in the five games he's played since returning from an ankle sprain, and outside of the touchdown he scored in Week 11, he's done nothing to warrant fantasy consideration. Unless, of course, the objective of your league is to have players who get the most touches while accruing the fewest statistics. Nonetheless, if you want to roll the dice on him finding the end zone, he should receive enough carries to register around 40 rushing yards which could result in an economical, double-digit scoring RB. Bold, but possible... I guess.

Doug Martin (RB, OAK)

The intro to this article was quite melancholy in nature, so I don't blame you should you have swiped through it to find yourself here. There was a part about Doug Martin, and Marshawn Lynch, and every other competent running back housed in a generic statement, all of which made Doug Martin being Oakland's leading rusher a rather far from impressive statement.

Martin hasn't reached 75 rushing yards in a single game this season, doesn't offer much additional value in the passing game, and has as many rushing touchdowns this season as Kapri Bibbs and Jay Ajayi. Sure, all three of his touchdowns have come over the last four weeks and he's received double-digit carries in seven of their last eight games, but Denver hasn't allowed a back to find the end zone on the ground since Week 6 and have limited the position to 3.8 yards per carry over that same stretch which would be good for the sixth-fewest if not for the first six games of the season where they were hot garbage.

 

Solid Options/Sleepers

Which Players Will Have Solid Games and Which Could Surprise?

Solid Option - Derek Carr (QB, OAK)

Quietly, Carr ranks Top-10 in passing yards this season with more than the likes of Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. This is true, as crazy as it may sound - I quintuple checked it. That said, the issue with Carr hasn't been yardage, it's the fact that he's thrown fewer touchdown passes than Andy Dalton - who isn't very good and hasn't played in three-straight games. The good news here is that Denver has allowed 25 passing TDs on the year which is good for the 13th-most, and they also placed cornerback Chris Harris on injured reserve Wednesday afternoon. It's not wise to expect a monster showing from the disappointing Carr, but the 16.4 fantasy points he's averaged over his last five games seems like a fairly reasonable floor.

Solid Option - Jalen Richard (RB, OAK)

Richard's production really hasn't changed since the Raiders lost Marshawn Lynch and this is just one of the many unexplained Grudenisms. Sure, he had that one game against Arizona where they decided to run the ball 33 times resulting in Richard seeing 11 carries, but even with that, he's up to just 4.6 carries per game without Lynch in the lineup after seeing 1.8 with him on the field. A marginal boost, at best.

Even more inexplicably, his targets and receptions have both somehow decreased in the Raiders eight games sans Lynch. Gruden's ineptitude aside, Richard has scored double-digit fantasy points (PPR) in nine of 14 contests with at least 50 scrimmage yards in all nine. Denver has done a decent job in containing pass-catching backs, but there's nothing about this matchup to suggest he won't make this his 10th double-digit PPR scoring effort.

Solid Option - Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Sutton has seen at least six targets in each of the three games Denver has played since losing Emmanuel Sanders. He's left many who expected a breakout disappointed by averaging just 47 receiving yards over those three, but he is the proud owner of one of the two touchdown passes Case Keenum has tossed over that stretch. If you like groundbreaking analysis, brace yourself... That's 50-percent of Keenum's TD passes over the last three games, and the Raiders have allowed the most passing TDs in the league with 63-percent of them landing in the hands of a wide receiver - 1.43 per game. Sutton, now -- by some very unreasonable, and even more incorrect, math/logic -- has about a 75-percent chance of finding the end zone on Monday night. It's worth noting that Oakland has been one of the best teams with regards to yardage allowed to the position, but you only get one point per 10 yards. One TD gives you six.

Solid Option - Daesean Hamilton (WR, DEN)

Hamilton has seen at least nine targets in each of Denver's last two games. He's caught seven balls in both, while recording 47 and 46 yards, and is the proud owner of one of the two touchdown passes Case Keenum has tossed over the last three games... That's 50-percent of Keenum's TD passes over the last three, and the Raiders have allowed the most passing TDs in the league with 63-percent of them landing in the hands of a wide receiver - 1.43 per game. Hamilton, now -- by some very unreasonable, and even more incorrect, math/logic -- has about a 75-percent chance of finding the end zone on Monday night. It's worth noting that slot receivers have found the most success against Oakland with regards to yardage - 55-percent of Hamilton's snaps have come from the slot.

Sleeper - Jordy Nelson (WR, OAK)

Despite not dancing since Week 5, Nelson remains the one usable-ish fantasy WR in this Raiders offense and appears to be back to the guy many expected to see all season with 26 targets, 22 receptions, and 233 yards over Oakland's last three. Neither Bradley Roby or Tramaine Brock present an overly exploitable matchup, but Jared Cook can't catch all of the passes.

Oakland has played eight games since their Week 7 bye, and their wide receivers have caught a grand total of four touchdown passes over this eight-game stretch. Brandon LaFell (who hasn't played in a game since Week 11 and is on injured reserve) has two to his name while Marcell Ateman and Seth Roberts have one a piece. Yikes. Expectations should be tempered here. However, unless Isaac Yiadom can't fill in for Chris Harris in the slot, Nelson is the receiver to trust (Seth Roberts becomes the sleeper to target should Yiadom not be able to suit up).

Sleeper - Matt LaCosse (TE, DEN)

Roughly 20-percent of Case Keenum's pass attempts have targeted one of his tight ends this season. Not among the Wentzes, Mahomes, or Lucks of the world, but a respectable allotment nonetheless. Season-ending injuries to Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman have made LaCosse the de facto No. 1 TE in the Broncos offense, and he's looked solid in limited action. There's plenty of sleeper potential to be had here against a Raiders defense which has given up the fourth-most receiving yards, most touchdowns, and the most (possibly second-most depending on your rounding) fantasy points to the TE position.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Colts Conundrum: What To Do With Marlon Mack Hurt

Hello, my name is Eric Samulski, and I spent all my FAAB on Brian Hill last week. Phew! I’m glad we got that out of the way. Now that that’s on the table, we can talk honestly about this week's biggest running back decision: How the Colts will replace Marlon Mack, who just underwent surgery on... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Sunday was one of the worst Sunday's Vegas has had all season and remaining entrants in survivor pools nearly had the same fate. However, the Vikings rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit, the 49ers scored late, and the Cowboys win was much narrower than it should have been. The Saints, Bills, and Ravens took care... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 12

Apologies for not making it out last week. I welcomed my daughter into the world, and while I would have loved the distraction of looking at the ability of offensive lines, that wasn't going to happen. Moving onto Week 12, the outcome of your season-long leagues is now taking shape and you know if you... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Kenny Golladay

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


Wide Receiver Leaderboards Entering the Final Stretch - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Jeff Driskel, Deebo Samuel, Kenyan Drake

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 12

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-8 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-3 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More


Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More


Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More