Free XFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 4

March 11, 2023

Free XFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 4 (2023). Our best bets and top XFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 XFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for XFL action, so join me here and let's get Xtreme. Be sure to also read all our other weekly XFL fantasy football articles.

Also, don't fret...I'll be back, right here, to talk about gambling on the USFL in April; and if we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that could've only been originally brought to us by the minds behind the WWE. XFL 2023: let's rock. We're on a roll into Week 4 and starting to get a real sense for where each team is at and where they are headed.

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders
2. Houston Roughnecks
3. St. Louis Battlehawks
4. Seattle Sea Dragons
5. San Antonio Brahmas
6. Las Vegas Vipers
7. Arlington Renegades
8. Orlando Guardians

Week 4 MVP Ladder

1. Brandon Silvers (QB, Roughnecks)
2. A.J. McCarron (QB, Battlehawks)
3. Ben DiNucci (QB, Sea Dragons)
4. Max Borghi (RB, Roughnecks)
5. Jahcour Pearson (WR, Sea Dragons)

Houston Roughnecks at Orlando Guardians (Saturday, March 11th, 7 PM)

Best Bet: Roughnecks (-8.5)

The Roughnecks are getting even fewer points than Arlington was favored by last week over Orlando, and way fewer points than their week 1 33-12 trouncing of Orlando. Even still, and even with the reported sale of a playbook from Quinten Dormady aside, the Guardians did look marginally better in their 10-9 loss to the Renegades last week (the one game I did not hit on), and while Houston has had a dominant 3-0 start, one could argue that they have held a distinct advantage in starting the season with three road games against three of the worst teams in the league (while they play at Orlando this week, that "worst teams" argument won't change after this week). If Orlando is improving, Houston is getting way scarier. There offense is strong and well-rounded behind Brandon Silvers and Max Borghi, and their defensive line is going to knock a couple of inches back on Paxton Lynch's hairline this week. Don't worry about Houston's first road game, I'd take them up to -11.

San Antonio Brahmas at Seattle Sea Dragons (Saturday, March 11th, 10 PM)

Best Bet: Brahmas (+4.5)

The Seattle Sea Dragons were in another squeaker this past week en route to a last-second victory over the also improved Vegas Vipers and a competent looking Brett Hundley. Ben DiNucci finally put up some of the big numbers that we hoped he'd be able to, and Morgan Ellison showed life out of the Seattle backfield as well. The San Antonio Brahmas on the other hand looked strikingly mediocre this past week in a nine-point road loss to the Houston Roughnecks wherein which Brahmas QB Jack Coan threw for just 60 yards. I think at home in Seattle where they get down for their alternative sports, that the Sea Dragons will carry a half-point advantage in this game when they were already the better team. However, I think the run focus of San Antonio and surprisingly conservative HC Hines Ward will keep the ball in the Brahmas hands for long enough, and that the San Antonio defense can force enough mistakes from Ben DiNucci to be able to cover this one, but don't take them on the ML. I would roll with the Rock's squad down to +3.5.

Arlington Renegades at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, March 12th, 4 PM)

Best Bet: Battlehawks (-4)

The Arlington Renegades had Kyle Sloter instead of Drew Plitt starting at quarterback last week, and they looked worse than they have all season on the way to sneaking by Orlando for a 10-9 win--so it seems like there is much more wrong with Arlington than we originally anticipated as they hilarious stand with a 2-1 record. St. Louis on the other hand has looked fantastic after their miracle week 1 victory over San Antonio and in three away games (including a loss to the undefeated Defenders away at one of the top XFL home environments) now also sit at 2-1. This is going to be the Battlehawks first home game in what seems like will be an extremely raucous environment. The Renegades lost away to Houston 23-14, and I think that this game should go very similarly, except that the Renegades might manage even fewer points against the stout Battlehawks defensive line. Expect St. Louis to run the Renegades out of the Dome--this is the most confident I am in laying points all week--I would take the Battlehawks up to -8.5.

Vegas Vipers at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, March 12th, 7 PM)

Best Bet: Defenders (-6)

No one wants to give as much credit to what we have seen from the D.C. Defenders so far this season--they have managed to win impressively without big QB performances. The Vegas Vipers and Brett Hundley looked much better last week in a 30-26 shootout loss to the Sea Dragons, but how quickly it is forgotten that the Defenders are coming off a six-point home victory against a much better team in the St. Louis Battlehawks, not to mention their 18-6 pounding of the Vipers in week 2 on Vegas's home turf (or grass, whatever they use). Issues with Jordan Ta'amu and push for D'Eriq King aside, the Defenders are a well-coached, thoroughly well-rounded team, while all we have seen from Vegas thus far is that Brett Hundley can carry them to a certain point against softer XFL defenses. A six-point win would be right in stride for the Defenders, but I think that their questions on offense paired with the high-volume offensive potential for Vegas this week provides for a little less wiggle-room than the Battlehawks game--so I would take D.C. up to -7.

Wager of the Week

San Antonio at Seattle Under 40.5

The high-octane offensive potential of the Seattle Sea Dragons came out this week, but that doesn't mean that Ben DiNucci is suddenly mistake-proof. I think San Antonio will focus even more on the run game this week to keep the ball in their possession (which is not the Sea Dragons' strength  on defense) for as much time as possible, and I would go even a bit lower than that 40.5, because I see this game ending anywhere from 18-14 to 21-16 Seattle.

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