Fantasy Football Running Backs Set To Outperform Their ADP In 2024

August 5, 2024

Which fantasy football running backs are set to outperform their ADP in 2024? Kyle Lindemann provides four players who are potentially amazing values in drafts.

As the 2024 fantasy football draft season heats up, it’s time to look at those running backs who are poised to sprint past their current ADPs and give fantasy managers that championship edge. Often, these under-the-radar rushers can be the difference between a middle-of-the-pack finish and clinching the playoffs. Diving into the depth of late-round picks or undervalued backs due to off-season moves or coaching changes can uncover the gems that make or break a fantasy season.

Among the sea of talent, a few names are already bubbling up as potential league-winners, such as Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, who is being drafted as the RB11 with an overall ADP of 26.7 in half-PPR formats. For this article, we are going to exclude the top 15 running backs by ADP because let's be honest, it's easier to pick the winners when you're doing it from the top. If you're looking for some mid- and late-round gems at running back, you've come to the right place.

Over the next month, it's important to keep an eye on training camp battles and preseason performances as they'll be the key to identifying potential breakouts. Teams often shift their depth charts based on these outings, and a back initially pegged for a backup role can quickly find themselves leading the charge. Remember, the goal isn't just to draft a star -- it's to draft a star before everyone else knows they've found one. Watching these developments closely will give you a leg up on the competition, potentially turning a late-round pick into your weekly starter with top-tier production. Now, let's dig into several backs set to outperform their ADP in 2024, using ADP data from FantasyPros.

James Conner, RB - Arizona Cardinals

2024 Fantasy Football ADP: RB21 - 61.4 ADP

While he missed four games due to injury, Conner was arguably at his best, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and rushing for 1,043 yards, both career highs. When you realize that he performed this well despite the absence of quarterback Kyler Murray for most of the season, it's even more impressive. Yes, the Cardinals drafted Florida State running back Trey Benson at No. 66 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the coaching staff and front office love Conner. For now, he feels entrenched as the clear RB1 and headed for a bell-cow type of role.

Arizona added wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick and made several upgrades along the offensive line, which included signing veteran offensive tackle Jonah Williams. Given that Murray is fully healthy to start the season and the offense is in its second year under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, it's hard not to feel very optimistic for the Cardinals offense in 2024, and Conner will likely be a big part of it. What makes Conner so valuable is that he is the complete back who never needs to leave the field. He can pick up the tough yards, catch passes, pass protect with ease, and has a nose for finding the end zone in goal-line situations.

2 minutes and 23 seconds of #Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon telling you to stop drafting Trey Benson at his current ADP (115 on @UnderdogFantasy) pic.twitter.com/9wXw71Bnhv

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 31, 2024

While Conner is now 29 years old and has had injury concerns (just 13 games each of the last two years), he has shown no signs of slowing down. Unless his body is just completely worn down and Benson completely overtakes him in training camp, expect a healthy dose of Conner in 2024. It might not always be flashy, but for fantasy purposes, it can still be very good. Conner is a high-end RB2 with upside.

Tyjae Spears, RB - Tennessee Titans

2024 Fantasy Football ADP: RB36 - 104.1 ADP

The Titans made headlines with their ambitious overhaul to elevate their offense, especially after finishing 31st in pace of play last season. They've roped in former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as head coach, aiming to propel young QB Will Levis and the team's offense out of the backwaters of predictability. Additions like Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley signaled a clear intent: Tennessee is ready to leave behind its conservative past for a more explosive, modern NFL offense.

Zooming in on its backfield, Tyjae Spears is shaping up as a fascinating sleeper pick for 2024 fantasy drafts. As a rookie, he showed flashes of brilliance, contributing effectively both on the ground and through the air -- racking up over 800 total yards and scoring three times. Known for his crisp route running and smooth hands, Spears offers versatility that could perfectly match Callahan’s up-tempo offensive vision. With his late ADP, Spears presents an irresistible mix of low cost and high upside.

