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Week 14 DraftKings Cheap Tournament Plays: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Lockett, Austin Seferian-Jenkins & More


December is here and we're approaching that home stretch of football where we have plenty of data under our belts to work with. Of course now we can fall into the trap of drawing too much value from year long statistics that really aren't so accurate, as the team looked quite different in its first three games rather than the its most recent three games. Just keep that in mind as you make your calls.

The game with the highest projected point total from Vegas is the 50.5 total for the New Orleans-Tampa matchup. The Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game has also approached the 49.5-50.5 range across the sportsbooks in Vegas. Those are the only two games above 46.5 (Miami-NYG and Buffalo-Philadelphia check in at that mark). Take note of those games in particular when you're seeking out those precious points.

There is still plenty of value calling far down on the player lists in DraftKings' player pool. We'll note the chalkier plays in the "other names" quick hit, but the full blurbs will be reserved for plays that require some context.

 

Week 14's Cheap DraftKings Quarterback DFS Plays

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ): $5,400 - vs. TEN

The hope and thought here is that most people are going to flock to Jameis Winston against the Saints around here, leaving Fitzy pretty underowned against a Titans defense that just got gashed by the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker make for a beastly one-two punch for Fitzpatrick to throw to, and the only real concern here is that the Titans offense can't really get anything going against a Jets defense that should get Darrelle Revis back. Outside of this though, Fitzpatrick seems to have a very healthy floor and provides that potential for a 25-30 point effort week in week out.

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI): $5,100 - vs. WAS

Cutler has struggled as of late, though the 49ers defense (and team) has played better as of late in limiting their opponents to some pretty bland games. Jay Cutler has only thrown for one touchdown in his past three games now, though one of those was against Denver to be fair. Cutler and the Bears are capable of stringing together some great offensive efforts, but they can also fold in on themselves. That's what tournaments are for though, yes? The hope here is that people see Cutler's recent stretch of games combined with the perception of a strong Washington defense thanks to that awful awful excuse for a game on Monday night last week, and stay away from him. Then Cutler rewards those who take him with a lot of Alshon Jeffery love (as Marquess Wilson is still not practicing, though Eddie Royal has gotten in two limited sessions this week), some Zach Miller seam routes, and some screens to Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford out of the backfield.

Other cheap plays: Matt Hasselbeck, $5,200 @JAC, Brian Hoyer, $5,200 vs. NE, Tyrod Taylor, $5,400 vs. PHI.

 

Week 14's Cheap DraftKings Running Back DFS Plays

If you want to play Tim Hightower (RB, NO) you most certainly can, but Lovie Smith's Buccaneers have turned it around defense lately and have been playing well against the run for a while now. He is only $3,000 though and is looking to be involved in the game that is projected to have the most points scored in it though, so it'd be disingenuous for me not to include him. We don't know how his usage will truly break down, and as such he may be a fantastic tournament play because people just don't want to even bother, but I don't see a 20+ point effort out of Hightower. If you absolutely need a minimum price RB though, here you go.

Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN): $4,100 - @PIT

This game could blow up pretty quickly. It is projected to have the second highest point total thanks to Vegas at around 49.5. Many might be scared away by that big red "3rd" next to Bernard's name, but the Steelers are a bit more susceptible to pass catchers out of the backfield rather than those pure north-south runners (cough Jeremy Hill). The Steelers offense has been popping off lately, and with A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert (presumably due to his practicing) in the mix downfield, this could leave plenty of opportunities for Bernard to sneak out and be the checkdown option for Andy Dalton. This holds especially true if the Steelers bring pressure, leaving Dalton needing his short hot read, as well as the conventional thought that you can expose and halt a team from blitzing as much with the screen passes. Not that it's the same team, but this is what happened to the Giants defense last week with Bilal Powell constantly leaking out and beating them. James White should have the spotlight at this price point, leaving Bernard as a good tournament play.

Duke Johnson (RB, CLE): $3,800 - vs. SF

There really aren't that many guys $4,000 and under that have any real upside worth playing, but Johnson could end up having a great game. Johnny Manziel is going to be under center and the Browns general disarray between coach Mike Pettine and the upper management is in its next chapter. The only thing fantasy players care about though, is that Austin Davis is out and Manziel is back in. If Travis Benjamin can play this should help the passing attack as well. With Benjamin, Gary Barnidge, and Brian Hartline out there freeing up some space around the line of scrimmage for Duke Johnson to operate. San Francisco is 25th in the league against pass catching running backs according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA metric (and 32nd overall in fantasy points allowed to running backs on DraftKings). Play it Duke.

Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: James White, $4,100 @HOU, Frank Gore, $4,300 @JAC, Shaun Draughn, $4,800 @CHI, LeGarrette Blount, $4,800 @HOU.

