Eric Cross' Dynasty News and Notes - Surging Power Bats, Early FYPD Rankings, James Outman's Struggles and more

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing yet another Tampa Bay bat, two talented yet struggling young outfielders, my early FYPD rankings, and so much more.

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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

Another Surging Tampa Bay Bat

I’ve already discussed Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Josh Lowe in this dynasty news and notes article this season. So why not discuss one more this week with Yandy Diaz.

For his entire Major League career entering 2023, Diaz proved to be an exceptional pure hitter with good contact skills and an even better approach, but that was about it. He hinted at additional power, especially last season, but the groundball rate always limited him in that area. Until this season that is.

Not only did Diaz’s quality of contact metrics improve, but he did so without sacrificing his elite plate discipline metrics. Diaz is currently running a 90% zone contact rate, 20.7% chase rate, 18% whiff rate, 12.7% walk rate, and 14.6% strikeout rate while improving his exit velocity from 92.2 mph to 95.1 mph and his hard-hit rate from 49% to 55.9%. But of course, the most notable improvement is that Diaz is driving the ball in the air more consistently and that has resulted in a dozen home runs through his first 205 plate appearances.

Given his blend of contact, quality of contact, and plate discipline, Diaz can absolutely stick as a top-100 caliber dynasty asset as long as he’s driving the ball in the air consistently. I’m definitely buying right now.

The Struggles of Jarred Kelenic and James Outman

Early in the season, both Jarred Kelenic and James Outman were two of the hottest names in baseball and were flying up dynasty rankings thanks to their respective performances in April.

However, both have steadily been trending down over the last month, and both are plagued by similar issues.

Even when Kelenic and Outman were surging, both of them, especially Outman, were still striking out too often. For the season, Outman is striking out 34.8% of the time with a 69.4% zone contact rate and 40.5% whiff rate. All of those are well worse than league average. However, he doesn't chase much and has recorded a 11.2% barrel rate and 40.2% hard-hit rate this season  with an 85th percentile sprint speed. As I'll mention again with another player below, this is a risky profile to invest in right now. If you roster Outman, you probably have to hold for now as it's not an ideal time to sell. But if he heats up again and you want to capitalize on that, it wouldn't be a bad idea.

That same sentiment can go for Kelenic as well. Even as someone that was probably the biggest Kelenic supporter over the years, it's hard not to notice his flawed profile. Kelenic's quality of contact metrics are, as a whole, the best of his career with a 10.1% barrel rate, 91.5 mph AVG EV, and 48.8% hard-hit rate. However, he's still striking out 31.5% of the time with a 31.1% whiff rate. He's running a better zone contact rate than Outman is (78.4%), but this is another profile susceptible to a high level of peaks and valleys during a full Major League season. Kelenic is also still whiffing over 40% of the time against breaking and off-speed pitches. He can mash fastballs (.345 AVG, .667 SLG), but Major League pitchers have already picked up on that and have throw him 15.8% more breaking balls and 16.9% fewer fastballs since the start of May, which coincides with Kelenic's struggles.

Early FYPD Rankings

The MLB draft is right around the corner, so I figured it was time to publish my initial FYPD rankings over on my Patreon. This year's FYPD class is absolutely loaded at the top, especially with collegiate talent.

For me, there is a discernable first and second tier containing three players each. In tier one, we have Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes from Louisiana State along with Wyatt Langford from Florida. All three are likely to debut in the top-25 of my overall prospect rankings and could move quickly through the minor leagues towards the Majors. Crews will probably even debut as a top-10 prospect in my rankings and Skenes could quickly become the #1 overall pitching prospect in baseball.

In the second tier, we have a pair of high school bats in Walker Jenkins and Max Clark along with the emerging Chase Davis from the University of Arizona. Jenkins and Clark have been considered the two top high school bats all spring and Davis has emerged as one of the best bats in the nation with a plus hit tool and plus or better power.

Here is the entire top 12. To see the entire list plus player writeups, you can access that as a member of my Patreon.

Dynasty Quick Hits

Oh look, Christopher Morel has gone into a funk and is only 2/22 over his last seven games with one walk and 10 strikeouts. SHOCKING! Listen, Morel is an exciting player with solid upside, but the floor is very low here given his terrible plate discipline metrics that have gotten even worse this season. He’s probably always going to have his peaks and valleys, but when you have a 63.6% zone contact rate, 36.7% chase rate, 43.7% whiff rate, and a 38.7% strikeout rate, I’m expecting the valleys to be more prominent and prolonged than the peaks. I’d recommend waiting for him to heat up then see if you can sell him for a top-150 player that is safer.

Jordan Walker is finally back up with St. Louis. While he wasn’t tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A despite heating up recently, I’m still just as high on him now as I was heading into the season. If any sort of buy-low winder opened up in your dynasty leagues, the time is now to pounce as I suspect his value will only rise from here.

Two surprising promotions/assignments to Lo-A this past week were Ethan Salas in the Padres’ organization and Josue De Paula in the Dodgers’ organization. Salas just turned 17 yesterday and De Paula turned 18 just over a week ago. Both are incredibly talented young hitters, but both of these did surprise me as De Paula skipped the Complex Level and Salas skipped all rookie ball levels entirely. De Paula projects as a hitter that can hit for both power and average and I feel his speed, while not great, gets undersold a tad.

As for Salas, the upside on both sides of the ball is considerable and he should have no problem sticking behind the plate long-term. He’s also a better pure hitter than most his age. But what will determine how high he ultimately rises up fantasy-focused prospect rankings is how much power he taps into as he matures physically. But to summarize, both are incredibly talented and could rise up rankings a ton this season. Get in now before it’s too late.

Speaking of Lo-A, we’re finally able to see Kristian Robinson back in action after last playing in the minors back in 2019 due to injuries and off the field issues. Back then, Robinson was a borderline top-10 dynasty prospect given his power, speed, and projection, but that was a long time ago. Is that same level of upside still there? It’d be unfair and risky to assume Robinson can bounce back to where he was given the long layoff, but given the upside and how low his price tag is right now, he’s definitely worth a flier in dynasty leagues.

We saw plenty of intriguing promotions to the Double-A level as well with James Wood (WAS), Marcelo Mayer (BOS), Junior Caminero (TBR), and Carson Whisenhunt (SFG) all receiving the bump this past week. Both Wood and Caminero are top-10 overall prospects for me right now and Mayer not too far behind. As for their perceived value, Wood's is pretty much on par, but I still believe you can acquire Caminero for less than a top-10 prospect price tag and Mayer for less than a top-20 prospect price tag.

But the most underrated of the entire bunch is absolutely Carson Whisenhunt. He's been dominant this season with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 7.9% walk rate, and a 37.1% strikeout rate across 10 starts between Lo-A and Hi-A. He's a no-doubt top-100 overall prospect at this point and should be valued as such. But it doesn't appear that his price tag has jumped quite that high yet, making him a solid target in dynasty leagues.

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