X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NL Outfielders - Draft Avoids for 2021

Connelly Doan identifies three National League outfielders who could be busts in 2021 fantasy baseball. These OF are currently overvalued at their current ADP.

MLB players have reported for Spring Training and plenty of big offseason moves have taken place; it's beginning to feel a lot like baseball season! Big-league players are not the only ones getting ready for the start of the season at this time, though. Fantasy players are now putting the work in to prepare for one of the most fun aspects of fantasy sports, draft day.

One of the biggest efforts of draft prep is to comb over each position to identify potential draft values as well as potential draft busts. The abbreviated 60-game regular season in 2020 presented some interesting player performance trends relative to other seasons, so sifting through the data will be even more important to prep for this season.

I will be taking a look at National League outfielders who look like they could bust for this exercise. Some of these players will be mentioned as potential busts due to anticipated performance versus ADP, and some will be mentioned because their underlying 2020 numbers simply do not seem sustainable. To be clear, these players could end up having great seasons or perform well within the expectations of their ADP (I have miscalled player performance plenty of times, and I am not the only one!). However, at this point in Spring Training, these NL outfielders stick out as ones to avoid at their current ADP.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Michael Conforto, New York Mets

ADP: 74

This first player is an example of being defined as a potential bust due to underperformance relative to ADP, rather than potential overall performance. Michael Conforto has quietly been a solid fantasy contributor over the past several seasons, but 2020 was a highlight season. Conforto put together a slash line of .322/.412/.515 with nine home runs, 31 RBI, and three stolen bases. As such, he is currently being drafted at pick 74 overall. While it is understandable that fantasy players may be high on him given his performance, there are a few reasons why I think he likely won't return pick-74 value.

First, I simply do not think Conforto will hit as well as he did in 2020. His career batting average is .259, which he massively exceeded in 2020. This could be due in part to a career-high .412 BABIP, whereas his career mark is .305. This BABIP also seems unsustainable given its large departure from average. Further, Conforto achieved such a high BABIP without hitting the ball hard and without having above-average speed. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2020 were both in the bottom half of baseball, and his sprint speed was just below league average.

This brings me to my second concern. Prior to 2020, Conforto had hit at least 27 HR for three consecutive seasons. However, he managed to do so without ever having an average exit velocity above 89.2 MPH (his 2020 value was 88.4 MPH) or a hard-hit rate above 43.4% (his 2020 value was 36.6%). His career launch angle is a decent 11.9 degrees, but he just does not profile as a power hitter. The Mets' improved lineup will provide plenty of runs scored and RBI opportunities, but I forsee some negative regression for Conforto's batting average and question his HR potential.

Consider a reasonable best-case projection for Conforto in which he bats .260 with 30 HR (again, this is based on his previous performance, not what I necessarily think will happen given his batted-ball profile) and 85 RBI. Per Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research, these numbers would be expected from pick 90-100 overall. Of course, Conforto could exceed these numbers; however, given what his numbers look like under the hood, I think reaching for him at pick 75 would make him a bust for fantasy players.

 

Daulton Varsho, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 159

We now move on to a player who I think could bust both in terms of ADP as well as general performance. Daulton Varsho is an intriguing prospect for the Diamondbacks; he is projected to have a nice power/speed combo and can play catcher in addition to the outfield. Varsho saw time both behind the plate and in the outfield in 2020, posting a less-than-impressive .188/.287/.366 slash line with three HR, nine RBI, three stolen bases, and a 28.7% strikeout rate in his first 115 plate appearances. Obviously, this was a small sample size, and Varsho's fantasy value as a catcher who can steal bases would boost his overall value considerably.

The problem here is that Varsho's role with the team is currently unknown and he did not perform well, yet is being drafted at pick 159, ahead of plenty of more-established outfielders. Let's take a closer look into why I think Varsho is currently too risky of a pick.

As I mentioned, Varsho simply did not perform well in his first big league experience. This is not all that surprising, given that Varsho completely skipped Triple-A from 2019 to 2020. He did show off all of his skills in 2019 at AA, but the lack of experience in developmental ball likely affected his play in the big leagues. Digging deeper, Varsho did not hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 86.2 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 38.2%. He also had a large uppercut swing, with an average launch angle of 18.4 degrees. Not only does this not pair well with hitting the ball softly, but it also negates Varsho's speed weapon; you can't out-run a pop-up or fly ball.

I do think that Varsho is a very intriguing fantasy player from a dynasty perspective. If he can eventually bring what he did in Double-A to the Diamondbacks, then he would definitely be a higher-end catcher option and a solid outfield option as well. However, given the uncertainty of his role with the Diamondbacks in 2021 and his poor 2020 performance, it seems clear that Varsho is not a safe bet. As such, I would steer clear of him at pick 159 for the 2021 season.

 

Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 257

My final potential bust is a teammate of Varsho's. Kole Calhoun continued to show his newfound power in 2020, posting a .226/.338/.526 slash line with an impressive 16 HR and 40 RBI. Calhoun is currently being drafted as a late-round pick at 257, but he is going ahead of several intriguing outfielders in both the NL and AL. His power potential is likely behind his current ADP, but here's why I wouldn't count on it to come to fruition again.

The odd thing about Calhoun is that his power has come later in his career; prior to 2019, Calhoun had not hit at least 20 HR since 2015, and he has only ever done that twice in his career. 2020 was even more of an outlier, as his HR/FB rate hit a career-high 28.6%, compared to a career 15.2% mark. His 2020 average launch angle did increase from 14.9 degrees to 17 degrees, but his overall batted-ball profile was merely average, with an average exit velocity in the 61st percentile of baseball and his hard-hit rate in the 43rd. Further, his barrels/batted-ball event actually dipped slightly, from 12.3% in 2019 to 12.1%. Combine that with the fact that Calhoun hasn't hit above .250 since 2016 and that he will hit in a little-changed offense that performed poorly overall in 2020, and there isn't a ton to be hopeful about.

All this being said, Calhoun could defy the warning signs and mash 30 HR in 2021, which would make him a great pick at 257. The bust potential here is relatively balanced given his current ADP, but with players like Raimel Tapia, Manuel Margot, Mitch Haniger, and David Peralta going 20 to 30 picks later, I think there's just as much of, if not more of a chance to snag a potential impact outfielder with a longer track record of success.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF