Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NL Outfielders - Draft Avoids for 2021

MLB players have reported for Spring Training and plenty of big offseason moves have taken place; it's beginning to feel a lot like baseball season! Big-league players are not the only ones getting ready for the start of the season at this time, though. Fantasy players are now putting the work in to prepare for one of the most fun aspects of fantasy sports, draft day.

One of the biggest efforts of draft prep is to comb over each position to identify potential draft values as well as potential draft busts. The abbreviated 60-game regular season in 2020 presented some interesting player performance trends relative to other seasons, so sifting through the data will be even more important to prep for this season.

I will be taking a look at National League outfielders who look like they could bust for this exercise. Some of these players will be mentioned as potential busts due to anticipated performance versus ADP, and some will be mentioned because their underlying 2020 numbers simply do not seem sustainable. To be clear, these players could end up having great seasons or perform well within the expectations of their ADP (I have miscalled player performance plenty of times, and I am not the only one!). However, at this point in Spring Training, these NL outfielders stick out as ones to avoid at their current ADP.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:


Michael Conforto, New York Mets

ADP: 74

This first player is an example of being defined as a potential bust due to underperformance relative to ADP, rather than potential overall performance. Michael Conforto has quietly been a solid fantasy contributor over the past several seasons, but 2020 was a highlight season. Conforto put together a slash line of .322/.412/.515 with nine home runs, 31 RBI, and three stolen bases. As such, he is currently being drafted at pick 74 overall. While it is understandable that fantasy players may be high on him given his performance, there are a few reasons why I think he likely won't return pick-74 value.

First, I simply do not think Conforto will hit as well as he did in 2020. His career batting average is .259, which he massively exceeded in 2020. This could be due in part to a career-high .412 BABIP, whereas his career mark is .305. This BABIP also seems unsustainable given its large departure from average. Further, Conforto achieved such a high BABIP without hitting the ball hard and without having above-average speed. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2020 were both in the bottom half of baseball, and his sprint speed was just below league average.

This brings me to my second concern. Prior to 2020, Conforto had hit at least 27 HR for three consecutive seasons. However, he managed to do so without ever having an average exit velocity above 89.2 MPH (his 2020 value was 88.4 MPH) or a hard-hit rate above 43.4% (his 2020 value was 36.6%). His career launch angle is a decent 11.9 degrees, but he just does not profile as a power hitter. The Mets' improved lineup will provide plenty of runs scored and RBI opportunities, but I forsee some negative regression for Conforto's batting average and question his HR potential.

Consider a reasonable best-case projection for Conforto in which he bats .260 with 30 HR (again, this is based on his previous performance, not what I necessarily think will happen given his batted-ball profile) and 85 RBI. Per Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research, these numbers would be expected from pick 90-100 overall. Of course, Conforto could exceed these numbers; however, given what his numbers look like under the hood, I think reaching for him at pick 75 would make him a bust for fantasy players.


Daulton Varsho, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 159

We now move on to a player who I think could bust both in terms of ADP as well as general performance. Daulton Varsho is an intriguing prospect for the Diamondbacks; he is projected to have a nice power/speed combo and can play catcher in addition to the outfield. Varsho saw time both behind the plate and in the outfield in 2020, posting a less-than-impressive .188/.287/.366 slash line with three HR, nine RBI, three stolen bases, and a 28.7% strikeout rate in his first 115 plate appearances. Obviously, this was a small sample size, and Varsho's fantasy value as a catcher who can steal bases would boost his overall value considerably.

The problem here is that Varsho's role with the team is currently unknown and he did not perform well, yet is being drafted at pick 159, ahead of plenty of more-established outfielders. Let's take a closer look into why I think Varsho is currently too risky of a pick.

As I mentioned, Varsho simply did not perform well in his first big league experience. This is not all that surprising, given that Varsho completely skipped Triple-A from 2019 to 2020. He did show off all of his skills in 2019 at AA, but the lack of experience in developmental ball likely affected his play in the big leagues. Digging deeper, Varsho did not hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 86.2 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 38.2%. He also had a large uppercut swing, with an average launch angle of 18.4 degrees. Not only does this not pair well with hitting the ball softly, but it also negates Varsho's speed weapon; you can't out-run a pop-up or fly ball.

I do think that Varsho is a very intriguing fantasy player from a dynasty perspective. If he can eventually bring what he did in Double-A to the Diamondbacks, then he would definitely be a higher-end catcher option and a solid outfield option as well. However, given the uncertainty of his role with the Diamondbacks in 2021 and his poor 2020 performance, it seems clear that Varsho is not a safe bet. As such, I would steer clear of him at pick 159 for the 2021 season.


Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 257

My final potential bust is a teammate of Varsho's. Kole Calhoun continued to show his newfound power in 2020, posting a .226/.338/.526 slash line with an impressive 16 HR and 40 RBI. Calhoun is currently being drafted as a late-round pick at 257, but he is going ahead of several intriguing outfielders in both the NL and AL. His power potential is likely behind his current ADP, but here's why I wouldn't count on it to come to fruition again.

The odd thing about Calhoun is that his power has come later in his career; prior to 2019, Calhoun had not hit at least 20 HR since 2015, and he has only ever done that twice in his career. 2020 was even more of an outlier, as his HR/FB rate hit a career-high 28.6%, compared to a career 15.2% mark. His 2020 average launch angle did increase from 14.9 degrees to 17 degrees, but his overall batted-ball profile was merely average, with an average exit velocity in the 61st percentile of baseball and his hard-hit rate in the 43rd. Further, his barrels/batted-ball event actually dipped slightly, from 12.3% in 2019 to 12.1%. Combine that with the fact that Calhoun hasn't hit above .250 since 2016 and that he will hit in a little-changed offense that performed poorly overall in 2020, and there isn't a ton to be hopeful about.

All this being said, Calhoun could defy the warning signs and mash 30 HR in 2021, which would make him a great pick at 257. The bust potential here is relatively balanced given his current ADP, but with players like Raimel Tapia, Manuel Margot, Mitch Haniger, and David Peralta going 20 to 30 picks later, I think there's just as much of, if not more of a chance to snag a potential impact outfielder with a longer track record of success.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts


Blake Corum6 hours ago

Rams Seeking Three-Down Role From Blake Corum
Javonte Williams7 hours ago

Newcomers Threatening Javonte Williams' Role
Samaje Perine7 hours ago

Jaleel McLaughlin Facing Threat To Workload
Mike Conley8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday Evening
Tyrese Haliburton8 hours ago

Dealing With Left Hamstring Soreness
Tyrese Haliburton8 hours ago

Won't Return On Thursday Night
Zack Wheeler9 hours ago

Another Quality Start For Zack Wheeler Thursday
Kevin Gausman9 hours ago

Fans Season-High 10 In Third Win
Eloy Jiménez9 hours ago

Eloy Jimenez Likely Out At Least One Month
Michael Conforto9 hours ago

Unlikely To Return This Weekend
James Wood9 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Game With Soreness
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

Probable For Game 2
Luke Kornet10 hours ago

Questionable To Return
Cody Bradford10 hours ago

Rangers Move Cody Bradford To 60-Day Injured List
Kristaps Porzingis10 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Courtland Sutton12 hours ago

Not At OTAs
Travis Etienne Jr.12 hours ago

Jaguars Plan To Ease Travis Etienne Jr.'s Workload
Luis Robert Jr.12 hours ago

To Begin Rehab Assignment Tuesday
Eloy Jiménez13 hours ago

Eloy Jimenez Will Be Out For An Extended Period
Derrick Henry14 hours ago

Ravens Not Putting A Cap On Derrick Henry's Workload
Rome Odunze14 hours ago

Expected To Practice Next Week
Paul Skenes14 hours ago

Only Strikes Out Three In No-Decision
Alex Lange15 hours ago

Tigers Option Alex Lange To Triple-A
Marvin Harrison Jr.15 hours ago

Cardinals Sign Marvin Harrison Jr. To Rookie Deal
Luis Gil15 hours ago

Continues Brilliant Season With Dominant Outing
Jameson Williams16 hours ago

A "Man On A Mission"
Darren Waller16 hours ago

Absent At OTAs
Daniel Jones16 hours ago

Has No Doubt He'll Be Ready For Week 1
Dameon Pierce17 hours ago

Texans Still Have Plans For Dameon Pierce
Deshaun Watson17 hours ago

Throwing Every Other Day
Shane Baz17 hours ago

Reinstated And Optioned To Triple-A
Jake Fraley17 hours ago

Still Has Swelling In His Hand
Nick Lodolo18 hours ago

Aiming To Return Monday
Esteury Ruiz18 hours ago

A's Place Esteury Ruiz On 10-Day Injured List
Blake Snell18 hours ago

Goes On Paternity List
John Means18 hours ago

Orioles Place John Means On 15-Day Injured List
Austin Riley18 hours ago

Still Sidelined Against Cubs
Jon Gray19 hours ago

Heads To The Injured List
Corey Seager19 hours ago

Heads To The Bench In Philly
Julio Rodríguez19 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Dropped To Sixth In Batting Order
Naz Reid20 hours ago

Records Full Line In Game 1 Defeat
Karl-Anthony Towns20 hours ago

Limited To 16 Points In West Final Opener
Anthony Edwards21 hours ago

Has Mixed Night In Game 1 Against Dallas
Jaden McDaniels21 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves With 24 Points In Game 1 Against Dallas
P.J. Washington21 hours ago

