December 26, 2017

Milos Zvekic gives his take on how fantasy NBA owners should lead their mid-tier team to the playoffs and try and pull off an upset there

The holiday season is upon us, and first off all, to all of you reading this I hope you had a Merry Christmas and a great Happy New Year! Now let's get down to business. My goal here is to help all of you do your best and go the furthest in your NBA Fantasy Leagues. This week we are exploring what to do if your team is sitting in the middle of the pack, on the verge of making the playoffs with no real "spark" and low odds to make it all the way.

Being a low-seed in fantasy playoffs isn't as much of a handicap as it is in real life, and that #1 can lose to the 8th seed without it being an outrageous upset. So if you're sitting a long way from the top, don't despair. Your first goal is to make the playoffs, and along with it to prepare yourselves for some upsets in elimination rounds.

This is part-two a three-part piece. Last week we talked about what you should do if your team is down on it's luck and sitting at the bottom of the food chain at the moment, and next week we will advise those who have done everything right and NBA Fantasy Gods are rewarding them with top spots in their leagues. Please do keep in mind that we are talking about Redraft leagues here. More on Dynasty leagues will follow when we step into the New Year.

Why am I not winning every matchup!?

The first thing you have to do is take a long hard look at your team. Were your performances affected by an injury? Are your guys playing below expectations? Are there any compatibility issues with the players that you have on your roster?

Different answers to these questions lead down different paths for the rest of the season.

Your chances of getting into the playoffs should also be taken into consideration while planing your route to the Finals. If you're in a more competitive league, and a lot of teams have their sights on the top 8 spots, more of your attention should be turned to making the playoffs in the first place. If you're in a 10 team league and eight teams make the playoffs then you might have the luxury of losing some matchups in the regular season to prepare your team for an upset during the playoffs.

We will try to cover as many scenarios as possible.

Rum, pum, pum, pum! Man Down!

One of your early picks is out for a month or two? Lets see what your options are...

My league has an IR spot - What are you doing man!? Put that poor sap in the IR spot and pick up a star in the making. Make those other owners cry for not seeing the potential that was floating around on the Waiver Wire.

My league has NO IR spot but I'm looking quite good in the playoff picture - If you're sitting in a playoff spot riddle me this... Is your guy out for long (over a month)? Will you fall out of the playoff conversation without him? Can you get a decent return for him? If you answer to all of the questions is NO, you should keep him!

My league has NO IR spot and I'm sweating my pants off to make the playoffs - Think about a trade. Try to find the right guy who will pay your asking price, or at least give you a fair deal. It's usually that guy at or near the top, who believes he will make the cut even with an injured guy on his roster. Nikola Vucevic is more valuable than Jayson Tatum or Will Barton when all are healthy. But if you're in a tough spot and need those wins NOW you might not want to wait around two months for Vooch to return. It could be too late then. Of course, don't get taken advantage of, and take into account how desperate you really are. The worse spot you're in, the lesser player should be your bottom line.

What are you doing? You know you're better than this!

So you've got a C.J. McCollum or a Jusuf Nurkic on your team? Expected more from them did you? I know, been through that several times myself. So, what to do with them?

Well first of all take a look at what their production means for your team. If the player that is not living up to his name is still a valuable contributor to your team's needs your better off just keeping him and waiting for the tables to turn. Also, if you believe that he will turn it around and kick ass later on when it counts, and you're in a position to wait for it to happen, by no means should you sell him while his value is down.

However, if you lost your faith and patience there's nothing wrong in exploring your options.

If your player is one of the higher caliber, like CJ or Nurk you should try shopping them around and see what you can get in return. You could be offered a guy who's on fire like Donovan Mitchell. Even though he is a rookie and a relative unknown, not to mention that he was the 11th round pick compared to your fourth round pick Jusuf, if you need production now and Mitchell's strenghts fit in well with your team, pulling the trigger instead of sliding down the standings while waiting for The Nurk Alert to step up can be the right thing to do.

If your struggling guy is a border-line fantasy asset like Marquese Chriss or Skal Labissiere, you're in the midst of a playoff hunt and your league is not 20+ teams, 15-player-rosters deep, I wouldn't judge you if you just plain cut either of them. You can use that empty spot to search for up-and-coming value from the wire, fill it with injury beneficiaries (like Bismack Biyombo now that Vooch has fractured his hand) or just use it to stream players with categories you need help with who play on the days you have open roster spots for each individual matchup.

My Guys are Killing it, but I'm not at the Top

If all or most of the guys you picked up are playing better than expected and you're still stuck in the middle you might have some players whose strengths don't gel together well.

It might be just that your star player isn't in sync with the supporting cast you've surrounded him with. For example, if you have Russell Westbrook as your first round pick, and you complemented him with Clint Capela and DeAndre Jordan later on in the draft, chances are you're not winning as many matchups as you should.

Russ is strong in steals and assists (and was a beast in the PTS and FT% department where he is struggling this season but we should expect him to turn it around). The twin towers that are on the same roster have their biggest weakness in the AST and free throw categories, and don't contribute much in the points column either. On the other hand they provide great FG%, high blocks and low turnovers. Westbrook will make sure that your FG% and TO are nearly unsalvageable. One thing is certain though, you're winning the rebound category every week.

A quick fix can be applied here. You should trade Westbrook or Capela and DJ for players that fit the rest of your team better. Suddenly, all your player's strengths will result in category wins and you will see your team fight it's way up the ladder.

Now this was just an example. You can read more about what players fit well together and what their strengths and weaknesses are in a great article about punting different stats in Head-to-Head leagues from our Chief NBA editor here at RotoBaller - Trevor Crippen.

What Must I Keep in Mind if I Want to Attack the Throne?

A team's schedule during your fantasy playoffs could be a decisive factor when it comes down to the elimination rounds. So as soon as you secure your place in the playoffs, maybe even before then, I would suggest you check out how many games does a guy you're interested in play during your league's fantasy playoffs before trading or dropping/adding players.

When you're stuck between two players, and you just can't decide which one to put your trust into, this could be the tie-breaker. And that guy might just end up braking your opponent's heart come D-day in late March.

I will address the question of which teams have favorable and which have poor fantasy playoff schedule in the next week's article for the teams on top. Until then, just make sure you get yourself in a good position that will allow you to be flexible while preparing your "mediocre" team for a big upset.

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