The Cut List – Who to Drop for Week 16?

December 21, 2021

Robert Lorge's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves in Week 16. He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.

I can't recall a week – much less a playoff one – with as much craziness and randomness that Week 15 brought us and I for one am glad that it's over. For anyone who was able to advance in their playoff game despite all that's happened, a big kudos to you. To all of you who lost, just remember, while the regular season has a lot of skill to it, the playoffs are a lot more luck (or bad luck). To all of those whose games are still up in the air despite it being Tuesday morning, I wish you nothing but the best.

With just 2–3 weeks left, there shouldn't be too many upside plays left on the waiver wire and fantasy managers should be prioritizing their handcuffs and players with good matchups in the next few weeks. It's important to stay active and if there's a player on your bench you don't think you're going to use, there's no reason to hang onto them. Even if you don't need a defense or a tight end, sometimes the best offense is a good defense. Keeping good waiver additions from your playoff competition can be just as useful as adding a good streaming piece.

Hopefully, Week 16 will bring a little bit more consistency as we get deeper in the fantasy playoffs. However, Travis Kelce has already been added to the Covid-19 list. This could be a week – a fantasy playoff – where playing defense on the waiver wire could really pay dividends so pay attention to guys you can safely move on from, even if it's for a player that you don't necessarily need or want.

Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 16?

Ryan Tannehill, Tennesse Titans

58.5% rostered

Since Derrick Henry went on IR in Week 9, Ryan Tannehill has been the QB19, averaging just 14.50 points. He's averaging just 228 passing yards per game and 1.07 touchdowns per game. The one aspect that is keeping Tannehill from a complete bust is the fact that he has seven rushing touchdowns on the season. He has found the end zone on the ground four times since Henry's IR stint. On one hand, you could argue without Henry that increases Tannehill's chance to punch in some of those short-yardage runs. On the other hand, fantasy managers could argue his 14.50 point per game average could be even worse if he didn't have seven rushing touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.8 carries per game since Week 9 – based on that limited rushing volume, it's unlikely to expect the rushing touchdowns to continue.

Even though the Titans could theoretically get A.J. Brown back in Week 16, there's just no way fantasy managers can comfortably put Tannehill into their starting lineup in a win-or-go-home situation. Since Week 9, Tannehill has not had one game – not one – with more than 19 points. He does have one game with less than 10 points though.

Running Backs to Drop for Week 16?

David Johnson, Houston Texans

39.4% rostered

Amazingly, David Johnson is being out-snapped and out-played by Rex Burkhead. Nothing further needs to be said here. Johnson played just 20% of the snaps in Week 15 while Burkhead logged 64% of the snaps. Despite trading Mark Ingram and cutting Phillip Lindsay, Johnson's two primary competitors at the beginning of the season, Johnson has still been unable to take a leading role in this backfield.

Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 16?

Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

76.3% rostered

Jones returned in Week 14 and didn't play a full regiment of snaps, but he still registered six targets. That was a positive step in the right direction considering he only played 45% of the snaps. The hope was that he would get up to that 75% threshold and that six targets would turn into eight or maybe even more. Instead, Julio left Week 15 with another hamstring injury.

Tennessee Titans' Julio Jones a DNP on first injury report for Thursday Night Football game vs. 49ers. https://t.co/ADD2Qy7Mwa

— Tennessean (@Tennessean) December 21, 2021

He didn't practice on Monday and there's no reason to expect Julio on the field this Thursday night. He had an opportunity to make something happen with Brown on IR, but another injury squandered that and his 2021 season is now completely lost.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

73.2% Rostership

Jeudy was on the Hot Seat last week and now, after a goose egg in Week 15, he can absolutely be dropped. He has not scored double-digit points in half-PPR scoring since Week 1. Since he returned from his IR stint, he's averaged 6.3 points per game. The lone bright spot has been the fact that he's led the Broncos in targets per game during that time, but now with a quarterback change on tap for Week 16, that could change. Drew Lock is more of a YOLO-quarterback, which might actually give Courtland Sutton some low-end flex appeal, but for Jeudy, who lives on short, accurate and timing passes, he's likely to struggle with the switch.

This passing offense is one of the worst in the league, completely eliminating any kind of upside Jeudy may have had this offseason. Now, he's not even worth holding onto.

Tight Ends to Drop for Week 16?

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

45.5% rostered

Conklin was a hot add when Adam Thielen went down with a high ankle sprain. The passing offense in Minnesota has been extremely consolidated between Justin Jefferson and Thielen, so the thinking was clear. With no more Thielen, there was ample opportunity for someone to step up. That someone just hasn't been Conklin. In Week 14, he had three half-PPR points. Through three quarters of Week 15, he has just one catch for seven yards. I highly doubt the fourth quarter will offer any sort of optimism.

Thielen was a game-time decision in Week 15, which means he'll likely be back in Week 16. His return will relegate Conklin back to the No. 3 or No. 4 option in the passing game.

On the Hot Seat

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills

70.3% rostered

With Emmanuel Sanders sitting out this past week, there was some hope it would help break Beasley out of a slump, but that didn't happen even though he led the team in targets. The past two weeks he's racked up 19 targets, which is the reason he's on the hot seat and not the cut list. It's hard to cut someone who can get 19 targets from Josh Allen in two weeks, but it's hard to ignore the lack of production. Despite the high volume, he managed an average of just 8.2 half-PPR points.

Since the bye week, Beasley is just the WR35 with a 7.1 point per game average. In Week 9, he had 16.0 points and then rattled off five straight games with under eight points before finally cracking double-digits in Week 14. It's been a tough season for Beasley after an excellent 2020 campaign, but Dawson Knox has taken a big step forward and has stolen some of the underneath work that mostly went to him last season.

Hold On

A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals

44.5% rostered

Green – like the entire Cardinal offense – struggled on Sunday. The former Bengal was able to put together a somewhat modest performance, finishing with 8.4 points. The more important number is the eight targets he commanded. He also received 10 targets in Week 14. He's been in double-digits in five of his 13 games played this season. It's not great, but in a pinch fantasy managers could do far worse than putting him into their starting lineup.

The other thing to consider is DeAndre Hopkins was the leading touchdown receiver for the Cardinals with eight and with him on IR, it's very possible Green becomes Kyler Murray's favorite target in the red zone. He's a much bigger target than Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. The Cardinals have two decent matchups to end the season. While he may not be someone you want to put into your starting lineups if you have a choice, the reality is with injuries and Covid-19, you may not actually have a choice and in that case, you could do a lot worse than a receiver getting seven or so targets from Kyler Murray.

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