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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Welcome back RotoBallers! Rickie Fowler won the Phoenix Open (-15) by two strokes over Brandon Grace. It was a roller-coaster of a final-round for Fowler. He blew a five-shot lead in ten minutes, but battled back and won. For a player that's struggled in the past closing tournaments, this win was enormous. He's struggled his entire career in final-rounds when he faces adversity and he surely did Sunday after a double and triple-bogey. He showed the mental-toughness that he will need to capture his first major this year.

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

Featured Promo: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The PGA Tour heads north again to Pebble Beach in Monterey County, CA, two hours south of San Francisco. This tournament will have a three course rotation; Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC, and Monterey Peninsula CC (shore course). There will be two rounds played at Pebble Beach and once at the latter two. Monterey is the easiest course, Pebble is average, and Spyglass the hardest.

Spyglass and Pebble are par-72's while Monterey is a par 71. All three courses play to under 7,000 yards and feature extremely small Poa Annua greens. It could get windy and chilly under and those conditions, can play like a links-style course. Hitting fairways are easy and the rough length is short.

Pebble Beach is also home to one of the most famous holes in the world, the par-3 7th.

Let's take a look at the stats of all three courses.

Stat Tour Average Pebble Beach GL Monterey Peninsula CC Spyglass Hill GC
Driving Distance 283 yds 268 yds -- --
Driving Accuracy 61% 71% 74% 63%
GIR Percentage 65% 62% 73% 62%
Scrambling Percentage 58% 58% 56% 60%
Three-Putt Percentage 56% 46% 99% 71%

 

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five years)
Jordan Spieth 50.73
Dustin Johnson 49.73
Jason Day 43.48
Jimmy Walker 42.92
Pat Perez 35.40

Past winners have been starting from last year; Ted Potter, Jordan Spieth, Vaughn Taylor, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Snedeker, Phil Mickelson, D.A. Points, and Dustin Johnson.

The average cut line the last seven years has been +0.14.

In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag, Dustin Johnson is the favorite at 5-1 followed by Jason Day, 8-1. The next three are Jordan Spieth, 20-1, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau, both 20-1.

I will not be using my custom stat model for a little while until there are more recent stats to use. I'm not going to base my model around eight rounds for players like Tiger and Fowler. However, I will be focusing on players who can approach-the-green well because the greens are so small, hit greens-in-regulation, and who scramble well if missing the green.

Another thing to note, with this being a Pro-Am, we will see many star athletes in other sports such as Aaron Rodgers, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kelly Slater among others.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Kuchar.

Johnson ($11,400) - This is such an extraordinary price for a player who hasn't played in the States since the first week of January. But while he's been playing on the European Tour, he finished T-16 three weeks ago and last week, won the Saudi Invitational. He does have great history here with four top-5's in his last five appearances. He also won in 2009 and 2010. You know I don't like taking the heavy favorite because it hinders putting together a team of six golfers.

Day ($10,900) - He's made all nine of his cuts at Pebble including three top-5's in his last four appearances and the other one was a T-11. He finished T-5 two weeks ago. Day is one of the best players around the green and I'd take him over DJ at this price 10 out of 10 times.

Finau ($10,600) - This price baffles me. He was cut last week and the week before that finished T-13. His sole appearance at this tourney was in 2017 where he finished T-23.

Fleetwood ($10,300) - This will be his tournament debut. He's played exceptionally well on the PGA Tour last year but he recently was playing on the spacious courses in the Middle East.

Kuchar ($10,000) - I love Kooch, but he's overpriced. He did play well last week in Phoenix finishing T-4, but he hasn't played well at Pebble. Kooch was cut in 2017 and last year finished T-62.

 

Middle-Priced DFS Players

Chez Reavie ($9,000) - He got off to a hot start last year and is doing the same thing this year. He kicked off the season T-3 at the Sony Open, followed that up with a T-28 at the Desert Classic and last week recorded a T-4 in Phoenix. Reavie was runner-up last year and also ranks 25th in strokes gained on California courses since 2014.

Brandon Grace ($8,900) - His low-ball flight will surely help him in Northern California. He's also coming in hot fresh off a runner-up in Phoenix. Last year at this tourney, he recorded a T-20.

Jason Kokrak ($8,500) - He's made three consecutive top-20's and four of his last five cuts here. Through the last 12 rounds, Kokrak is fourth in GIR's, seventh in approach, 10th in proximity, and 38th in scrambling. He's also 21st in strokes gained on California courses since 2014.

Pat Perez ($7,300) - He's been nothing short of awful to start 2019 with a missed cut, withdrawing, and another missed cut. But he took last week off and returns to a course he's played well at. He's fifth in total strokes gained at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the last five years.

Jimmy Walker ($7,100) - Walker is in a similar position as Perez except he's made two of three cuts, but his best finish was T-44 in Phoenix. His results here since 2014; win, T-21, T-11, T-51, and T-8.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Chris Stroud ($6,800) - He's made two of four cuts the past four years at Pebble and is fresh off a T-7 last week. While Stroud's struggled with GIR's gained the last three tourneys (112), he is fourth in putting and 12th in approach.

Adam Schenk ($6,500) - I can't believe I found this gem at this price. The bad news is he was cut here last year, but the good news is he's made three consecutive cuts improving upon each finish (T-67, T-57, and T-55 last week). As for the stats through the last 12 rounds, he's 12th in GIR's, 32nd in approach, and 75th in putting.

Derek Fathauer ($6,100) - Although he's only played once this year missing the cut at the Desert Classic, but he has made the cut at Pebble four consecutive years. So if you need salary relief, take a flier with him.

Best of luck RotoBallers and be sure to look out for my column previewing the Phoenix Open!

 

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.

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