Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 22)

August 16, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 22 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 22 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Brendan Rodgers and Shea Langeliers.

We'll take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of meaningful trends that can be revealed in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names.

Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Andrew Vaughn were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well. Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 8/14

Don't look now, but Andrew McCutchen is up to 16 home runs on the season and should log the most he's had in a season since 2021. But, I'm moving down the list...

Brendan Rodgers (9)

There was some optimism surrounding Brendan Rodgers after a strong spring training and heading into the season healthy, and despite staying mostly healthy this season (he missed two weeks on the IL in June), the former third overall draft pick has underwhelmed.

That is until the calendar flipped to August. This month, the 28-year-old is hitting .404 (19-for-47) with six doubles and two home runs in 12 games. The right-handed hitter is currently riding a nine-game hit streak and has scored a run in four straight.

BRod 💣 pic.twitter.com/8BEQpRIQwS

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 13, 2024

He's available in over 80% of Yahoo leagues and begins a three-game series at home against the Padres this weekend where he's been better than on the road (.342/.393/.484 vs. .222/.262/.354).

Gavin Sheets (6)

This is a name that doesn't pop up often and six-game streaks aren't all that rare, but this is just the type of player we want popping up in this article from time to time so we can get in on the ground floor of a breakout.

During Gavin Sheets' six-game hit streak, the 28-year-old has gone 13-for-24 (.542), including four multi-hit games, with five doubles, one home run, six RBI, and three runs scored.

Gavin Sheets sent that one to the seats! pic.twitter.com/UBycnQs9Mc

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) August 15, 2024

The former second-round draft pick is eligible at both 1B and OF on Yahoo and is available in nearly all leagues.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/14

There are some interesting names mixed in with some bigger names on this list. We'll discuss two of the more intriguing cases below.

Shea Langeliers (.600)

Shea Langeliers is on pace to set a career-high in batting average this season, with it currently sitting at .224. That being the case, you can imagine his name does not pop up on this list often, which is why we need to take a deeper look.

The former first-round draft pick had a couple of four-hit games this past week, going 9-for-15 (.600) in four games with a pair of doubles and a home run.

Shea Langeliers' hot bat is making history 🔥 pic.twitter.com/eZyUsjNWWp

— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) August 14, 2024

The 26-year-old's contact rate has crept up over the past couple of seasons with the strikeout rate ticking down, so he may be starting to figure things out at the plate, aside from hitting home runs.

Buyer beware, however, as this hot stretch was preceded by a 1-for-24 (.050) stretch. Regardless, he's tied for second-most home runs at the catcher position with 22, which is where his fantasy relevance lies for now.

(Update: Langeliers went 3-for-4 with a double, a walk, and a run scored on Thursday)

Jake McCarthy (.467)

If you're a regular follower of this article, you'll know I discussed Jake McCarthy in my Week 20 article, and if you're like me, you picked him up and enjoyed his continued breakout over the last couple of weeks.

Looking at the list above, over the past week he's tallied the most total bases (26) and far and away the most RBI (15). Now, if he could only steal a few more bases.

With a 97th-percentile sprint speed and 15 steals at the end of July, fantasy managers surely were hoping for more than just two stolen bases in August during this hot stretch.

Still, the 27-year-old offers lots of fantasy goodness hitting out of the two-hole in the order as he has done in five of the last seven games, and he's still available in over 40% of Yahoo leagues.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/14

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points.

Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Juan Soto is having a heck of a week, and hopefully, Jorge Soler's MRI comes back clean because he was hitting well and had a 22-game on-base streak going. But we'll skip down to third on the list first.

Jhonkensy Noel (.600)

Jhonkensy Noel was putting up big power numbers in the minors before his call-up this season, belting 18 home runs in 65 games and slugging .578. "Big Christmas" has done the same since his call-up, blasting nine home runs in 33 games and slugging .598.

Jhonkensy Noel's 2 HR power the @CleGuardians to their 70th win of the season. pic.twitter.com/Hd1bJtjSOI

— MLB (@MLB) August 13, 2024

The 30.9% K% needs to come down if he wants to stick around long-term, but for fantasy, if you need power, then the 23-year-old could be your guy. Jhonk is available in almost 90% of Yahoo leagues for the taking.

David Peralta (.480)

Like McCarthy a couple of weeks ago, we try to uncover these breakouts before our league mates and use them to our advantage. David Peralta has been getting regular at-bats lately, starting in right field in seven straight games for the Padres.

The 37-year-old is making the most of this opportunity as well, going 11-for-25 (.480) with three doubles, three home runs, seven RBI, and five runs scored over the past week.

The veteran does not have the speed that McCarthy offers, but managers desperately trying to make the fantasy playoffs and need a hot bat could look to add him, and the former Silver Slugger is available in nearly all Yahoo leagues.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 8/14

Xavier Edwards (7)

Xavier Edwards continues to hit and walk, posting a .400 OBP over the past week, which also continues to afford him stolen-base opportunities.

The 25-year-old has been an amazing waiver-wire find since his recall and has stolen 19 bases in total over his last 29 games. Edwards has a 0.144 SB/PA over that stretch, better than Elly De La Cruz's 0.120.

Xavier Edwards steals 2 bases on back-to-back pitches to create another Marlins run! pic.twitter.com/Ex5zEr8e1r

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) August 14, 2024

The speedster is still available in 20% of Yahoo leagues, grab him if he is on the waiver wire in yours.

Honorable mention: Derek Hill (3) - he's got five SBs total on the season, but three have come in the last week. Miami certainly likes to run now, having stolen the third-most bags as a team since the All-Star break.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 8/14, minimum 300 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Andrew Benintendi (.214 vs. .249)

You don't normally see White Sox hitters discussed in a "breakout" article, let alone two hitters, but here we are with Gavin Sheets and Andrew Benintendi.

While the numbers point to a potential rebound for Benintendi, we may already be witnessing it. The former first-round draft pick has gone 15-for-48 (.313) with five doubles and five home runs over the last 12 games.

1,000 career hits for Andrew Benintendi 👏 pic.twitter.com/nCjuSR28YL

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) August 15, 2024

The 30-year-old's contact rate of 82.1% is better than the league average (77.0%) and his K% of 18.3% is better than the league average (22.3%). With a BABIP of .230 this season compared to a career BABIP of .312, it seems that some bad luck may be to blame.

All of this means that perhaps the breakout is for real and maybe he can ride this momentum through to the end of the season.

Honorable mention: Maikel Garcia (.236 vs. .269) - Maikel Garcia's contact rate and K% are even better than Benintendi's, as is his chase rate, so perhaps Garcia's time is coming.

xBA Overachiever

Data through 8/14, minimum 300 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Connor Wong (.294 vs. .236)

Connor Wong has been mentioned in this article a few times throughout the season, with the first time coming in my Week 5 article when he was hitting .370.

The 28-year-old backstop had a terrible July in which he slashed .211/.286/.368. Now, it feels like we're at a crossroads here in mid-August, as he's currently slashing .283/.298/.413, but it could easily be another .211 BA month or it could be a .300 BA month.

Based on his xBA, we should expect it to drift lower from here, and I believe that it will. Hopefully, he can still provide a handful of homers down the stretch regardless.

(Update: Wong went 1-for-4 on Thursday)

Also: Cody Bellinger (.276 vs. .236)

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