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Week 10 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR


Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and am currently 26th out of 130 in 2018.

One can't regularly land in the top 25% of this field by accident and I absolutely think you should hold us accountable by objective measures such as this.  I know some "analysts" exist more for entertainment and Twitter stuff, but I'm here to win. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Week 10 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

With respect to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s low floor -- that is one of a turnover prone, aggressive style with a competent backup available to tag in at any time -- I still have him as my No. 5 QB compared to a No. 9 ECR. I can’t get away from him given Tampa Bay’s terrible run game and lackluster defense. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken isn’t gunshy and Fitzmagic’s yards per attempt easily paces all NFL QBs. I suspect his four-touchdown, two-interception Week 9 outcome is a good mold to chase, as mistakes will be made but in fantasy, we just care about the bottom line.

I also have Carson Wentz and Mitch Trubisky inside my top-10 against ECRs that places them at 11 and 13, respectively. I love the Eagles acquisition of Golden Tate for Wentz’s outlook and like Fitzpatrick, I’m not impressed by Philly’s ground game. The difference is their defense can actually play, but Wentz owns a minimal rushing advantage. Of course, Trubisky’s rushing advantage is probably the best in football and he’s getting Allen Robinson back. It’s also possible that Adam Shaheen returns to deepen the TE ranks. I love the way this team is trending.

Those I’m relatively down on are a triumvirate of quarterbacking greatness in our day: Drew Brees (8 vs. 4 ECR), Tom Brady (11 vs. 8) and Ben Roethlisberger (13 vs. 10). Since Mark Ingram’s return in Week 5, Brees and the Saints are one of three teams to run more than they pass (52%). Mix in some Taysom Hill and my range of outcomes for Brees has a cold chill to it.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brady is clicking with Josh Gordon (which I love!) and has steady Julian Edelman and James White, but I really think he misses prime Gronk. I also must note he’s averaging nearly a yard and a half less on his average pass attempt on the road versus at home. As for Big Ben, I’m merely indifferent towards him in a date with a tough Carolina defense. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in pace of play while Carolina is 23rd, so volume could also be an issue.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 1 0
2 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2 0
3 Cam Newton CAR QB 3 0
4 Jared Goff LAR QB 5 1
5 Ryan Fitzpatrick TB QB 9 4
6 Philip Rivers LAC QB 6 0
7 Matt Ryan ATL QB 7 0
8 Drew Brees NO QB 4 -4
9 Carson Wentz PHI QB 10 1
10 Mitch Trubisky CHI QB 13 3
11 Tom Brady NE QB 8 -3
12 Russell Wilson SEA QB 12 0
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 11 -2
14 Andrew Luck IND QB 14 0
15 Alex Smith WAS QB 16 1
16 Baker Mayfield CLE QB 17 1
17 Andy Dalton CIN QB 15 -2
18 Matthew Stafford DET QB 18 0
19 Dak Prescott DAL QB 19 0
20 Marcus Mariota TEN QB 20 0
21 Eli Manning NYG QB 23 2
22 Blake Bortles JAC QB 21 -1
23 Nick Mullens SF QB 22 -1
24 Josh McCown NYJ QB 27 3
25 Josh Rosen ARI QB 25 0
26 Derek Carr OAK QB 24 -2
27 Brock Osweiler MIA QB 26 -1
28 Josh Allen BUF QB 28 0
29 Derek Anderson BUF QB 30 1
30 Taysom Hill NO QB 29 -1
31 Tyrod Taylor CLE QB 33 2
32 Nathan Peterman BUF QB 31 -1

 

Week 10 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

It appears I like Nick Chubb (9 vs. 11) a bit more than the crowd, while Aaron Jones is three slots above the ECR at 13. Lower down I have Isaiah Crowell (+5) at 24 and Austin Ekeler (+5) at 25.

Chubb creeps into my top-10 thanks to his usage in new OC Freddie Kitchens’ offense. Yes, everyone is rightfully excited about the resurgence of Duke Johnson, but how about Chubb getting six red zone opportunities? Duke had two and not a single WR or TE saw one. Obviously, that will even out a bit, but I love Chubb’s chances at finding the end zone against Atlanta in Week 10 as Cleveland will surely try to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands.

Aaron Jones had his costly fumble and Jamaal Williams isn’t going anywhere, but a game against Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins gives Jones a decent shot at a multi-TD box score in my book. Usually buried and looking at 10 touches per game, Jones and the Pack are favored by nearly 10 points here and should be able to shove this game in Miami’s face throughout the second half.

