RADIO
The Wild Card Round Saturday slate has a couple of GPP DFS stacks worth considering. I actually like the Saturday slate better than the Sunday slate, but does it really matter? If you're anything like me, you're going to be heavily invested in both. But as usual, I am going to look to roster some options that are far less owned.
So as we have so often done this year, let's start by eliminating the stacks that will likely be heavily owned. And that starts with the Buccaneers. Tom Brady and his myriad of receiving options against the "lucky to be in the playoffs" Washington Football Team will likely have the highest ownership percentage. Likewise, the way Josh Allen and the Bills have been playing, I expect Allen and Buffalo pass-catchers to be heavily represented as well.
I also think if Jared Goff is healthy, the Rams will be a popular stack as well. Unfortunately, we don't know for sure as I write this. So that leaves us with three potential stacks.
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The Contrarian Stack
Washington Football Team
Yes, Brady and the Bucs are coming in hot. But I don't think people realize how good Washington is. They are the third-best defensive DVOA. Does that mean Washington is going to shut out the Buccaneers? No. But I am suspecting this to be a much closer game than the lemmings and chucklehead talking heads do. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have been pretty stout against the run, having given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs. The best way to attack the Tampa Bay defense is through the air.
So we start with Alex Smith. With all the ugliness in Washinton, especially within Daniel Snyder's organization, the Alex Smith comeback story was very nice to hear the first five to ten times. But apologies as I have now heard that story at least one too many times. I believe people have focused on that story because the Washington passing game has been, I'm sorry, passable at best. I'm not going to even detail them here.
All Washington passing stats, however, have to be taken with a grain of salt as Smith only played in half of Washington's games this year. And if we look at the eight games he played, four of them were the tougher defenses he played. The 49ers, Giants, Steelers, and Rams are four of the top ten passing defenses in the league and the latter two have given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Yet when Smith faced the Steelers, he ripped them apart for 296 passing yards.
Tampa Bay meanwhile gave up the eleventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. The only team Smith faced that allowed more fantasy points than the Bucs is the Lions and he threw a season-high 390 yards against them. Smith will likely be closer to 300 passing yards than 400. However, given his low price on both sites, as the first part of our stack, he should bring you a tidy profit.
I will be stacking Smith with Terry McLaurin who has been a little gimpy the last few weeks, but people just don't realize how good McLaurin is. I still love this play:
OH LAWD, what you doin' Terry?!
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/F2SHgS8363
— #SuperWildCard on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 8, 2020
Despite missing Week 16 and having one of the worst QB-situations north of Jacksonville, McLaurin still finished with over 1100 receiving yards. He finished as a Top-20 WR this year. As you can see in the clip above, McLaurin is a YAC monster. In fact, he was fifth amongst all WRs. His 486 YAC was behind notables like DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams but ahead of others like Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown. That's pretty good company and every one of those WRs have a quality starter throwing them ball. Smith and McLaurin have still only played a handful of games together. Don't be surprised if they connect on multiple big plays this weekend.
If you are looking for a punt-play, Cam Sims is an interesting option as he has at least five targets each of the last three weeks. However, he has only one receiving TD on the year. I prefer a little more touchdown upside, which is why I will be completing my stack with Logan Thomas. Thomas scored again last week, bring his total to six on the year. That's not bad for a Tight End. What's even better is that Thomas is averaging over 11 DKFPs/game this year, including double-digit fantasy points each of the last six weeks. Throw in the fact that Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to TEs and I am absolutely loving this stack.
But I think I do have room on my plate for one more GPP Stack.
The "I'll Take the Roasted Lamb" Stack
Seattle Seahawks
I am tempted to go with a Colts stack as I foresee a negative game script for the Colts which forces Philip Rivers to pass the ball a lot. However, take a look at these two QBs and their stat lines and tell me which one you would rather have:
| W | L | Cmp | Att | Inc | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | QB Rating | |
| QB 1 | 7 | 1 | 186 | 267 | 81 | 69.66 | 1972 | 25 | 4 | 115.9 |
| QB 2 | 5 | 3 | 198 | 291 | 93 | 68.04 | 2240 | 15 | 9 | 95.2 |
QB2 is pretty good. He even has about 300 yards more than QB1. But you want QB1, right? That 6:1 ratio of TDs to INT alone makes him a far superior choice, right?
As you probably guessed already, QB1 is Russel Wilson. But so is QB2. QB2 is Wilson's 2020 season road stats. QB1 is Wilson's 2020 season home stats. I will remind you that the Seahawks are hosting the Rams this week. The Rams are a great defense, no argument. But Russ obviously is capable of some "home-cooking" and that includes two touchdowns the last time the Rams came to Seattle. Wilson is priced at a few hundred less than Brady on both sites. I like Wilson to not only surpass Brady on a point-per-dollar basis but overall production as well.
It doesn't hurt to have two of fantasy football's top-ten WRs this season at his disposal either. I like Lockett better on both sites than Metcalf as he's $100 cheaper on FanDuel and well worth the extra $200 on DraftKings given the full PPR scoring. But I remind you that both had double-digit touchdowns and over 1,000 yards receiving this season. Yes, we know Pete Carroll is going to want to run the ball, but a high-scoring game favors the Seahawks. Should this game turn into a shoot-out, who would you rather have, Wilson and this pair or the Rams options? Case closed.
Realize that Seattle has been much stouter since the acquisition of Carlos Dunlap at the trade deadline. He has been out the last couple of weeks with a foot injury, but I expect him to suit up for this game. However, there are still some lingering questions in the Seattle secondary and therefore I like Robert Woods as a potential runback.
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