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Daily Divide: Week Nine DFS picks


Daily Divide: Week Nine

Matt and Nathan each offer Week 9 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. Nathan probably makes more good points than Matt over the long haul though, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Matt: I’m really disappointed I haven’t earned the right to change the intro back.

You can follow the great Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff -- and the just okay Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle. Matt: This is embarrassing for me.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Nine

QB: Drew Brees vs Ten
Some may call playing a quarterback who threw 7 touchdowns last week point chasing. I call it playing a quarterback who is playing the best football he has played all season. The emergence of Ben Watson has been nice for Brees and now he faces a mediocre Titans defense in New Orleans. The Saints are the second biggest favorite of the weekend as 7.5 point favorites with an implied team total of 27. Brees provides both a high floor and ceiling and he provides some roster flexibility that Brady and his price do not.

Stacking: Willie Snead, Ben Watson and Brandin Cooks are stacking options with Brees, but I am opting to go with Brees by himself.

Matt: The fantasy community is way too quick to end careers. While he’s not priced as the elite QB he is yet, I’m down for a “naked Brees” as we call it. (Naked = non-stacked QB)

 

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs OAK and Darren McFadden vs PHI
While Matt is going expensive at running back (see below), I am going in the opposite direction with a pair of mid-low priced backs.

DeAngelo Williams was the RB1 in fantasy through two weeks before Le'Veon Bell came back from suspension. Now, Bell is out for the season and Williams is reasonably priced against a middle of the road defense at home. Whenever you can get a starting running back in the mid-low range in a high scoring offense with an implied team total of 26, that is something I like to take advantage of. I expect Williams price to be closer to the RB1 range as early as next week.

If you are looking to go even cheaper at running back, Darren McFadden is another solid option at home against the Eagles. McFadden is the clear #1 back in Dallas with little competition for carries, he has played well in the last few weeks with 16 or more PPR points in each of his last 3 games. I expect more of the same as the Cowboys will continue to establish the run to avoid putting the ball in Matt Cassel’s hands .

Matt: Both should have enough usage to offer a nice floor regardless of tough matchups.
WR: Demaryius Thomas at IND
Last week against the Packers, Demaryius Thomas had one of his best game of the season with 24.80 PPR points. Adam Harstad often talks about positive touchdown regression, Demaryius Thomas ranks 7th in the NFL in receiving yards but only has 1 touchdown on the season, which means he is a candidate for some positive touchdown regression this week. Denver has one of the highest implied totals of the weekend slate with 25, helping make Thomas a great option for a wide receiver that is priced just below the top tier of wide receivers.

Stacking:I would not be stacking Peyton and his old arm with Demaryius this weekend.

Matt: Short version: Love this one. Slightly longer version: Peyton hasn’t been supporting two top WRs every week much this year, and I think Emmanuel Sanders draws the slightly better matchup. That’s my only thought here, though, as DT is a stud and the touchdowns will come far sooner than later. (FWIW I like Peyton this weekend, especially with his depressed price.)

 

TE: Jordan Reed at NE

When Jordan Reed plays football, he scores fantasy points, it is that simple. He has scored more than 14 PPR points in 4 of 5 games played, including a 30.20 PPR point performance in week 7 before Washington’s bye week. With the week off and the fact that he played the week before, he should be good to go for this weekend. Also, the Washington passing game will likely see plenty of volume against the Patriots as they are the biggest underdog of the week at +14.

Stacking: Kirk Cousins will get the volume, but the risk of high turnovers make him a no-go in DFS this weekend.

Matt: Not a great matchup this weekend, but Reed is a weekly option whenever healthy...