I hate stumping for Crowell, but the Jets get a slight bump with Josh McCown taking snaps and I can see them grinding Buffalo down in a gritty divisional game with two subpar offenses. For the record, I like what Elijah McGuire is doing and 100% think he’s more talented than Crow, but Isaiah is still the RZ back here. And then Ekeler should benefit from the Chargers being 10-point road favorites over an Oakland defense that could be gashed by any 11 folks in RotoBaller’s chat room at the moment. The Raiders seemingly forgot how to tackle against San Francisco last week, which could be in true form come an Ekeler mop-up drive in the fourth quarter.

Those I don’t like as much are fairly easy fade candidates that I suppose I think need to have said fade emphasized further. I have Adrian Peterson at No. 18 (ECR: 14) thanks to an o-line in shambles and a quietly-tough matchup against a stout Tampa run line that owns the second-highest “Stuff rate” at 29.3% per FootballOutsiders and an adjusted line yards of 3.77, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. With Chris Thompson likely to return and Kapri Bibbs probably not going away entirely, I have a hard time trusting AP.

Then there’s Jordan Howard at No. 19 (ECR: 15), as I don’t bank on another two TDs to salvage his day and vault him into RB2 territory. And finally, we’ve got Mr. Peyton Barber (37 vs. 32 ECR) who I cannot talk myself into playing anywhere. Tampa Bay's defensive line may have a great adjusted line yards value, but their offensive line plays even better defense on their own RBs. The Bucs' 3.41 adjusted line yards is only better than the Giants (3.24) and their actual 3.37 yards per rush isn't far off (and is also second-worst, this time ahead of Arizona's 3.14). The point is that scene is incredibly ugly, but at least it makes Fitzpatrick and the passing offense that much better.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Todd Gurley LAR RB 1 0
2 Melvin Gordon LAC RB 3 1
3 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 5 2
4 Kareem Hunt KC RB 2 -2
5 James Conner PIT RB 4 -1
6 Alvin Kamara NO RB 6 0
7 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 7 0
8 Joe Mixon CIN RB 8 0
9 Nick Chubb CLE RB 12 3
10 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 9 -1
11 James White NE RB 10 -1
12 David Johnson ARI RB 11 -1
13 Aaron Jones GB RB 16 3
14 Marlon Mack IND RB 17 3
15 Tevin Coleman ATL RB 13 -2
16 Matt Breida SF RB 22 6
17 Mark Ingram NO RB 19 2
18 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 14 -4
19 Jordan Howard CHI RB 15 -4
20 Leonard Fournette JAC RB 18 -2
21 Tarik Cohen CHI RB 21 0
22 Dion Lewis TEN RB 20 -2
23 Kerryon Johnson DET RB 24 1
24 Isaiah Crowell NYJ RB 28 4
25 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 30 5
26 Kenyan Drake MIA RB 25 -1
27 Sony Michel NE RB 23 -4
28 Mike Davis SEA RB 26 -2
29 Duke Johnson CLE RB 27 -2
30 LeSean McCoy BUF RB 29 -1
31 Doug Martin OAK RB 31 0
32 Ito Smith ATL RB 32 0
33 Chris Carson SEA RB 55 22
34 Elijah McGuire NYJ RB 34 0
35 Jalen Richard OAK RB 35 0
36 Frank Gore MIA RB 36 0
37 Peyton Barber TB RB 33 -4
38 Jamaal Williams GB RB 39 1
39 Chris Thompson WAS RB 51 12
40 Derrick Henry TEN RB 38 -2
41 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB 37 -4
42 Corey Clement PHI RB 40 -2
43 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 46 3
44 Josh Adams PHI RB 41 -3
45 Nyheim Hines IND RB 42 -3
46 Spencer Ware KC RB 45 -1
47 Alfred Morris SF RB 44 -3
48 LeGarrette Blount DET RB 47 -1
49 Theo Riddick DET RB 43 -6
50 Carlos Hyde JAC RB 48 -2
51 Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB 53 2
52 Giovani Bernard CIN RB 49 -3
53 Chris Ivory BUF RB 57 4
54 Chase Edmonds ARI RB 60 6
55 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 54 -1
56 Rashaad Penny SEA RB 50 -6
57 C.J. Anderson CAR RB 61 4
58 Marcus Murphy BUF RB 56 -2
59 Malcolm Brown LAR RB 59 0
60 Kapri Bibbs WAS RB 52 -8
61 Mark Walton CIN RB 63 2
62 Wayne Gallman NYG RB 65 3
63 Trenton Cannon NYJ RB 58 -5
64 Kenjon Barner NE RB 64 0
65 Deandre Washington OAK RB 62 -3
66 Jordan Wilkins IND RB 66 0
67 Rod Smith DAL RB 67 0
68 Dontrell Hilliard CLE RB 72 4
69 Anthony Sherman KC RB 71 2
70 Stevan Ridley PIT RB 77 7
71 Robert Turbin IND RB 69 -2
72 Kalen Ballage MIA RB 68 -4
73 James Develin NE RB 79 6
74 Benny Cunningham CHI RB 76 2
75 Keith Smith OAK RB 73 -2
76 Patrick DiMarco BUF RB 75 -1
77 Samaje Perine WAS RB 70 -7

