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How to Avoid the "My Guys" Trap


Have you ever sat alone in a dark room and addressed your perception versus reality problem? The problem I’m referring to, naturally, is your love for certain fantasy players and lack of recognition for others. Have you mock drafted and paid attention to the guys with higher ranks that you just gloss over until your eyes widen upon reading your guys’ names? We all justify this bias with supporting arguments like, “it will be more fun to watch the guys I like” or “I should reach for the players I really believe in.”

You know what’s more fun than watching your pathetic team or players? Winning! So, get over yourself and this delusion that you have a better idea of who is going to exceed ADP than the best professional rankers. It doesn’t matter who won you a week two seasons ago or what team you root for in real life. Pull yourself together because the first step to recovery is admission and you’ve been getting high on your own supply.

It should be no surprise that “your guys” are many peoples’ guys because we like exciting young players with tremendous upside. And in turn, we don’t like experienced players and high floors nearly enough. Here are a group of players with tremendous hype followed by my reasoning for going sober, and selecting one of the less sexy options.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Oh, the Kyler Murray hype. This guy is being considered the next Patrick Mahomes before ever playing a real NFL snap. People seem to forget that Mahomes sat for a season before exploding on the scene and plays for the best offense in football!

So, slow your roll and get greater value with Old Man Rivers!  That’s right, he ain’t sexy, he doesn’t run but dude can ball and has Hunter Henry back to help raise all ships. Philip Rivers is my first unsexy guy on the list.

 

Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers

The next coming of Percy Harvin has been the best receiver in camp! He’s really fast, he’s really sexy and he’s gonna go for 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns! Psyche, he ain’t gonna do that because Christian McCaffrey is gonna get 657 targets and D.J. Moore is gonna fully breakout after leading all NFL receivers in yards after the catch and contact in his rookie year.

But guess who is as sexy as a pair of grandma panties and already has a season of 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns on his resume? He goes by Allen Robinson and he’s only 26! He’s great on contested catches, doesn’t drop the ball and is now two years removed from his ACL tear.  Any improvement from what was terribly inaccurate QB play by Mitch Trubisky and ARob will be back on the catwalk.

 

Josh Jacobs / David Montgomery, RB, Raiders / Bears

The two sexy rookies who are poised to receive significant opportunities in 2019 should have good years, but I’m going slightly later for greater value and less risk in Mark Ingram. Back to Jacobs and Montgomery for a second: They are both slow with over 4.60 40 times. Jacobs wasn’t close to dominant in college and Montgomery had a 15th percentile Spark X score. All I’m saying is that they could underwhelm, even if opportunity trumps talent.

But we have seen Ingram succeed time and time again and his opportunity is great. Baltimore has a fantastic O-line and loves to run. And you know what helps RBs immensely? Running QBs who keep linebackers on their toes.

 

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This dude is surging and, in all honesty, I love me some Godwin. I mean I literally just included him as a breakout candidate. But have we gotten too hot on him? Godwin is creeping his way up to two players on one of the best offenses in football who are excellent options but lack sex appeal:  Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks. Every time the fourth round comes around I am glossed over with boredom by Cooks and Woods and all worked up at seeing guys like Godwin and Golladay right there. These guys have the look….the magic.

But get yourself some Woods and Cooks instead, who finished as WR 10 and 12 respectively, to solidify your WR corps and reach in later rounds on guys like Dede Westbrook or MVS.

 

Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Vance is a man…..a man that stiff-armed another NFL player to death….yes he's dead now. And Vance should have a great season with Jesse James gone and all the vacated targets in Pittsburgh. But is he worth a seventh-round selection?

Another TE that is younger and equally if not more athletic, but tends to bore us is Austin Hooper. In fact, his most comparable player on Player Profiler is Vance McDonald. Hooper is going into his fourth season and has improved nicely in the last two going from 19 receptions to 49 and 71. Atlanta has a great offense and should be scoring lots of touchdowns as per usual. I think you should take a more valuable WR or RB pick in the seventh round and grab Hooper sometimes as late as the 10th/11th rounds.

Other honorable mentions for players that are boring but get me aroused include Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Julian Edelman, Marvin Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Dak Prescott, Jarvis Landry, James White, Latavius Murray, Sammy Watkins, and Donte Moncrief.

 

Thanks as always and hit me up on Twitter @ BrettMitchellFB.

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