RADIO
We previously looked at the closer and bullpen situations in the AL East, AL Central, AL West. Today we chck out the NL East. Make sure to also bookmark our MLB Closer Depth Charts, which are updated every day for your viewing pleasure.
Atlanta Braves
Head Honcho: Craig Kimbrel, Next in line: Jason Grilli
Craig Kimbrel still finds himself among the elite at the RP position, even with the downgrades on offense for Atlanta. He produced a stellar 1.61 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 95 Ks to go along with 47 Saves. None of his advanced statistics show a sign of regression and he’s still a ripe 26 years old. Further he has begun developing a changeup to add to his repertoire. If the Braves have a lead after eight, good luck. Although the Braves offense is likely to deflate his save total, draft Kimbrel with confidence.
Jason Grilli is the likely candidate to step into the closer role should Kimbrel suffer an injury. Grilli put together impressive numbers while in Pittsburgh, culminating in his strong 2013 season with 33 Saves and a 13.32 K/9 ratio. Don’t be shocked if Grilli rebounds thanks to being around pitching coach Roger McDowell, who traditionally does magic with the Atlanta bullpen. The 2014 campaign was the first time in 5 years the Braves didn’t finish in the top three in bullpen ERA.
Notice I did not include Jim Johnson in my analysis? Well I am sorry, I cannot endorse a pitcher who just finished 2014 with a 7.09 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, and a 5.91 BB/9 rate. My guess should Kimbrel and Grilli go down? Arodys Viscaino.
Miami Marlins
Head Honcho: Steve Cishek, Next in line: Mike Dunn, A.J. Ramos
Cishek has been a sneaky play the past few seasons and was still strong in 2014, posting 39 Saves, good for 5th in the NL. There are some worrying signs; his ERA rose to 3.17, his GB rate dropped to 42.7%, his LD rate rose to 26.2%, and he had a career high BABIP .331. Expect for the BABIP to drop which should reduce his ERA. Considering the lack of competition in the Marlins bullpen, I’m willing to give Cishek a pass and recommend him as a solid option after the bigger name closers are gone.
Should Cishek miss time or be traded, Mike Dunn and A.J. Ramos are the likely candidates to assume closer duties. Dunn doesn’t have prototypical closer stuff, but he’s been successful in his career getting lefties and righties out, which is prerequisite #1 to survive in the ninth inning. The Marlins seem to prefer A.J. Ramos in the setup role but he was a successful minor league closer. Ramos has the higher fantasy upside, but either pitcher would be a solid replacement for save-needy fantasy owners.
New York Mets
Head Honcho: Jenrry Mejia, Next in line: Bobby Parnell
The closer situation is murky in Queens, with Parnell returning from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all but Opening Day in 2014. He’s expected back in late April but has yet to debut in Spring Training. He expects to reclaim the role when he returns but manager Terry Collins didn’t do Parnell any favors stating Mejia may remain in the ninth inning should he perform well out of the gun.
Parnell provides the higher upside of the two based on his solid 2013 campaign (22/26 Saves, 2.16 ERA), but it’s difficult to trust a pitcher returning from TJ. Parnell is a shaky selection in shallow mixed leagues but deeper leagues and NL-only fantasy owners would be wise to use a late pick. Regardless he’s a great waiver watch should he go undrafted as he could be a great low risk, high reward option.
Mejia is a roller coaster of emotions to watch. He’s a great definition of great effectiveness but terrible efficiency. While he did convert 28 of 31 Save Ops in 2014, he sports a career 1.51 WHIP and .330 BABIP. Not exactly the ingredients for success in the closer role (See: Jim Johnson). Unless Mejia can improve upon these numbers and be lights out to begin 2015, I see the Mets giving Parnell a chance once he’s ready to return.
Philadelphia Phillies
Head Honcho: Jonathan Papelbon, Next in line: Ken Giles
The Papelbon Watch never culminated into a change of scenery for Paps, but there’s no question Philadelphia would like to shed his expiring $13M salary for some pieces to contend down the road. Papelbon’s days of being a flamethrower closer are gone; his K/9 stayed below nine for the second straight campaign and his fastball continued to lose velocity, down to 91.3. That being said he actually had his best year in Philly, converting 39 of 43 Save Ops while posting a 2.04 ERA and 0.90 WHIP and finishing 9th among closers in fantasy. His success can be attributed to his slider; he increased his usage to 14.9% and produced a 6.8 wSL (Slider Runs above Average). Papelbon is currently ranked 19th among RP on Yahoo! which is good value for fantasy owners, especially if (when) he is traded to a contender this summer.
Papelbon’s replacement, Ken Giles, has closer material written all over him and really just needs a chance. He had a superb rookie year for Philadelphia, posting a 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a 12.61 K/99 with a fastball averaging 97.2 MPH. If Papelbon gets traded don’t be shocked when Giles ends the year as a top 15 RP. Grab him in NL-Only and 14+ team leagues, and shallow league players should keep their eyes open to any Papelbon news and snag Giles when the time comes.
Washington Nationals
Head Honcho: Drew Storen, Next in line: Casey Janssen
Storen snagged the closer role from Rafael Soriano in September and ran with it, finishing with 11 saves and an ERA of 0.00 in September. Not too shabby. In 2015 he’ll reclaim the role with arguably – ok, maybe not arguably - the best rotation in baseball setting him up. Storen should see an abundance of save ops in 2015 and the only thing in his way is health. He’s currently dealing with a hand injury but should be ready for Opening Day. He’s currently ranked 10th among closers by Yahoo! which is a fair value, but personally I expect him to outperform Cody Allen and Trevor Rosenthal.
Casey Janssen is the contingency plan in Washington. He was a serviceable closer in Toronto, converting 25 of 30 Save Ops in 2014 to go along with a 3.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His 5.52 K/9 is a little concerning but he was much more effective away from Rogers Centre, which gives hope that he can improve upon his 2014 numbers. Keep Janssen on your watch list but don’t sleep on Aaron Barrett. Barrett has experience as a closer in Washington’s farm system and has a career 10.84 K/9 rate, which makes him an intriguing option for Matt Williams.
