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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 9/8/16. These are the top value and sleeper plays for your FanDuel MLB DFS lineups.
It's a get-away-day Thursday, but lucky for us, only the Astros and Indians are taking advantage. That leaves us with a six game Main slate on FanDuel, which I'll breakdown in this post. Let's win some money.
Before I get into the player discussion, let's take a look at a few Vegas lines of interest. Normally I like to call out the games with the highest over/under lines, as they can be helpful when trying to decide who to stack your lineups with. Today, I'd like to point out that there are four games - Phillies at Nationals, Reds at Pirates, Rays at Yankees, and Rangers at Mariners - tied with the highest over/under at 8.5 runs, but overall that's very low figure, and it isn't much of a gap between the other two games, which have lines of 7.5 and 8. As for the heaviest moneyline favorites of the day, that would be the Nationals (-207), followed be the Cardinals (-151) and the Pirates (-149).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 9/8/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Washington Nationals against Alec Asher
The Nationals are not only the heaviest favorites of the day, but they have the highest run total projection (5.1), too, and by a relatively large margin on this short slate. I love the top of this Nationals order, and the matchup is a pretty juicy one, as this is Alec Asher's first start in the MLB this season. Last season, at the major league level in just 29 innings of work, he was hit hard by left-handed batters (.453 wOBA, .663 slugging percentage), as well as right-handed batters (.406 wOBA, .576 slugging percentage). On top of that, he doesn't project to be anything more than a fill-in, back-end starter at the MLB level. My favorite Nationals I'll attack him with are Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. If they're in the lineup, both Clint Robinson and Chris Heisey are solid, cheap options as well that offer salary relief and power upside.
Also Consider: Pittsburgh Pirates against Dan Straily
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Jaime Garcia (SP, STL) - $8,800
Garcia's numbers this season aren't going to blow anyone away, but he's been fairly consistent and he's notorious for pitching much, much better in St. Louis - which is where this game is taking place tonight. His WHIP is a little unattractive at 1.3, but he does a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard (1.06 HR/9) and his decent K/9 rate (7.7) gets a boost tonight against an incredibly strikeout prone Brewers team. On top of that, the Cardinals are the second-biggest favorites of the night, so I like his chances for a win. I'm also a big fan of the fact his line drive rate allowed is only 7% over the last 15 days, and his average distance traveled by the batted ball is just 162 feet during that same stretch - the best figure of any pitcher taking the hill tonight.
Also Consider: AJ Cole (SP, WAS) - $6,500
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - $3,800
Sanchez hasn't been hitting value too often over the past week or so, but a look at his saber stats reveals he may be the victim of bad BABIP luck. He is far and away the most talented hitting catcher on the board tonight, his price has finally dropped below 4K, and he has a hard hit rate of 45% over the past 15 days. His splits - .526 wOBA, .415 ISO - are otherworldly, too.
First Base (1B)
John Jaso (1B, PIT) - $2,600
Jaso is an excellent bargain-bin option this evening and he's been smoking the ball lately. Hitting at the top of the order raises his value, and he has a 61% hard hit rate and 56% line drive rate over the past 15 days. He's facing a right-hander, too. which his splits show he fares much better against.
Second Base (2B)
Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS) - $4,100
I know $4,100 is a little steep, but when you consider the great matchup he has today and look at the gap between him and the next best second baseman option, you realize he's worth the price. For the season, Murphy owns a very impressive .405 wOBA and .261 ISO split against right-handed pitching.
Shortstop (SS)
Adam Frazier (SS, PIT) - $2,500
Frazier is a nice bargain tonight. His split differentials show he has a lower wOBA this season against right-handed pitching, but only by a few points. They also reveal an enormous differential in his ISO split, which is 187 points higher against righties. He should be able to tee off on Dan Straily this evening, along with the rest of his teammates.
Third Base (3B)
Jedd Gyorko (3B, STL) - $3,200
I'm going to keep riding the Gyorko wave until one of two things happens - his price skyrockets or he has a bad matchup. Neither have happened yet, and he has a nice opportunity tonight to pick up where he left off. For the season, he owns a .341 wOBA and .276 ISO split against right-handed pitching.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Trea Turner (OF, WAS) - $4,100
Turner and his teammates have a great matchup tonight, and if Chris Heisey is in the lineup, you could make a good case for doing an entirely Nationals outfield. Turner has been playing well, too, has great lineup order value and his .400 wOBA split is really impressive - especially for a rookie.
Bryce Harper (OF, WAS) - $4,200
Bryce is sporting an impressive 34% hard hit rate over the past two weeks, and a more impressive 20% line drive rate. He's seeing the ball well and making great contact. His matchup tonight is a strong one, especially relative to the rest of the slate, and his .378 wOBA and .237 ISO are strong figures as well.
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX) - $3,200
Mazara has put up some monster numbers in two of his last three games, twice exceeding 25 FanDuel points. He's making strong contact against after a little slump, and he's certainly a bargain now at this price. In 2016, he owns a .349 wOBA and .186 ISO split against right-handed pitching, too.
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