Plays Effective Game Against Minnesota Wednesday
Kyrie Irving21 hours ago

Has Big First Half In Game 1 Against Minnesota
Luka Doncic21 hours ago

Tops All Scorers In Game 1 With 33 Points
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Cowboys Flirting With Backfield Committee
Geno Smith1 day ago

Has "Really Good Grasp" On New Offense
Anthony Richardson1 day ago

Throwing At OTAs
Lamar Jackson1 day ago

Drops Weight To "Be More Agile"
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Could Get Time At Center
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Out Again For Game 2
Xavier Tillman1 day ago

Sr. Questionable For Game 2
Bojan Bogdanovic2 days ago

Has Surgery
Jalen Brunson2 days ago

Undergoes Successful Surgery
Michael Pittman Jr.2 days ago

"Should Be Fine" After Leaving Practice Early
Xavier Worthy2 days ago

Tweaks Hamstring At OTAs
Keaton Mitchell2 days ago

Likely To Miss Early-Season Games
Christian Kirk2 days ago

Feeling Healthy
T.J. McConnell2 days ago

Continues To Make A Mark Off The Bench
Pascal Siakam2 days ago

Collects Third Postseason Double-Double
Myles Turner2 days ago

Stands Out In Game 1 Against Boston With Hot Start
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Misses First Cut In 2024
Nicolai Hojgaard2 days ago

Debuts At Charles Schwab Challenge
Harry Hall2 days ago

Returns To Charles Schwab Challenge
Grayson Murray2 days ago

Looks To Continue Playing Well At Colonial
Garrick Higgo2 days ago

Struggling For Form Heading To Colonial
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

A Favorite To Win At Colonial
Rafael Campos3 days ago

A Risky Play At Charles Schwab Challenge
Lucas Glover3 days ago

A Healthy Option At Charles Schwab Challenge
Hayden Springer3 days ago

Can Hayden Springer Turn Things Around At Colonial?
Tyson Alexander3 days ago

Needs More Than A Putter At Colonial
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Is Risky But Has A Lot To Like At Charles Schwab Challenge
Mark Hubbard3 days ago

Trending Up Ahead Of Charles Schwab Challenge
Alejandro Tosti3 days ago

Headed For Trouble At Colonial
Chan Kim3 days ago

A Potential Value At Charles Schwab Challenge
PGA3 days ago

S.H. Kim A Sneaky Option At Colonial
Justin Suh3 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Charles Schwab Challenge
PGA3 days ago

Matthi Schmid Looks To Regain Form At Colonial
Filip Chytil3 days ago

Appears Ready To Rock For Eastern Conference Finals
Jani Hakanpaa3 days ago

Still Not Practicing
Roope Hintz4 days ago

Skates Monday, Still Day-To-Day
Sam Lafferty4 days ago

And Ilya Mikheyev Drawing Into Game 7 Lineup
Thatcher Demko4 days ago

Unavailable For Game 7, Arturs Silovs Will Start
Brock Boeser4 days ago

Out Indefinitely With Blood Clots
Joey Logano4 days ago

Dominates All-Star Race
Ryan Fox4 days ago

Continues Up-And-Down 2024
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Falls Short Of Victory At The All-Star Race
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Rallies For Fifth-Place Finish At North Wilkesboro
Patton Kizzire4 days ago

Showing Improvement The Past Month
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Punches Kyle Busch After Lap 2 Crash at All-Star Race
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Wrecked Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at All-Star Race, Then Said He "Sucks"
Christiaan Bezuidenhout4 days ago

Likely To Bounce Back This Week
Keegan Bradley4 days ago

Attempts To Continue Momentum From Valhalla
Edson Barboza4 days ago

Lerone Murphy Dominates To Defeat Edson Barboza
Carlston Harris4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 92
Khaos Williams4 days ago

Scores Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 92
Luana Pinheiro4 days ago

Loses Second Fight In A Row
Angela Hill4 days ago

Scores First Submission Win
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Exceeds Value In DFS At North Wilkesboro
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes Eighth In All-Star Race
Vinicius Salvador4 days ago

Winless In The UFC
Adrian Yanez4 days ago

Returns To Win Column In A Big Way
Ramiz Brahimaj4 days ago

Doesn't Do Much In UFC Vegas 92 Loss
Themba Gorimbo4 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision At UFC Vegas 92
Edson Barboza4 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 92
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Fades Back To 17th At North Wilkesboro
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Winds Up Third At All-Star Race
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

What To Do With Tyler Reddick At North Wilkesboro?
Joey Logano5 days ago

Will Start On The Pole In The 2024 NASCAR All-Star Race
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At North Wilkesboro?
William Byron5 days ago

Aims For The Top 10 At North Wilkesboro
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win The All-Star Race
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Will Start From The Rear At North Wilkesboro
Martin Truex Jr5 days ago