 

Week 10 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’d point to Christian Kirk (30 vs. 34 ECR) and D.J. Moore (38 vs. 43 ECR) as my real intrigue guys this week. I think Byron Leftwich’s offense has a good shot at giving Arizona’s offense some life (beyond Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson) and Kirk’s ability to make contested catches, as well as find space, will be needed since Arizona is 16-point dogs in Kansas City. As for Moore, I always love looking at hype trains that fizzled the next week. Moore actually paced all Carolina WRs with an 85% snap count in Week 9, but unorthodox TDs such as Curtis Samuel’s robbed Moore’s potential. The Panthers still got him involved with a nice reverse and I like him to be a factor against a tough Steelers defense.

Then you’ll find me lower on folks such as Tyrell Williams (-4), Golden Tate (-4), Mike Williams (-6) and Chris Godwin (-5). Tate is easy to explain, as I’m bearish for his first game as an Eagle. He never had to compete with a tight end like Zach Ertz over the middle in Detroit and I’m not aggressively ranking him out of the gate. And as for Godwin, I just don’t think he’s established enough to land in WR3 territory with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and now Adam Humphries around him.

Then there are the Williams Chargers, both of whom I dislike (again, relatively) for different reasons. Tyrell is still No. 32 for me so I’m not exactly calling for him to be sat, but my aforementioned love for Ekeler highlights the issue that I think LAC may be done passing -- certainly taking aggressive deep shots -- rather early. This also dampens Mike Williams, but he also suffers because of a low 29% snap count in Week 9. Perhaps that number will rebound but I have to react to it here.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Michael Thomas NO WR 2 1
2 Julio Jones ATL WR 3 1
3 Antonio Brown PIT WR 1 -2
4 Davante Adams GB WR 4 0
5 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR 5 0
6 Tyreek Hill KC WR 6 0
7 Keenan Allen LAC WR 7 0
8 Robert Woods LAR WR 8 0
9 Mike Evans TB WR 9 0
10 Brandin Cooks LAR WR 10 0
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 11 0
12 Cooper Kupp LAR WR 13 1
13 Tyler Boyd CIN WR 12 -1
14 Marvin Jones DET WR 15 1
15 Julian Edelman NE WR 17 2
16 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 16 0
17 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 18 1
18 Josh Gordon NE WR 14 -4
19 Kenny Golladay DET WR 19 0
20 Sammy Watkins KC WR 42 22
21 T.Y. Hilton IND WR 20 -1
22 DeSean Jackson TB WR 22 0
23 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 21 -2
24 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 25 1
25 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 26 1
26 Corey Davis TEN WR 27 1
27 Devin Funchess CAR WR 23 -4
28 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 24 -4
29 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 29 0
30 Christian Kirk ARI WR 32 2
31 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 31 0
32 Tyrell Williams LAC WR 28 -4
33 Taylor Gabriel CHI WR 34 1
34 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 39 5
35 Amari Cooper DAL WR 30 -5
36 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 35 -1
37 D.J. Moore CAR WR 40 3
38 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR 37 -1
39 Golden Tate PHI WR 33 -6