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Nine

QB: Tom Brady vs WAS
How good has Tom Brady been? His very solid 312-3-1 line in Week Six was good for QB8 on the week, his worst weekly finish of the year. He has finished as a top five QB every other week he’s played, and has been a top three QB in four of his seven games. His per game average is over four points higher than the fantasy’s current QB2, and Vegas projects a massive Patriots team total of 33, a full touchdown higher than any other team this weekend. With his performance this year, the massive team total, facing a soft matchup against Washington (ranked 22nd in FootballOutsider’s DVOA against the pass), and plenty of value at every position, I may just pay up for one of the best fantasy assets of 2015.

Stacking: Take your pick. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski offer the highest floors for cash games. Brandon LaFell’s performance hasn’t caught up to his snap count yet, but may be worth a flier in GPPs in this one.

Nathan: I like some of the slightly cheaper quarterbacks almost as much, but he he is definitely a (very expensive) option.

 

RB: Devonta Freeman (at SFO) and Todd Gurley (at MIN) DET
Devonta Freeman: Since taking over the starter role in Week Three, Freeman’s lowest yardage total came in Week Seven when he combined for 130 yards. Freeman combined for 54 touches in the last two weeks, but hasn’t scored since Week Six. With his usage and performance, the touchdowns are coming. Atlanta is installed as a seven point favorite, and playing against one of the worst starting NFL QBs in recent years, Blaine Gabbert, this may be low. With San Francisco ranking 27th in DVOA against the run, Freeman may be my number one play this weekend (where his price isn’t prohibitive).

Todd Gurley: Really wanted to write that Gurley put up over 150 yards in four consecutive weeks, but his 146 yard effort this last weekend ruined that sentence for me. His opponent this weekend has allowed the fifth fewest points to RBs to date, but with four of their six games coming against bottom seven NFL rushing defenses, they haven’t had many real tests yet. It may be worth noting FootballOutsiders ranks the Vikings rush defense 26th in DVOA. I may take a prototypical cash game approach to my lineups this week, paying up for QB and RBs while finding value at WR and TE. I’ll be playing at least one of these two foundational backs in every lineup I make.

Nathan: It is hard to argue against the two best healthy backs in fantasy football. So I'm not going to. You can play either or both of these guys with confidence this weekend.

 

WR: Stevie Johnson vs CHI
With Keenan Allen out for the year, Stevie Johnson figures to step up into a prominent role in the Chargers offense. They play similar styles of games, and Johnson has been pretty good this year when healthy. The Bears have the 24th ranked DVOA, and as a Bears fan that feels generous. Even if he disappoints to expectations somewhat, Johnson’s pricing doesn’t reflect his projected usage this weekend whatsoever. I’m looking to play some studs and Johnson fills in nicely as a capsaver.

Stacking:Philip Rivers’ weapons are a little dinged up, but his great play this year has put him in weekly consideration.

Nathan: I love the Chargers offense every week, and I like Stevie Johnson a lot this week. I am mostly paying up at wide receiver this week, but Stevie is a great cap saver for those going heavy at running back.

 

TE: Charles Clay vs MIA
Over his last six games, Clay has three top six finishes, including his 5-82-1 line in Week Three versus his former team and current opponent. He does have two duds over that span, but one came in Week Five when the passing game deflated to the tune of ten completions for 109 yards. His other came in one of EJ Manuel’s two starts who is horrible, and Taylor figures to return this weekend. Teams without TE passing game threats (Jaguars, Jets, Texans) have been blanked versus Miami, but receiving TE’s have flourished, finishing no worse than TE6 (Jordan Reed, Charles Clay, Delanie Walker, and Gronk). Add in the #Revenge or #OldTeamTheorem narrative (take your pick) and Clay makes both a sensible and fun cheap play at TE.

Stacking: #NahWaveNope.

Nathan: That's a lot of adjectives. Charles Clay has quietly been one of the best tight ends in the NFL this season. I like this play.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Philip Rivers, Devonta Freeman, Jeremy Langford, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Antonio Gates.

Matt likes: Peyton Manning (where cheap), Jeremy Langford, Mark Ingram, Antonio Brown, Oakland WRs, Delanie Walker.

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