RADIO
Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Max Kulish identifies one player for each category on the Atlanta Hawks.
With fantasy basketball season rapidly approaching, it's time to look at the NBA landscape from a team-by-team perspective.
If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on players from each team that we see as undervalued for the upcoming season or who are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Atlanta Hawks based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2022-2023 season. Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@Maxadelphia) for more fantasy basketball insight (amongst other things).
Editor's Note: Stay on top of your draft prep with RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, featuring expert analysis, ADPs, and draft insights for both PPR and non-PPR leagues.
Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Clint Capela
Entering his 10th season, it is admittedly laughable seeing Capela being listed as a "breakout" player. However, the Hawks simply don't have many young players that I expect to be fantasy-relevant in the early stages of the season. De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are going into their 5th and 7th seasons respectively, and I've seen nothing to indicate that this is the year they take a leap. Saddiq Bey could fit the description but he saw his numbers dip across the board once traded to Atlanta from Detroit.
I know what you're thinking: "He just said he doesn't see those guys taking a leap after being in the league for a handful of years, and now he's saying Clint Capela will break out????"
Capela seems primed to outperform his 10th-round ADP, largely thanks to the departure of John Collins to Utah. Capela might not have a deep bag, but he does exactly what he needs to do in pick-and-rolls with Trae Young, and if you play with the guy who leads the league in assists, chances are you're getting some of those buckets.
Even if Capela doesn't increase his production at all, you're drafting a guy who averages a double-double for his career and has shown borderline elite defensive capabilities. At cost, I'd say Capela is the Hawk I feel best about after Trae Young.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Dejounte Murray
Admittedly, this is splitting hairs, but when only three Hawks are being drafted in the top 110 players, only three players are really eligible for this label.
Murray's ADP currently sits in the early 3rd round, and generally speaking, I think he's a fine pick there. However, if guys like Jaylen Brown and De'Aaron Fox are available (both within two ADP of Murray) I'd lean towards either of them.
It feels prematurely wrong to label a guy with such a clear role and a fair ADP a "bust," but taking a secondary offensive option who isn't truly ELITE in any particular category might just not provide the upside needed to bring home a trophy for your fantasy team.
Dejounte Murray said that next season being a Play-In team is not an option. He said top 4 seed.
— Lauren L. Williams (@WilliamsLaurenL) October 2, 2023
Fantasy Basketball Lock: Trae Young
Trae was once again a fantasy superstar, leading the league in total assists, and finishing 2nd in Assists Per Game. However, it was disappointing to see both his overall FG and 3-point FG shooting percentages drop.
There was no secret about it; Young and former coach Nate MacMillan were not exactly buddy-buddy by the time MacMillan was fired shortly after the All-Star break. Young saw a bit of an efficiency resurgence once Quinn Snyder was brought in as MacMillan's replacement. Due to Snyder's ball-movement-heavy offensive philosophy, I'm figuring Young will sacrifice a bit of his ludicrously high usage rate to ultimately become more efficient.
Young commented on how he's continually "disrespected" as a player, and personally, I like my superstars with a chip on their shoulder.
Trae Young, on not being picked for Team USA for this summer's World Cup and the overall level of respect paid to his career relative to other elite NBA players.
"If you don't think I've been disrespected, you're just not telling the truth."
— Kevin Chouinard (@KLChouinard) October 2, 2023
Conclusion
The Hawks once again see themselves on the outside looking in at the East's upper-echelon of teams. Their backcourt duo of Murray and Young can be good enough to take over games themselves, but yet again there's a severe lack of wing talent and options. I will shout out De'Andre Hunter as a perennial good streaming option in advance, he's a guy who seems to bounce right on the cusp of rosterable every year.
Murray has set the bar for this Hawks team as "a top 4 seed", which I think would be a best-case scenario. I do believe in Quinn Snyder as a coach, and think they have some interesting young pieces, but overall this roster is largely unappealing for fantasy purposes.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!
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