RADIO
Josh Wiesel details how the James Harden trade could impact the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers. He takes a look at winners, losers, and fantasy basketball outlooks for some of the key players involved.
In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, the nation was hit with a Woj bomb. James Harden got his wish and is no longer a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. As part of a multi-player deal, the beard will be heading west to join the Los Angeles Clippers. Harden, who grew up in Southern California, now reunites with former teammate Russell Westbrook (more on the impact of that soon). He also joins forces with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to form one of the most talented foursomes in NBA history. How it will play out on the court is something we can only speculate on for now.
The 34-year-old Harden will be on his fourth team in as many seasons. He had a rock-solid year for Philly in the 2022-23 season, scoring 21 points, pulling down 6.1 rebounds, and leading the league with 10.7 assists per game in 58 games. He was motivated to get out of Philadelphia all offseason and the Harden-Embiid era is no more. A motivated Harden can still be a really good and effective player.
In this article, I'll be breaking down what this trade means for fantasy purposes for the Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers. Click here for more great fantasy basketball and betting coverage from the RotoBaller team.
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Sixers Fantasy Outlooks
Maxey is off to a blitzing start this season, averaging 30.3 points, 6.3 assists, and 6.7 rebounds per game. The 23-year-old guard is the biggest winner in this whole James Harden trade saga. Maxey is currently ranked inside the top five for Yahoo nine category standard leagues. It is a lofty goal to expect him to stay there, but the energetic Maxey could very well be in position for a top-20 or better fantasy season.
Last season, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 19.7 field goal attempts in 13 games without James Harden. He is going to get insane volume and is averaging 38.7 minutes in the early part of the season. Plenty of assist opportunities will be there for Maxey, as he is averaging over 12 potential assists per game. The Sixers guard is an outside threat, averaging nearly five made triples per game. Philadelphia loves him, and so should fantasy owners.
The ever-steady Tobias Harris will just keep doing his thing. Providing a little of everything, Harris is averaging 19.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, two assists, and over one steal and block. It's still early, but he's been very efficient, and with Harden out of the picture, Tobias is the clear number-three option on this team. He'll have more chances to be aggressive and get to the foul line, where he has shot it at 83.1 percent for his career.
In 20 games without Harden last season, the Sixers forward averaged 18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and nearly a steal per game. Harris is also playing just under 37 minutes per game to start the season. He probably won't play minutes like that all season, but Nick Nurse has been known to play his best players. Harris should nicely outperform the 89th ADP ranking Yahoo had on him before the season.
This one is a little more interesting. Embiid is a beast and should have another monster season, but it can't be underestimated how much he and Harden played off each other. Last season, Embiid made 728 field goals. Of those, 456 were converted on assists from his teammates. James Harden assisted on 244 of those 456 made baskets. The next closest was Tyrese Maxey at 66. Harden assisted over 53 percent of Embiid's baskets on assist and over 33 percent of his total field goals made.
This could mean something as the season goes along, or it just might not matter. Early returns from Embiid this season have been excellent. The Sixers center is averaging 31 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 3.0 blocks, and over 59 effective field goal percentage.
Without Harden, he'll have to develop better chemistry with Maxey and De'Anthony Melton. Embiid can do everything and is already seeing increased assist and rebounding opportunities. He should continue to be one of the best players in fantasy going forward.
De'Anthony Melton
Melton has had a good start to the season as the Sixers starting shooting guard. Averaging 8.0 points, 5.3 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals, this has placed Melton just outside of the top 115. He'll continue to be a good source of steals, but if he can improve his percentages, he has a decent outlook.
The 28-year-old Oubre is providing surprising top-40 returns early in the season. Playing a little over 29 minutes a game, he is dropping 19 points per game on 56.6 effective field goal shooting. The top-40 value is unsustainable, but he can score and have occasional hot nights. I wouldn't expect much more.
Reed is only averaging 13.7 minutes to start the season. With P.J. Tucker gone, he could potentially be in line for some starts. Philly will likely opt to start Tobias Harris or one of the veteran forwards they got in the trade at the four spot. Reed is still a player to keep an eye on and has shown flashes throughout his career.
The Four NEW Sixers
I wanted to touch on the guys Philadelphia added - Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris, and KJ Martin.
None of those four have made much of a fantasy impact this season.
Batum and Covington will be better real-life additions to the Sixers than in fantasy land.
KJ Martin is an interesting addition to Philly. The six-foot-six forward is still only 22 years old. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and shot just under 57 percent on his field goal attempts in 82 games with the Houston Rockets. Martin is a good player and something that could earn minutes on this Sixers team. I like his upside over the older Batum, Covington, and Morris. Pick him up if you are in a deeper league.
**Keep an eye on the Sixers potentially making another trade. In the event of another trade, we'll be right back here breaking down the fantasy implications.
Clippers Fantasy Impact
James Harden
The man of the hour. Harden will be an interesting fit alongside Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. His scoring has gone down in recent years, but he's excellent at distributing the basketball, averaging over 10 assists per game over the last three seasons. Last season, he averaged 21 points per game, which was his lowest since 2011-12, his third year in the league.
I would expect him to play more of a distributor role again this season. He's historically been a good source of everything, and the Clippers will rely on their top four guys. It's more of a wait-and-see approach with Harden because he and Embiid were so lethal together. Yahoo had him 30th in their preseason ADP; that number sounds right.
Russell Westbrook
Potentially the biggest loser in all this fantasy-wise is Russell Westbrook. Averaging 11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists to start the season, the Clippers added a player that will take the ball out of Westbrook's hands. He is also shooting 60 percent to start the season, but if history tells us anything, that number will drop. The biggest problem with Westbrook has always been his inability to consistently hit shots. He'll likely continue to start (although I think a sixth-man role would get the most out of him), but production should go down. Fewer shots may not be a bad thing for him and could actually help improve his percentages with less volume. I wouldn't press the panic button just yet, but I'd quietly start looking for it in my house.
Kawhi Leonard & Paul George
Grouping these two together, as they should both naturally take fantasy hits with Harden's arrival. Kawhi is Kawhi, averaging 23 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.7 steals. From deep, he's hitting over 54 percent on over seven attempts per game. In terms of field goals, Kawhi is averaging 17.3 per game and shooting just over 48 percent. He could see his field goal attempts go down, but he should remain productive. As always, he's a threat to miss games with his eyes on the playoffs.
Paul George has been awesome to start the season. Returning top-10 value, PG is putting up over 27 points per game, along with 4.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.7 steals. He's shooting it really well; you just have to hope he can build some chemistry with Harden. As a catch-and-shoot guy, PG is an intriguing fit with a passer like Harden. He's likely a top 20-30 guy the rest of the way than his current sixth.
What hurts these players' fantasy outlooks is the way the Clippers play. They are generally a slow-paced team and in the bottom ten for field goal attempts per game. Fewer shots mean fewer opportunities for stats and decreased production.
Terance Mann, Norman Powell, and Bones Hyland
Powell and Hyland could provide decent scoring and outside shooting but don't expect much more. P.J. Tucker should also get some minutes, which ultimately takes time away from this group. Hold onto these three for now in deeper leagues, as the big four have been susceptible to injuries and missing games over the course of their careers.
