AFC Playoff Bets - Division Finishes for 2020

June 25, 2020

Tim Heaney provides betting advice on the best wagers for 2020 NFL, this time focusing on AFC Division winners and finishes. Teams like the Colts, Titans, and Broncos could pay off based on Vegas odds.

In my first column for RotoBaller's betting section, I offered suggestions for wagering on 2020 NFL win totals. With those in mind, I return with tips for the next logical progression: NFL division winners and teams that'll make the playoffs. 

If you're just starting on the betting track, the 2020 season is a good time to jump in with predicting which NFL teams will reach the postseason. The NFL has expanded the playoff format to include seven teams: the top seed, which will receive its conference's sole first-round bye, and six teams playing on the wild-card round. This means a whopping 43.75% of a conference's teams will make the playoffs. (The NFL's first round is now just the first two days of March Madness, and I'm here for it.)

That extra spot from which to chase the Lombardi Trophy makes this category more fun. You can now bump up an extra "borderline" team if you think they have some semblance of a shot to surpass the regular season. On top of that, many betting outlets allow you to wager on a team's exact finish in the final regular-season division standings. This often gives you a more favorable return on investment if you have an optimistic or pessimistic read on a team. And we're all over having more outs for us to hit for a win.

AFC Bets: Division Place, Exact Finishes, and Playoff Berths

When you're picking your favorites from some of the divisions that are expected to have tight races, you can make a bit bigger of a return by nailing the exact finishing order.

With all this in mind, here are my favorite division finish and playoff wagers for the AFC. The NFC edition will come out next week. (Also, I plan on doing a "Long Shots" article later in the preseason, so I won't include those here.)

(Notes: Odds taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, FoxBet, and BetMGM Sportsbooks. I'm defaulting to viewing New Jersey's odds and lines. See where sports betting is legal in the United States.)

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

AFC No. 2 Playoff Seed: +700 (FoxBet)
$10 bet pays $80

These two wagers show that I'm all over the Colts in 2020.

Sadly, to a degree, so are the books (nothing more favorable than FanDuel's +135 to win the division), which lowers our ceiling to cash in on their potential AFC South win.

If you want to go beyond the slightly risk-averse payouts for AFC South win, stretch for this one.

Philip Rivers' arrival gives Indy at least a short-term rock under center, and he should have plenty of time to dissect defense behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. He already led the NFL in passing yards under pressure last year:

The Colts also drafted NCAA stud Jonathan Taylor to lead an already sturdy backfield with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. The way Rivers can move the chains, the Colts could wind up as the most-improved team in time of possession.

Big-play wideout T.Y. Hilton's still there, too, to lead an uncertain but budding group of wideouts.

They also enjoyed a major upgrade on the defensive side: Trading for DeForest Buckner shores up an already rising defensive front, anchored by linebacker Darius Leonard. 

Plus, ESPN's NFL Nation slotted Indy third in their continuity rankings with 82.7% of player snaps returning from 2019. Considering how much of their core remains intact, even with some big additions, that's an all-too-important development as COVID-19 threatens the normalcy of preseason preparation. (I'm not worried about that much regarding Rivers, who is all too familiar with Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni's system from their days with the Chargers.)

Now, of course, nudging ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens is a tough proposition, but you can wistfully poke just enough holes in Baltimore (Lamar Jackson regression? Young linebackers hurting the defense? Still not a great wideout corps....) to think Indy could sneak in as the No. 2. In fact, the Colts play Baltimore in Week 9 and could accomplish that feat themselves.

BONUS: AFC SOUTH EXACT ORDER OF FINISH

+500 (FoxBet)
$10 bet pays $60

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2nd Place in AFC East: +210 (FanDuel)
$10 pays $31

Sure, Tom Brady showed signs of fading in 2019, but his departure still leaves a major hole and puts football's most recent dynasty into major transition mode.

Even if the offense turns run-heavy, Sony Michel (foot surgery) may undergo delays in getting ready for the season. The WR depth behind Julian Edelman is suspect (despite N'Keal Harry's intrigue), and they're wishing for some spark from rookie tight ends Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene.

The defense remains one of the league's best, but it'll likely be on the field more often in 2020 if Jarrett Stidham (or another quarterback, like Cam Newton?) can't carry the offense -- which negates how much it'll help.

Buffalo wasn't too far off the AFC East title in 2019, thanks to a talented defense. The Bills look like at least a co-favorite for the division crown this year. Their buzz is already loud at the books after they traded for difference-making wideout Stefon Diggs and drafted possible franchise back Zach Moss, giving QB Josh Allen support and possibly increasing Buffalo's time of possession.  

This is a roundabout way to cash in on Buffalo's expected surge; none of the four books here have their AFC East Win bet at a better ROI than +135.

(Bettors who can afford more gusto could try a 3rd Place bet for +400 on DraftKings or BetMGM if they think the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins can sneak into second. I don't. Yet.)

BONUS: AFC East, Exact Order of Finish
+900 (FoxBet)
$10 bet pays $100

1. Buffalo Bills
2. New York Jets
3. New England Patriots
4. Miami Dolphins

3. TENNESSEE TITANS

3rd Place in AFC South: +250 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
$10 pays $35

Tennessee surpassed their 9-7 record last year, coming up one win short of a Super Bowl appearance, and the Titans still have the personnel to remain in the competition for a seven-team playoff picture. A full season led by QB Ryan Tannehill, who broke out late last year, preserves optimism.

However, his efficiency was basically as perfect as it could've last year, especially in what his receivers did after completions:

17 of Ryan Tannehill's passes gained more than 20 yards after the catch last season. That 4.9% rate was the highest in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/LHwl5HsbjO

— QB Data Mine (@QBDataMine) May 6, 2020

Now, this could be a product of the offensive improvements under OC Arthur Smith, but Tannehill's '19 per-game production looks too brilliant to sustain for a second straight year, especially when relying on production after the catch.

Bruising franchise RB Derrick Henry, great trench play, and emerging wideout A.J. Brown give Tennessee a sturdy foundation in a division ripe for the taking, but fading a quarterback after a likely career year (or at least a career-best pace) is a good way to navigate around the books.

Would it shock you if Tennessee finished behind Indianapolis and Houston after a tight race? In a seven-team playoff format, that even gives them a really outside shot at making the playoffs. (Probably not, though.

4. DENVER BRONCOS

2nd Place in AFC West: +260 (FanDuel)
$10 pays $36

I'm predicting the Broncos to sneak into the postseason in that seventh spot. The Los Angeles Chargers lost Philip Rivers, and the Las Vegas Raiders still have at least another year before stepping into a valid postseason chase.

Adding reception-happy RB Melvin Gordon and rookie wideouts Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler to a receiving crew that already had Courtland Sutton and emerging tight end Noah Fant should help Drew Lock take a notable step forward under center in Year 2. Talented tandem back Phillip Lindsay is still in town, which takes the offense to another level.

Denver also welcomes back pass-rusher Bradley Chubb after he missed nearly all of 2019 after partially tearing his ACL in Week 4. His pairing with Von Miller should rejuvenate this pass rush.

BONUS: AFC WEST, EXACT ORDER OF FINISH
+600 (FoxBet)
$10 bet pays $70

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Denver Broncos
3. Las Vegas Raiders
4. Los Angeles Chargers

Stay tuned for the NFC edition next week.

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