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Our Ben Rosener takes a look at the fantasy baseball impact of Jesus Aguilar signing with the Oakland Athletics and Zack Greinke reportedly re-signing with the Kansas City Royals ahead of the upcoming 2023 season.
Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts this Spring.
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues this Spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with a look at a pair of Major League veterans.
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Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Jesus Aguilar Signing In Oakland With The A's
Spending most of the season with the Miami Marlins before joining the Baltimore Orioles down the stretch, Aguilar had a bit of a down year at the plate, batting .235 with a .281 on-base percentage and a .144 ISO in 507 plate appearances. He also finished in the 37th percentile or lower in xBA, strikeout rate, xwOBA, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, walk rate, and chase rate on the season.
Still, he hit 16 home runs in those 507 plate appearances, tied for the third most he’s ever hit in a season. But, it’s hard to see that type of power surfacing in Oakland with the A’s. Aguilar’s expected home run number for Oakland’s home park was 14 last year, and his career expected home run metric for the Oakland Coliseum is 94 compared to an actual 112 lifetime Major League home runs.
Even in his 35-home run season breakout season in 2018, Aguilar’s expected home run number in Oakland would’ve been much lower at 27.
It’s just not the most opportune place for home run hitters, and it’s not like the first baseman and designated will have the opportunity to offset that with a plethora of RBI opportunities. The A’s finished with the second-fewest runs scored in the league last season and will enter the 2023 season without three of their top four players where wRC+ was concerned from 2022. That group includes Sean Murphy, who logged a 122 wRC+, 18 home runs, and a .332 on-base percentage in 612 plate appearances in his final year in Oakland before being traded to Atlanta.
The plate appearances might be plentiful in Oakland for Aguilar in 2023, but his home run and RBI numbers might not be. Furthermore, even in the event that he does provide solid production where batting average and on-base percentage are concerned, there’s the possibility the rebuilding A’s trade him at the deadline. In that hypothetical scenario, Aguilar might not get the regular plate appearances on a contending team to be fantasy relevant outside of deeper leagues, regardless of how productive he is.
Selling For Fantasy Baseball
Zack Greinke Reportedly Returning To Kansas City With The Royals
Greinke is reportedly re-signing with the Royals per a tweet from Bob Fescoe of 610 Sports in Kansas City on Monday. Fescoe tweeted:
“Royals have reached a deal to bring Zack Greinke back for one more year, per source. Deal will be officially announced tomorrow afternoon. #royals.”
Greinke, who made his Major League debut for Kansas City back in 2004, pitched for the club last season. In 2022, the veteran logged a 3.68 ERA and a 4.03 FIP in 137 innings of work, registering four pitcher wins in 26 starts for a rebuilding Royals club.
The right-hander has seen his strikeout numbers drop significantly in the past few years, culminating with a career-low 4.80 strikeouts per nine innings this past year. Suffice it to say, despite the solid ERA, that’s not ideal for fantasy managers.
Zack Greinke Strikeouts Per Nine Innings Numbers Since 2020
- 2020: 67 IP, 9.00 K/9
- 2021: 171 IP, 6.32 K/9
- 2022: 137 IP, 4.80 K/9
With another franchise in 2023, Greinke might’ve been a candidate for under-the-radar fantasy success as a streaming option with more pitcher-win upside. Now, reportedly back in Kansas City, he won’t quite have that upside on a Royals team that finished 2022 with 65 wins on their record. It’s also the same Royals team that has done little to upgrade their position player group to date this winter. Kansas City has traded away Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor this offseason after moving Andrew Benintendi, Carlos Santana, and Whit Merrifield during the regular season.
In addition to a low WHIP, fantasy managers ideally are looking for three other things from streaming options. In no particular order, those three things are pitcher win potential, strikeout upside, and the ability to keep earned runs to a minimum. Greinke might just be able to do that last one, but given the state of the Royals lineup and his declining strikeout metrics, it’s unclear if he can routinely deliver on the other two for fantasy managers.
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