 

Week 14's Cheap DraftKings Wide Receiver DFS Plays

Cecil Shorts (WR, HOU): $3,600 - vs. NE

The Texans are going up against a Patriots squad that is coming off of back to back losses and won't want to be embarrassed at home by Houston for a third straight loss. Not that it's wise to buy too much into a narrative like that, but all the same New England should play very well at home and force Houston to keep up. It is doubtful that Houston can replicate Philadelphia's effort with three touchdowns coming from their defense and special teams, and Malcolm Butler has been playing very well against opponents' #1 receivers (though this shouldn't sway anyone off of DeAndre Hopkins really, dude is bona fide beast). This does leave room for Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts to work in though, and Shorts has been the one getting many more looks and involvement lately in the Houston offense. He may chip in 25-30 yards rushing or even throw for a touchdown! A statline of 8-100-1 is not out of the question here.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA): $3,500 - @BAL

Seattle's offense is firing on all cylinders right now (especially through the passing game) and the Ravens are pretty much "broken" embodied right now. Lockett serves the purpose as a "double dip" with the Seattle defense, who I wager many people will want to fire up this week. He has the return touchdown capability, as well as showing that he is a strong receiver as of late. While Doug Baldwin is (deservedly) getting the majority of the love for the Seattle receivers, Lockett is quietly catching everything thrown his way and with Jimmy Graham out Lockett is a threat to have a great day any given week, let alone against a defense like Baltimore's. Baltimore can play the run pretty well and is still getting cut up by the pass, and with how well Russell Wilson has been slinging the pigskin this game profiles well for the Seattle passing game.

Dwayne Harris (WR, NYG): $3,200 - @MIA

We all know the deal by now, the Giants are basically one big boom or bust team. Why not take the boom/bust guy on the boom/bust team for near minimum price in a tournament setting? Like Lockett, Harris also provides you with that sneaky return touchdown value (which he showed off last week). If you catch Harris in one of his good games where he gets 7-9 targets from Eli Manning, he can put up 6-60-1 for you. The Dolphins really haven't looked all that impressive on defense, but the Giants still cannot run the ball worth a darn and the Giants should need to rely on the passing game yet again. Also, Rueben Randle still stinks and has recently drawn the ire of the organization with his comments about his usage. The game could be ugly, as both Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning have been known to turn in some clunkers, but tournaments are about the upside. If you need to shoehorn in a cheap receiver, Harris could certainly pay off. Irrationally, you'll also have a guy going into Monday night so you'll have hope in that last matchup of the week.

Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: Brian Hartline, $3,700 vs. SF, Ted Ginn, $3,700 vs. ATL, Anquan Boldin, $4,000 @CLE.

 

Week 14's Cheap DraftKings Tight End DFS Plays

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, TB): $2,700 - vs. NO

ASJ only played 21 of 71 snaps in his return to action after being injured for ten weeks with his shoulder injury, and yet he still managed to garner six targets (he caught three of them for 31 yards). He is a sizable target for Jameis Winston to hit up when his perimeter guys in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are covered up (and is sometimes the primary read as well). He is very difficult to match up against, as his size outdoes most defensive backs while his speed leaves most linebackers in his dust. For near minimum price for tight end or even a flex play, you can get a piece of the Tampa offense against the historically terrible Saints defense. While Evans and Jackson take much of the attention and plenty of people are pivoting with Doug Martin, you can snag ASJ and put your eggs in that basket.

Zach Miller (TE, CHI): $2,700 - vs. WAS

Martellus Bennett is out for the year and while Zach Miller has his own rib injury, he is playing through it and Chicago's offense needs to get things going. Washington's defense just isn't that good and Miller has flashed his athleticism this year. Miller should be in for almost all of the snaps on Sunday and, after Alshon Jeffery, is the biggest target for Cutler out there. There's no much to say here other than

Owen Daniels (TE, DEN): $2,800 - vs. OAK

The Raiders aren't as much of a "jackpot" play for the tight end as they seemed in the beginning of the year, but it's still a good shot to take. Vernon Davis came back to practice for Denver, so it isn't as though Daniels has a clear shot at the tight end duties, but all the same Owen Daniels is leading the charge for Denver tight ends. He played 50 snaps compared to Virgil Green's 36 (he is the premier run blocker for Denver) and Davis' 26 snaps. If you're going to take a shot here in Denver, Daniels is a good one. Combine this all with the fact that C.J. Anderson is banged up and Ronnie Hillman hasn't been particularly effective lately, but this is still a run heavy offense. It's a boom or bust scenario and you're hoping that Daniels grabs a touchdown here.

Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: Jacob Tamme, $3,400 @CAR, Scott Chandler, $3,800 @HOU, Julius Thomas, $4,200 vs. IND.

 

Week 14's Cheap DraftKings Defense DFS Plays

I think the Seattle Seahawks are going to be somewhere around 50% owned. Maybe that'll be dug into by Kansas City going against a Chargers squad with zero real wide receivers left. A level below that has the Lions rejuvenated defense at $2,700 against the Rams. For the lowest tiers and cheapest plays, here you are:

Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST: $2,500 - vs. BUF

We saw what the Eagles defense and special teams are capable of against New England last week, but and while it's silly to chase those points alone, this may have been just what the Eagles needed to show themselves that the year is not lost and to keep on pushing. Combine that with a Redskins loss last Monday and a wide open NFC East, and you've got a chance at Philly defending their home field in a big way against Buffalo this week. LeSean McCoy may very well burn them all with dragonbreath in this Narrative-Street return to Philly, and Sammy Watkins might just dominate the secondary, but the Eagles could force Buffalo into some mistakes and Darren Sproles is one of the best return men in the league.

San Francisco 49ers, D/ST: $2,100 @CLE

And then there was Johnny. Manziel is responsible for the Browns offense from here on out, much to the dismay of head coach Mike Pettine. Travis Benjamin isn't 100% either. The 49ers have played pretty well on defense lately, as they held the Cardinals to 19 points in a loss two weeks ago and beat the Bears last week (limiting them to 20 points). While they haven't generated a lot of sacks or turnovers, they're holding their own recently and Manziel is certainly a guy who can fall into some unforced errors. For close to the lowest price point possible, you've got a decent lottery ticket here for the defense.

 

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