RADIO
Happy friday, folks! We've got a bevy of good baseball games tonight with a Brewers-Cubs appetizer this afternoon to hold us over until the Main slate at 7:05. It's also Chris Tillman day! That fills me with excitement, because I love to stack against Mr. Tillman and see the runs pile up.
As is custom for me, I'll update this Vegas sections with line movement and run projections as they're updated. Right now, the top three run projections of the day (which is fairly low, but everything is relative) are also receiving backing in Vegas, moving the numbers up a few decimal points. The Indians and Orioles have the loftiest projections at 5 runs a piece, followed by the Royals (4.9), Red Sox (4.8) and Blue Jays (4.8).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/27/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Jacob deGrom - SP, at SDP ($10,600)
So many quality pitchers to choose from today in the top tier, but if I had to choose one to lead me in cash (or tournaments), deGrom gets the call. Between himself, Stephen Strasburg and Corey Kluber - I don't really think you can go wrong. But, of course, baseball shows us anything is possible night in and night out - on a three game slate last night, the consensus top three of Chris Sale, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer all ran into trouble (some even worse than others). Anyway, back to DeGrom - he has been super impressive this year and has improved some already elite metrics in the roughly one month sample we have to go on in 2018. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters own a wOBA under .250 against him, he's inducing ground balls at over a 50% rate, his K rate sits at 31% and 26% of his pitches have been 95+ miles per hour. Tonight, against the Padres, he gets a park upgrade and faces a team that is a little more strikeout happy than Strasburg or Kluber's opponents. They also have just one hitter this season with an ISO split over .200 (Wil Myers) and own one of the lowest projected run totals for the day at 3.2.
Also Consider: Corey Kluber - SP, vs SEA ($11,200) - Cash
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Victor Martinez - C, at BAL ($2,500)
Let me preface this section by saying that there are a ton of good first basemen in excellent matchups today, and I implore you to play two of them where you can (C/1B, UTIL slots). That said, if you need lineup differentiation in tournaments or cash savings to spend up elsewhere, I like V-Mart's chances to break out of his mini-slump today. He's a value at this price considering the upside and overall lineup context - especially considering he and his Detroit teammates are facing the worst pitcher in the league. His results this season have left something to be desired, but he does own a 41% hard contact rate in the last 10 days which is reason for optimism.
Joey Votto - 1B, at MIN ($4,000)
Votto is one of the many first basemen with a brilliant matchup today. He and his Reds teammates head up to Minnesota (a sneaky hitter's park, I might add) to face Phil Hughes. Hughes, over the 2017-18 seasons span, has allowed a .448 wOBA and .283 ISO to left-handed hitters and his numbers against righties aren't too much better. Votto owns a .421 wOBA split and has a fairly strong 34% hard hit rate in his last 10. Outside of Votto, I would certainly look to Miguel Cabrera in cash (or GPP Tigers stack) and guys like Carlos Santana for value, and Freddie Freeman for tournaments.
Cesar Hernandez - 2B, vs ATL ($3,500)
Hernandez just keeps on producing and for whatever reason, the price creeps up just minimally. As such, he's a good value this evening with strong upside thanks to the very friendly matchup against Julio Teheran. Teheran struggles mightily to retire lefties, which is just where the switch-hitting Hernandez will dig in tonight. His .347 wOBA split is pretty strong, and he's a great stolen base threat as well.
Todd Frazier - 3B, at SDP ($3,800)
Third base isn't quite as deep to first base today, but it's certainly close. In cash games there are a number of routes you can take in the mid-to-high price range, including Jose Ramirez and Jeimer Candelario, but in tournaments I have big interest in the struggling Todd Frazier. Dating back to last season, he owns an ISO split over .300 against left-handed pitchers and Clayton Richards gives up a lot of big hits to righties. Looking through Frazier's file, it seems he's been the victim of some bad luck. The ISO and wOBA numbers against righties are down, but the hard hit percentage sits at 40% the last two weeks. I think he could break out with a homer tonight.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Nick Williams - OF, vs ATL ($2,000)
The bargain bin is actually quite loaded with upside today, the only problem with diving down there is that you leave a lot of elite talent off your roster - and they, collectively speaking, have some pretty damn good matchups too. Williams is my favorite of the outfield bunch, and very conveniently, he happens to be the minimum price on FanDuel. Not bad for a kid who bats lefties, could hit as high as fourth or fifth in the order, and faces a pitcher who can't get lefties out. Dating back to last season, Williams owns a .208 ISO split against right-handed pitching.
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, at LAA ($4,700)
The right-handed hitting Yanks - and there are quite a few - have a damn good matchup today against Andrew Heaney. He has been getting shelled by righties more than usual, to the tune of allowing a .450 wOBA and a .344 ISO. Stanton, even through his ups and downs in this young season, makes great contact against lefties and I like his chances of a big fly souvenir or two this evening.
J.D. Martinez - OF, vs TBR ($4,000)
Martinez is starting to heat up and he's notorious for smashing southpaws. His ISO split over the past 12 months is an insane .452 (.wOBA .505) and the batted ball data is nearly unbelievable as well. His average batted ball exit velocity sits at 94 miles per hour and an average air distance of 333 feet. That should play quite well in Fenway Park this evening!.
Also Consider: Jesse Winker - OF, at MIN ($2,900)