. Is One To Watch At North Wilkesboro
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Why Chase Elliott Is A Core Play In DFS This Weekend At North Wilkesboro
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Will Kyle Busch’s Recent Struggles On Short Tracks Continue This Weekend At North Wilkesboro?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5 days ago

. Likely Not A Factor In All-Star Race
Michael McDowell5 days ago

Could Slide Back At North Wilkesboro
AJ Allmendinger5 days ago

May Struggle In All-Star Race





Top 24 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers for 2024 Fantasy Football

The football season never stops at RotoBaller! With early best ball drafts already taking place, we're digging into our positional rankings for 2024. NFL Network contributor and RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones dives into the rankings and tiers for the top 24 fantasy football wide receivers for the upcoming 2024 season. Use this early insight to... Read More


UFL DFS Value Plays: Week 9 Bargain Bin for DraftKings Including Jordan Ta'amu, Matt Colburn, Ty Scott, More

Welcome to the Week 9 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 9 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings'... Read More

Going Too Early? Five Overrated Players in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

Here at RotoBaller, the fantasy football season is year-round! With early 2024 best ball drafts already underway, we're digging into the ADP of fantasy football's biggest names. NFL Network contributor and RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones highlights the early ADP of some popular fantasy options. While these players are great, are they worth their out-of-control ADP... Read More

Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Winners From the 2024 NFL Offseason

The first two articles in this series focused on the offseason's quarterback and running-back winners. This series has focused more on quick-hitting analysis than in-depth statistical breakdowns; that trend will continue here with the receiver group. With the increasing popularity of three-receiver sets and higher passing volume in the NFL, the receiver position has a... Read More

Fantasy Football Dynasty Price Check - Christian Watson (2024)

Christian Watson had a very slow start to his NFL career early on in the 2022 season, struggling with injuries and drawing the ire of Aaron Rodgers in his NFL debut. However, Watson went off from Week 10 onward, averaging 65.4 yards per game and finishing as the overall WR4 (standard format) during that span.... Read More

Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Early Half-PPR Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Football: Marvin Harrison Jr., Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs, Zack Moss, Drake London, Jayden Reed

Hey, RotoBallers, we are back with more fantasy football rankings! The 202 NFL Draft is over, and free agency is winding down; most players are now reporting to offseason workouts. The heart of fantasy football draft season is a few months away, but it's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy drafts. Today,... Read More

Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Zack Moss, Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Outlook for Cincinnati Bengals RBs in 2024

The Cincinnati Bengals went through some changes at the running back position this offseason. They traded away longtime running back Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans for a 2024 seventh-round pick. Mixon spent the first seven seasons of his career in Cincinnati, where he rushed for 6,412 yards.  To replace him, the Bengals will turn to a pair... Read More

Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings For Superflex Leagues: 30-21

Now that we’re coming off our rookie fever, it’s time to see where the newest NFL players stack up against the veterans. That’s right, we’re talking rookies and dynasty rankings. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is my sixth year writing NFL content with RotoBaller. I also contribute to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings and... Read More

Jermaine Burton - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Jermaine Burton

With the 80th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals selected Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton. The surplus of receivers drafted early created a demand for the position, and the Bengals got their guy in Round 3. Burton was the 13th wide receiver taken off the board -- drafted ahead of guys... Read More

Who Is Our Favorite RB Sleeper? 2024 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings Analysis

We working fantasy football angles around the clock at RotoBaller! As early best ball drafts are already getting underway, we're putting together our first-look rankings for 2024 fantasy football. RotoBaller's David Rispoli dives into our new Running Back rankings for 2024. Our RB1 isn't a huge surprise, but there are some sleepers as we work... Read More

Rhamondre Stevenson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Running Back Winners From the 2024 NFL Offseason

The NFL Draft and free agency are officially complete. With these big transactional periods in the rearview window, fantasy managers can now officially look back and see who has been the biggest winner of the offseason. For this series, I’ll review each fantasy-relevant positional group and identify the biggest winners and why they’re winners. The... Read More

Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookie, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Jamari Thrash

Draft capital matters for fantasy football players, but more so early in drafts with a 0.576 correlation for top-10 picks and fantasy points per game for wide receivers over the past five seasons. For context, the correlation plummets to 0.004 for picks 11-32, with a slightly better correlation (0.131) to PPR/G for Rounds 5-7 at... Read More

Kyler Murray - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Candidates You Must Have in 2024 - Fantasy Football Sleepers

The term "sleeper" gets thrown around a lot these days in fantasy circles. Aside from being a popular fantasy gaming app, a sleeper in fantasy football is a player currently undervalued at their draft price -- particularly with the expectation they will vastly outplay their ADP. While these targets are typically a late-round choice, sleepers... Read More