RADIO
With pitchers having gained the upper hand over batters in recent years, many fantasy baseball owners have adopted a strategy in which they put off drafting the majority of their starting pitchers until the later rounds. On paper it’s a sound strategy. However, every draft has its own rhythm, and as a fantasy owner you have to react to the nuances of your draft. You can decide to wait on drafting pitchers, but if your fellow draft mates start making an early run on middle-tier starters then you may need to react accordingly.
The pitching landscape is constantly changing. The loss of Ranger ace Yu Darvish and Blue Jay Marcus Stroman for the season and the uncertainty surrounding some big names like Adam Wainwright and Chris Sale are going to affect your league's draft.
If you do decide to hold off on picking up starting pitching, you must be able to work the draft board and identify the players that can add value to your team based on their ADP. In order to help you pinpoint these type of players, here are some starting pitching sleeper candidates that should all be available in the later rounds of your draft.
Editor's Note: You can read about more fantasy baseball draft sleepers and undervalued players for all positions. And don't forget to check out our famous ADP Draft Sleepers tool to win your drafts.
Jesse Hahn (SP, OAK)
It’s not often that minor league statistics can be used to predict the performance of a future major leaguer, but when it comes to Jesse Hahn it’s safe to say the writing has been on the wall all along. Hahn has just 73.1 innings of major league experience but in that short body of work he has demonstrated the same characteristics that made him a minor league standout. Hahn’s a strikeout-per-inning, groundball-throwing pitcher who keeps the ball in the park. He relies on his fastball and curve, but he’ll also sneak in a changeup or slider to keep hitters off guard.
I usually shy away from recommending pitchers who cross over from the NL to the AL, but with half of Hahn’s starts taking place in pitcher friendly Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, he should have no problem maintaining his low WHIP and HR/FB ratio. Hahn should be available after the 20th round of most standard leagues, but if he performs like he is capable, this will be the last time you’ll be able to get him this cheaply.
Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE)
Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, former top prospect Carlos Carrasco finally enjoyed a breakout year for the Indians in 2014. He flourished once he was inserted into the Indians’ starting rotation, posting a 1.72 ERA while striking out 86 in the 78.2 innings he pitched after the All-Star break.
Carrasco was a groundball machine, and displayed pinpoint control as evidenced by his 1.95 BB/9 rate. Using his hard slider more frequently than in the 2013 season along with his 95 MPH fastball helped him generate a stellar 9.4 K/9 rate. He registered an excellent 2.44 FIP and did a great job of keeping the ball in the park (.47 HR/9 rating). Carrasco is a bargain who should be available in the 11th round of your average 12 team standard draft.
Michael Pineda (SP, NYY)
Michael Pineda is a perfect example of the kind of pitching talent that should be available for you in the later rounds of your fantasy baseball draft. Pineda has a reputation of being dumb (remember how well he hid that pine tar on his neck last season?) and brittle, but you can use that and his 219 ADP to your advantage. In between his suspension for the “pine tar incident” and a long DL stint, Pineda did show flashes of brilliance last season. His first-strike and swinging-strike percentages were well above average. Not only did Pineda do a good job of getting ahead of batters, but once batters were behind in the count they had a tough time getting their bat on the ball. Pineda also had an extremely low 5.4 HR/FB rate last season.
The fact that the velocity on his fastball was a couple MPH lower last season when compared to 2011 is a bit concerning, but his pinpoint control made him a very effective pitcher down the stretch in 2014. Yes, Pineda is injury prone and hasn’t thrown more than 84 innings in a season, but if you take his very good 2014 season into account he can be a very valuable pick for you in the 19th or 20th round of your 2015 fantasy baseball draft.
Michael Wacha (SP, STL)
Much was expected from Michael Wacha last season after he posted a 9.05 K/9 rate and 2.78 ERA in nine starts during his 2013 rookie campaign. Unfortunately, a stress reaction in his right shoulder forced the Cardinals to shut him down for seven weeks in 2014. Once he came back in September, he was unable to effectively throw the changeup that had been one of his big out pitches. Prior to the injury, Wacha would primarily use his 93 MPH fastball to set up his 85 MPH change. Late last season he was forced to substitute his changeup with a curveball. He also threw his cutter more often.
When Wacha was at his best in 2013 his deceptive motion caused his fastball to approach the plate on a downward angle. Batters would lay off and end up being punched out on strikes. This preseason, Wacha has got his tilt back, which is bad news for opposing hitters but good news for fantasy baseball owners looking for value in their draft. Wacha is currently being chosen in the 14th round in the average 12 team fantasy baseball league.
Henderson Alvarez (SP, MIA)
Henderson Alvarez compiled a 12-7 won/loss record along with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts last season and yet he is consistently available after the 20th round in most 12 team leagues this season. The Marlins have enough belief in Alvarez’s talent to make him their opening day starter while Jose Fernandez is still recuperating from Tommy Johnson surgery. Fantasy owners tend to shy away from him because of Alvarez’s lack of strikeouts.
Although he had just a 5.34 K/9 rate last season, the good news is that he is a control pitcher who doesn’t issue many walks. Alvarez’s hard sinking two seam fastball has always helped him throw a high percentage of out-producing ground balls. Alvarez’s ERA has been trending downward in each of the last three seasons and although it might regress a bit in 2015, you can still expect it to hover in the high-two or low-three range. Based on where you should be able to pick him up in your draft, consider Alvarez a solid addition to your fantasy staff.