40 Randall Cobb GB WR 44 4
41 Donte Moncrief JAC WR 38 -3
42 Allen Robinson CHI WR 56 14
43 Jordy Nelson OAK WR 46 3
44 Mike Williams LAC WR 36 -8
45 Chris Godwin TB WR 41 -4
46 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 43 -3
47 John Ross CIN WR 58 11
48 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR 51 3
49 Maurice Harris WAS WR 47 -2
50 Anthony Miller CHI WR 45 -5
51 Pierre Garcon SF WR 57 6
52 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 50 -2
53 Keelan Cole JAC WR 53 0
54 Danny Amendola MIA WR 55 1
55 Josh Doctson WAS WR 48 -7
56 David Moore SEA WR 49 -7
57 Cole Beasley DAL WR 59 2
58 Kenny Stills MIA WR 60 2
59 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 62 3
60 Devante Parker MIA WR 52 -8
61 Chris Hogan NE WR 61 0
62 Jamison Crowder WAS WR 86 24
63 Cordarrelle Patterson NE WR 67 4
64 Taywan Taylor TEN WR 77 13
65 Tajae Sharpe TEN WR 69 4
66 Kelvin Benjamin BUF WR 63 -3
67 Jakeem Grant MIA WR 71 4
68 Alex Erickson CIN WR 80 12
69 Brandon LaFell OAK WR 70 1
70 Adam Humphries TB WR 54 -16
71 Ryan Grant IND WR 85 14
72 Seth Roberts OAK WR 79 7
73 Nelson Agholor PHI WR 64 -9
74 Jermaine Kearse NYJ WR 73 -1
75 Martavis Bryant OAK WR 68 -7
76 Michael Gallup DAL WR 65 -11
77 Zay Jones BUF WR 75 -2
78 Rashard Higgins CLE WR 72 -6
79 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 66 -13
80 Cameron Meredith NO WR
81 James Washington PIT WR 82 1
82 D.J. Chark JAC WR 81 -1
83 Chester Rogers IND WR 74 -9
84 Allen Hurns DAL WR 78 -6
85 Kendrick Bourne SF WR 83 -2
86 Cody Core CIN WR 94 8
87 Trent Taylor SF WR 109 22
88 Dontrelle Inman IND WR 84 -4
89 Austin Carr NO WR 99 10
90 Chad Williams ARI WR 91 1
91 Equanimeous St. Brown GB WR 87 -4
92 Brandon Powell DET WR 100 8
93 TJ Jones DET WR 89 -4
94 Chris Conley KC WR 76 -18
95 Demarcus Robinson KC WR 103 8
96 Josh Malone CIN WR 107 11
97 Bennie Fowler NYG WR 90 -7
98 Travis Benjamin LAC WR 97 -1
99 Terrelle Pryor BUF WR 93 -6
100 Jarius Wright CAR WR 92 -8
101 Damion Ratley CLE WR 95 -6
102 Deontay Burnett NYJ WR 105 3
103 Justin Hardy ATL WR 117 14
104 Dante Pettis SF WR 96 -8
105 Ryan Switzer PIT WR 102 -3
106 Breshad Perriman CLE WR 106 0
107 Zach Pascal IND WR 113 6
108 Jordan Matthews PHI WR 108 0
109 Josh Bellamy CHI WR 104 -5
110 Andre Holmes BUF WR 112 2
111 Russell Shepard NYG WR 127 16
112 Michael Floyd WAS WR 119 7
113 Jaron Brown SEA WR 110 -3
114 Josh Reynolds LAR WR 98 -16
115 J.J. Nelson ARI WR 111 -4
116 Marvin Hall ATL WR 114 -2
117 Richie James SF WR 101 -16
118 Rishard Matthews NYJ WR 115 -3
119 Phillip Dorsett NE WR 88 -31
120 Charone Peake NYJ WR 135 15
121 J'mon Moore GB WR 126 5
122 Deonte Thompson DAL WR 120 -2
123 Damiere Byrd CAR WR 128 5
124 Dwayne Harris OAK WR 121 -3
125 Justin Watson TB WR 137 12
126 Leonte Carroo MIA WR 138 12
127 Ray-Ray McCloud BUF WR 130 3
128 Javon Wims CHI WR 140 12
129 Darius Jennings TEN WR 122 -7
130 Nick Williams LAR WR 139 9
131 Khadarel Hodge LAR WR 143 12
132 Darrius Heyward-Bey PIT WR 142 10
133 Marcus Kemp KC WR 145 12

 

Week 10 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I don’t really know what to do with Rob Gronkowski yet, so while my ranking of him at No. 5 looks positive compared to an ECR of 11, it’s more of a placeholder at the moment. Don’t read into it beyond respecting his TD potential should he be healthy in a lackluster TE field.

