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The Daily Divide: Week Three DFS


Daily Divide: Week Three

Matt and Nathan each offer Week 3 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. Matt probably makes more good points than Nathan though, over the long haul, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Nathan: I’m not sure why I told Matt he could write the opening paragraph. I’m right way more than him. I mean, I did recommend Tyler Eifert in Week One, so….I'm pretty much a genius.

You can follow the great Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle -- and the just okay Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff. Nathan: ...Seriously?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Three

QB: Tom Brady vs JAC
My cash game quarterback strategy has been fairly simple so far: find the cheapest acceptable top quarterback. On Draftkings/Fanduel this week, that answer is Tom Brady. (I'll pivot to Aaron Rodgers on sites where he is cheaper.) The Patriots host the Jaguars as the biggest favorites of the week with a spread of 13.5 and the highest projected team total at 34 points. A quarterback at home with a high team total is as safe as you are going to get in DFS. I am playing Brady with confidence this weekend. (Note: on sites where Aaron Rodgers is cheaper than Brady, I am pivoting to Rodgers)

Stacking: I think Rob Gronkowski is definitely an option for a Brady/Gronkowski stack. They provide one of the highest floors and ceilings among stacking options this weekend.

Matt: Brady is fantasy’s current QB1 for good reason. Hard to argue with an elite quarterback on the tear Brady is. Love this one, and Julian Edelman makes a reasonable stacking option as well.

 

RB: Le’Veon Bell vs STL
Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension to the 3rd highest scoring team in football through 2 weeks. When you add arguably the best running back in the NFL to an offense that was already potent, you can expect big things. And Vegas does expect big things with a 23.75 team total despite facing a solid defense in St. Louis on the road. Not that too many NFL defenses are overly tired in week 3, but Bell does have fresh legs and I expect the top scoring running back in fantasy football last year to have a big season debut on Sunday. In short, best fantasy running back + amazing offense = good DFS play. Hashtag math.

Matt: Hashtag agree. You note PIT is third total scoring; I’ll add they’re first in total offensive yards. Play Bell or not, he deserves consideration.

 

WR: Jarvis Landry vs BUF
Jarvis Landry is Ryan Tannehill’s best friend forever. Landry has been targeted 22 times in the first two games, hauling in 8 passes in each game. Landry is looking like he has the type of floor you are looking for when filling out your cash game lineups each week. Despite the solid performances in the first two games, Landry is still very fairly priced on most sites. Buffalo does have one of the best defense in the NFL, but with the way Landry is scoring, I don’t think his points are very matchup dependent.

Stacking: This is one of the situation where I like the receiver, but I’m not a fan of the quarterback. Ryan Tannehill is not a stack option for me this week against a stout Buffalo defense.

Matt: Suggesting a guy I’ve suggested in both Weeks One and Two? Way to be. At some point I may become nervous about his price, but we're not there yet on most sites.

 

TE: Jared Cook vs PIT
Since I took Gronk last week, I figured I’d let Matt have him this week. I’m such a nice guy. This week, my favorite punt tight end is Jared Cook. Cook has five catches in each of the first two games, which alone nearly pays off his near minimum price on sites with full PPR scoring. Cook is the closest thing to a primary option the Rams have and this week he faces a Steelers defense that has allowed the 6th most passing yards through 2 weeks. Playing Cook provides a lot of lineup flexibility this weekend and his floor is higher than some of the higher prices tight ends.

Stacking: In GPP’s, I’d consider making a Nick Foles/Jared Cook stack depending on site pricing.

Matt: Tangent One: What the hell is going on with Brian Quick?? The Rams need him badly. Tangent Two: Just to repeat: do not stack Foles/Cook in cash games. I can’t argue against testing that stack in a GPP, which deserves a few chuckles. Actual Point: I suppose Cook makes as fine a punt this week as any, but I don’t feel cash game comfortable with any non-Gronk options this week. (See Below)

Nathan: My draft-only MFL10 leagues weep over whatever the hell is going on with Brian Quick. I blame Jeff Fisher's Mustache.

Matt: This is a DFS column, Nathan! (But yes, blame the Stache!)

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Three

QB: Carson Palmer vs SF
After finishing as QB2 in Week one, Palmer finished as QB12 in Week Two, but was just one point shy of being QB8. Spanning his last eight games (six healthy games in 2014 plus two in 2015), Palmer is averaging a 265-2.25 line while sporting a 63% completion rate, throwing for multiple TDs in every game he’s finished during that span. This week he plays at home versus what appears to be a rather middling fantasy defense. While Palmer is currently fantasy’s QB2, you can pay QB8-QB10 pricing, everywhere. His high floor and high ceiling are certainly attractive, but being underpriced everywhere certainly helps too.

Stacking: Many will tout John Brown this weekend, who is a solid GPP stacking option. In cash games, though, Larry Fitzgerald is the better stacking candidate. With a high floor, high ceiling, and steady target volume with Palmer under center, Fitzgerald figures to be a key part of this Arizona offense week in and week out.

Nathan: I like Palmer this weekend, I just prefer to go a little more expensive in cash games and usually a little cheaper if I’m bargain shopping for a GPP QB.

 

RB: Danny Woodhead at MIN
Thus far in 2015, Woodhead has played around 60% of the Chargers’ passing plays and 30% of the team’s running plays. This high level of offensive involvement offers Woodhead a high weekly floor, and his red-zone involvement helps with the upside. Despite being RB6 through two weeks, Woodhead continues to be priced closer to RB30. (Dion Lewis is in a similar boat FWIW.) Eventually, rookie Melvin Gordon may get more involved. Eventually, Woodhead’s DFS price may rise to match his production Until something  changes, though, Woodhead makes for a terrific weekly DFS play,

Nathan: Danny Woodhead is in all my weekly cash game lineups this week. Totally on board here

 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs PHI
In pure talent terms, Brandon Marshall may be a top 10 NFL WR. Coming into the 2015 season,though, some were concerned the injuries may have added up, and even more were concerned about his role on a bad offense. Through two weeks, the Jets offense has performed quite well, however, and Marshall has been a big part of that, putting up a 6-62-1 line in W1 and a 7-101-1 line in W2. We targeted the Eagles defense with our QBs and WRs freely last year  and so far this year, we haven’t found great reason to discontinue doing so. Especially with Decker’s status up in the air, it would seem his floor would pay off his price nicely, and there is certainly plenty of upside - ideal for cash.

Stacking: I’m not a fan of paying down for QB in cash games, but if Eric Decker suits up Ryan Fitzpatrick makes an intriguing GPP stack.

Nathan: I like Marshall this week, I like him even more if Decker is out.

 

TE: Gronk vs JAC
In Week One, Gronk finished as TE1. In Week Two, Gronk finished as TE2. There aren’t really any punt TE options I love this weekend and there’s plenty of value at other positions, so Gronk will be in every one of lineups. A decision so simple, I don't even have to use his full name to explain it.

Nathan: As I mentioned earlier in this post, I’m definitely on board with the Brady/Gronk stack this week.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Nick Foles, Justin Forsett , James Starks, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski

Matt likes: Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Dion Lewis, Latavius Murray, A.J. Green, Julian Edelman, Stevie Johnson

 

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