The biggest question for fantasy managers is how the Titans will balance the workload between the dynamic Pollard and the promising Spears. Both backs have the skill set to thrive in Tennessee's revamped scheme, but it's Spears who might just emerge as the exceptional value pick, especially in PPR formats.

With the Titans committed to a more balanced and aggressive approach, keeping an eye on how this backfield develops could be key. Spears, with his dual-threat capabilities, could very well become a breakout star, making him a potentially shrewd investment for those looking to steal a march in their fantasy leagues.

Remember when people said Tyjae Spears wouldn’t be good cause he has no knees?

Couldn’t be me pic.twitter.com/fCGMa28be1

— Rob (@Quintorris_) July 18, 2024

One thing that fantasy football ADP and projections don't account for when it comes to running backs is their contingent upside. What happens to Spears' fantasy production if Pollard misses time or if he completely outperforms Pollard and earns a larger snap share? Based on his strong receiving profile, it sure feels like we are drafting Spears at his absolute floor in 2024.

Zach Charbonnet, RB - Seattle Seahawks

2024 Fantasy Football ADP: RB42 - 125.0 ADP

With the Seahawks rolling out a fresh coaching duo -- Mike Macdonald helming the team and Ryan Grubb spearheading the offense -- the vibe around the 2024 season is all about stepping on the gas. The plan is to crank up the tempo and let the passes fly, setting the stage for a potential fantasy goldmine in Charbonnet. When you look at his current draft position, sliding a whole six rounds after Kenneth Walker III, Charbonnet emerges as a stealthy bargain.

Diving into the tape, it's clear: KWIII packs more dynamite per carry, always hunting for that highlight-reel home run. The problem is he's just as likely to get snared behind the line, leaving yards on the field. Charbonnet, on the other hand, doesn't mess around. He's all about that straightforward, smashmouth style, picking his spots and bulldozing ahead, which might just sync better with Grubb's quicker offensive rhythms along with his more complete receiving profile than KWIII.

What if I told you Zach Charbonnet had nearly identical draft capital to KWIII, played 48% of snaps as a rookie with a better success rate as a rusher and receiver, and has a new HC/OC who plans to be more up-tempo, yet is still being drafted over 6 rounds later than his teammate? pic.twitter.com/1oqQuc8xbW

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) July 10, 2024

Now, which back will Macdonald and Grubb lean on? It's still up in the air. But with Geno Smith calling the shots and a receiver corps featuring DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett -- not to mention newcomer Sam Howell as a failsafe to keep the floor from falling out on this offense -- the Seahawks are too stacked to ignore.

The Pete Carroll era, marked by a snail-paced offense (dead last in plays per game in 2023), is over, and this new regime is promising a full-throttle approach. So, while the pecking order in the backfield is still a bit murky, snagging Charbonnet later in drafts is a wise choice. Given the shake-up with the coaching staff and the Seahawks' past underutilization of their play volume, 2024 could finally see both these backs hitting their stride. But for now, Charbonnet is the savvier pick of the two.

Honorable Mention

Javonte Williams, RB - Denver Broncos

2024 Fantasy Football ADP: RB33 - 94.6 ADP

A lot of this comes down to the overall success of the Broncos offense and how head coach Sean Payton decides to utilize his backfield. If it ends up being a three-way committee with rookie Audric Estime and the talented Jaleel McLaughlin, resulting in limited touches for Williams, then he likely won't pay off for fantasy.

But what if Williams ends up with the lion's share of the workload in 2024 or ends up being traded elsewhere? He has shown solid three-down ability in the past and is a terrific pass-catcher, but suffering a gruesome knee injury where he tore all of the ligaments in his knee in 2022 put Williams' career on a different trajectory. He was probably rushed back last year, and if Williams can bring back some of that old burst, watch out.

Is there anyone left off this list who you think could be an amazing value for fantasy football in 2024? Don't forget to holler at me on X!

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