As for real commentary, I’ve got Jordan Reed at No. 6 (ECR: 12) and Benjamin Watson at 13 (ECR: 17). Reed gets to face the Bucs defense and I imagine he’ll come close to his 12 targets from two weeks ago here. Washington’s offensive line is battered and Alex Smith isn’t throwing it deep (nor can I trust a Maurice Harris takeover just yet), so I’m pegging Reed for roughly seven catches for 50 yards and a score. That game has an over/under of 52 at a couple of books in Vegas already and could be a fun one if Smith is backed into a corner by Fitzmagic.

Then there’s Watson, who has scored in two of his last three games and gets to play in the game that Vegas has slapped with the highest projected total at 55. I know The New Orleans Alvin Kamara’s are a run game and that I am relatively lower on Brees, but beyond the top tier of TE you are simply hunting touchdowns. TD hunters would be wise to target the games where points are flowing, and it doesn’t hurt that the Bengals have given up a 53-602-5 stat line to TEs -- “good” for a top-five composite TE rank.

I’m lower on Trey Burton (-3) and Evan Engram (-4) with the former being a bit eyebrow-raising and the latter probably shocking no one. Engram is the third option at best in a below-average offense that at least finds itself trailing often, but his own battles with drops take him down a notch and we just saw San Francisco hold Jared Cook to peanuts in Week 9.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Travis Kelce KC TE 1 0
2 Zach Ertz PHI TE 2 0
3 O.J. Howard TB TE 4 1
4 George Kittle SF TE 3 -1
5 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 12 7
6 Jordan Reed WAS TE 11 5
7 Jimmy Graham GB TE 7 0
8 Greg Olsen CAR TE 5 -3
9 David Njoku CLE TE 6 -3
10 Jared Cook OAK TE 9 -1
11 Trey Burton CHI TE 8 -3
12 Jack Doyle IND TE 10 -2
13 Benjamin Watson NO TE 17 4
14 Austin Hooper ATL TE 13 -1
15 Vance McDonald PIT TE 14 -1
16 Eric Ebron IND TE 16 0
17 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 18 1
18 Evan Engram NYG TE 15 -3
19 Geoff Swaim DAL TE 33 14
20 Nick Vannett SEA TE 22 2
21 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 19 -2
22 Vernon Davis WAS TE 20 -2
23 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 21 -2
24 Cameron Brate TB TE 23 -1
25 Jesse James PIT TE 24 -1
26 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 27 1
27 Gerald Everett LAR TE 25 -2
28 Michael Roberts DET TE 30 2
29 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 26 -3
30 Ed Dickson SEA TE 32 2
31 Virgil Green LAC TE 37 6
32 Jason Croom BUF TE 36 4
33 Logan Thomas BUF TE 39 6
34 Antonio Gates LAC TE 29 -5
35 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 28 -7
36 James O'Shaughnessy JAC TE 43 7
37 Tyler Higbee LAR TE 31 -6
38 Charles Clay BUF TE 34 -4
39 Luke Willson DET TE 35 -4
40 Demetrius Harris KC TE 38 -2
41 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE 42 1
42 Josh Hill NO TE 41 -1
43 Luke Stocker TEN TE 44 1
44 Neal Sterling NYJ TE 47 3
45 David Grinnage JAC TE 40 -5
46 Blake Bell JAC TE 56 10
47 Nick O'Leary MIA TE 45 -2
48 A.J. Derby MIA TE 54 6
49 Dalton Schultz DAL TE 57 8
50 Rico Gathers DAL TE 53 3
51 Jordan Leggett NYJ TE 49 -2
52 Lance Kendricks GB TE 50 -2
53 Jacob Hollister NE TE 69 16
54 Darren Fells CLE TE 48 -6
55 Seth DeValve CLE TE 55 0
56 Dwayne Allen NE TE 60 4
57 Eric Tomlinson NYJ TE 51 -6
58 Rhett Ellison NYG TE 61 3
59 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 52 -7
60 Jeremy Sprinkle WAS TE 80 20
61 Derek Carrier OAK TE 64 3
62 Levine Toilolo DET TE 67 5
63 Xavier Grimble PIT TE 79 16
64 Garrett Celek SF TE 58 -6
65 Eric Saubert ATL TE 66 1
66 Lee Smith OAK TE 68 2
67 Logan Paulsen ATL TE 62 -5
68 Dion Sims CHI TE 71 3
69 Durham Smythe MIA TE 78 9
70 Darrell Daniels SEA TE 77 7
71 Ian Thomas CAR TE 59 -12

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