Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 25


Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 25! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise holds particular importance for fantasy value. Understanding strikeout trends and the stats behind them can help you sort through all the noise and determine which pitchers are legit and which pitchers should be avoided.

The players in this article were chosen using RotoBaller’s K% Risers and Fallers premium Tool. This tool identifies players who are surging and falling in strikeout percentage over the last 30 days. The goal of this tool is to help you find pitchers who are showing improving or declining K%.

The fantasy playoffs are well underway with only a few weeks left! As you all know, picking and choosing your pitching matchups carefully is essential at this time. I will discuss two interesting strikeout rate risers and two fallers to hopefully help you with your tough decisions this week. Some of these names are repeats from recent weeks because they still raise questions around whether they should be started.

Editor's Note: Get our 2020 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our draft kit, premium rankings, player projections and outlooks, our top sleepers, dynasty and prospect rankings, 20 preseason and in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research and tools. Sign Up Now!

Strikeout Rate Risers

All stats current as of Sunday, September 15

 

Yu Darvish - Chicago Cubs

Season K%: 30.3%, Last 30 Days: 38.3%

Our first K rate riser had a slow start to the season but has been providing more of what fantasy owners have expected lately. The one constant for Yu Darvish this season, however, has been his K rate; his season mark is at 30.3% and that number has been an insane 38.3% over the last 30 days. Darvish's season ERA is now just below 4.00 (3.97), so do owners have anything to worry about for the final few weeks? 

The bottom line is that Darvish has pitched extremely well lately. His 2.01 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 2.52 SIERA over his last five starts indicate that everything is clicking. Consequently, he has racked up at least seven strikeouts in each of those starts, including 14 in his last start at the Padres.   

Darvish has always been a strikeout pitcher, but his batted-ball profile and command were questionable at times earlier in the season. Those issues seem to have figured themselves out and Darvish looks like a higher-end fantasy asset once again. He has a two-start week, taking on the Reds in a decent matchup and the Cardinals in a tougher one. Regardless, I would not hesitate to use Darvish this week.

Eric Lauer - San Diego Padres

Season K%: 20.0%, Last 30 Days: 25.9%

Our second K rate riser has been a subpar starter this season but has offered higher strikeout upside lately. Eric Lauer hasn't offered a ton of strikeout upside this season but has a respectable 25.9% K rate over the last 30 days. He is currently available in 81% of leagues, so could Lauer be a useful streamer for the fantasy playoffs?

Unfortunately, Lauer hasn't done enough to make him a trustworthy add. His strikeout numbers over his last five starts were bolstered by an eight-strikeout and a nine-strikeout performance; he only had 11 strikeouts in his other three starts. Aside from that, Lauer posted a 4.81 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and a 4.59 SIERA over those starts, which don't inspire confidence.

Lauer hasn't pitched well for most of the season and his matchup against the Diamondbacks isn't great. He should not be trusted in the fantasy playoffs with just a couple weeks left.    

 

 

Strikeout Rate Fallers

All stats current as of Sunday, September 15

 

Zack Wheeler - New York Mets

Season K%: 22.9%, Last 30 Days: 14.7%

Well, here we are again. This is Zack Wheeler's fourth straight week on this list. He has pitched better lately overall, but the K rate is still quite low. What's the verdict on Wheeler for this week?

The good news is that Wheeler's woes seem to be behind him. The strikeout numbers of late may still be low, but Wheeler has now strung together four straight starts with just one run allowed. His most recent start was a seven-inning gem against a tough Dodgers matchup with nine strikeouts. We all know Wheeler's upside, so, given his recent performance, it seems like the worries have subsided. Wheeler is on a hot streak at the right time.

Wheeler will be at the Reds this week, a decent matchup. I feel confident in starting him this week, the first time in a while. He seems to be finding his rhythm and fantasy owners should play the hot hand (or arm in this case).

 

Mike Minor - Texas Rangers

Season K%: 23.6%, Last 30 Days: 16.8%

Our second K rate dud is a veteran who is putting forth an excellent season to this point. Mike Minor has performed extremely well in 2019 despite pitching his home games in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, posting a 13-9 record with a 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 23.6% K rate through 189 2/3 IP. However, he has struggled lately, posting a 4.99 ERA and a poor 16.8% K rate over the last 30 days. He has been a huge asset for owners this season, but should they leave him on their benches now?

Minor has not been able to find his command lately (1.34 WHIP) and it has affected his ERA and his batted-ball profile (5.15 SIERA). He has been inconsistent, allowing five combined earned runs in three starts and 17 in his other three. His strikeout numbers have of course suffered, but the more worrisome thing is his diminished performance overall.

Minor has a tough matchup at Oakland this week, a team that scored seven runs off him in his last start. While Minor has been great for most of the season, I would not be willing to rely on him in his next start with a fantasy title on the line.

 

K-Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top strikeout rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium K-Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This tool will soon be active once we have a large enough sample size in the season to be considered reliable.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Quarterback

2019 was a very interesting season of fantasy football, to say the least. It's safe to say no one was banking on the season that we saw from Lamar Jackson but he wasn't the only one to stand out. At the quarterback position, we saw some really exciting players start to shine and some older... Read More


Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now,... Read More


Where Does 2019 Rank Historically Among ADP Movers?

I have worked on a season-review series of articles in which I have analyzed the biggest winners and losers in terms of ADP entering draft season compared to the end of the year final results. It was plenty of fun looking back at the gambles most of us took which ultimately paid off, but also... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Tight End

2019 was not the record-breaking season for tight ends 2018 was. San Francisco’s George Kittle (most receiving yards for a TE in a season) and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz (most receptions for a TE in a season) did not break the records they set last season, although both were fine for fantasy players. Kansas City’s Travis... Read More


Rushing Quarterbacks Are Becoming Necessary

The 2019 fantasy season is over. We are all thinking about what to do come 2020 draft day. So let me ask you something. What if I offer you the chance of drafting a quarterback who is a lock to finish the season with 270 fantasy points? Would you take him and make him your... Read More


Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 fantasy football was filled with plenty of surprises across the board. Between guys like Devante Parker breaking out and David Johnson being a total dud, there was plenty of action that kept the fantasy season interesting. At the running back position, there were some very interesting young names that took off and broke... Read More