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Scott Engel analyzes 2019 fantasy football ADP trends for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) in terms of NFL player values. Which players are being overvalued or undervalued?
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As we get into the final big draft weekend of the 2019 season, we check in on some later preseason trends in Fantasy Football Players Championhsip (FFPC Drafts). Now is the best tme to be drafting as we are drawing very close to the regular season and have a better grasp of news and injuries.
Here are some recent trends from the high-stakes community.
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Latest FFPC ADP Trends
Bright Brown: With the trade of Duke Johnson and reports indicating that he may be used more in the passing game this season, we have seen Nick Chubb shoot up the draft boards in high stakes formats. He is now the eighth RB being taken in FFPC drafts while his ADP is 11th on three other notable sites. Chubb has to prove he can e a productive pass-catcher first, so I am not quite ready to move him into the first round. The Cleveland hype machine impacts 2019 Fantasy Football values yet again.
Cookin’: Dalvin Cook has enjoyed an offseason where he was not recovering from any significant injuries and he gave a possible preview of better things to come when he tore off an 85-yard run in the third week of the preseason. Cook is explosive and versatile and there are no significant concerns about major injuries with him right now, although minor ones may continue to tug at him. He is now No. 9 off the board at RB in FFPC drafts.
Here comes the 'hawk: Chris Carson has been rising in appeal recently as the buzz about him continues to get louder. Playing on the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL last year and with continued speculation about him catching more passes, Carson has soared to the No. 17 RB spot in FFPC drafts. He should play well when available, but Carson is already a known injury risk because of his overly physical running style.
Mack Moving Down: The retirement of Andrew Luck has taken an obvious adverse effect on the ADP of Marlon Mack. He is now the No. 24 RB off the board. That puts him right at the end of the RB2 run in PPR formats. Obviously, Mack cannot be the finisher for what could have been a very powerful offense with Luck at the controls. But Jacoby Brissett is a respectable backup and the Colts have much more weaponry than they did when he last started in 2017, and the offense should at least be decent. So Mack is not a really bad RB to settle for as your second starter.
Booming Buc: The appeal of Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin has been increasing throughout the preseason and seems to be higher than ever right now. He is now the 16th WR being taken in FFPC drafts. He is being picked earlier in the FFPC than on any other platform. There will be very high expectations for Godwin and he will be very closely watched early in the regular season. Being tied to the erratic Jameis Winston does make Godwin a potential candidate to disappoint. Because of his QB play I don’t quite view him as highly as the FFPC players do. I have him ranked as WR24.
Welcome Back Josh: The high stakes crowd seems more willing to take the risk on the returning Josh Gordon more than drafters on any other site. Gordon’s ADP of 27 at WR is the highest on any Fantasy platform. He is being taken between 30th and 42nd on other sites. The unpredictability of Gordon is aptly baked into his ADP. He can still produce WR1 numbers at times, but you take the chance that he could disappear from your roster without real warning.
Breakout Cat?: Dede Westbrook was the best WR for the Jaguars last year, and appears to be the top pass-catcher to draft from the team again. Nick Foles and Westbrook have started to develop a solid rapport in the preseason. He is now WR29 off the board in FFPC drafts. That does seem a little high for a WR from anoffense that should certainly be improved, but lacks apparent upside.
Down on Dante: There was a lot of optimism surrounding Dante Pettis entering the preseason, but it has cooled in a major way. Pettis’ preseason has been bumpy, as he has been called out publicly by the San Francisco coaching staff and has also dealt with a groin issue. His FFPC ADP has plummeted to WR44. If Pettis can bounce back during the regular season, which is a realistic possibility, he could turn out to be a value at his current ADP.
Liking Lamar: All of a sudden, Lamar Jackson is being drafted in QB1 territory in the FFPC. He is now the 11th QB off the board in the high stakes formats. He has an ADP of 13 to 17 at QB on all other notable Fantasy platforms. Jackson can only improve as a passer this season, but he still has a lot to prove before I can consider him in the QB1 range.
Insulting the Steeler?: The skepticism surrounding Ben Roethlisberger is increasing and we have yet to see a 2019 game that matters. Coming off maybe his best year ever, Roethlisberger is the 18th QB being taken in the FFPC. That is way overrating the loss of Antonio Brown. Roethlisberger has helped create and moved on from other WR1 types and he will do it again. Wait until late at QB and grab a guy who can still be a Top 5 Fantasy passer. As an additional note, Kirk Cousins has felll to QB18 even though he has the same Top Two WRs as last year and an improved RB situation for support with Cook now healthy. See how deep QB is?
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