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Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 11


Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

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Undervalued Players - Week 11

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Cesar Hernandez - 2B, PHI

63% owned

With Andrew McCutchen unfortunately out for the rest of 2019, Cesar Hernandez inherits the leadoff spot in Philadelphia. Although Hernandez's walk rate is down this season, he is still an absolute threat there. Hitting leadoff in most batting orders would make even the most average baseball player fantasy viable.

Prior to this season, he was always a run-scoring machine. Now, with batters like Bryce Harper and Jean Segura behind him rather than Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco, he can thrive. Hernandez's power has jumped this season and could push him to the 20 home run mark for the first time ever. With the leadoff spot, he should also have more opportunities to steal. A ROS projection of 15 HR/15 steals is not unreasonable. Add him everywhere he's available (especially points leagues) while he's hitting at the one-spot. He could probably be traded for the cheap right now too. Throw a back-end starter to one of your league-mates for him.

 

Zach Plesac - SP, CLE

29% owned

The Cleveland Indians keep pumping out viable fantasy starters. With Carlos Carrasco out indefinitely, Plesac should have a rotation spot locked up until he proves unworthy. His time in the rotation was my biggest concern a week ago in regards to adding him, but now, I am all in. Plesac is relatively young at 24 years old and has a solid minor league career backing up his current performance in the majors.

Plesac has given up just four runs in 19 and a third and struck out a respectable 14 batters. He limits walks and home runs. Works with a solid four-pitch mix featuring a mid-90's fastball. Plesac gets outs. While regression should be expected in the coming weeks, Plesac will prove to be a respectable back-end starter in fantasy rotations going forward.

 

Brandon Belt - 1B, SF

14% owned

Brandon Belt has gone under the radar this season. Primarily because the Giants stink, but also because he has not been too healthy since 2017. Belt has missed 50 or more games each of the past two seasons and has struggled to match his hitting from 2015-2016. This season, the batting average is about the same, but his walks are up, strikeouts down, and power is peaking (possibly due to the juiced ball).

My expectation, given the Giants' struggles, is that Belt could be dealt at the deadline to a contender which would then skyrocket his value. Not only will he move into a better lineup, but leaving San Francisco benefits just about any hitter (just ask Hunter Pence). Belt in a lineup/ballpark like Milwaukee is a dream come true for his run and RBI production. Until then, he should provide solid value regardless. Belt is someone who should be owned in almost all OBP leagues.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 11

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.

 

Joe Musgrove - SP, PIT

43% owned

Joe Musgrove is an absolute miss for me. I disregarded the preseason injury and drafted him anyway. While his April proved quite fruitful, his May...was not. With an awesome eight-inning start this past week, he might still have some value in leagues. He should be sold, not dropped (for now). The strikeout rate is down, the walk rate is up, and hard contact is up. Your league-mates might still have interest in him based off name value, low WHIP and sub-four FIP.

The real peripherals are just ugly. The xFIP and SIERA are both in the mid-fours which indicate that he is just not pitching that well. Musgrove's fastball is valued as one of the worst in baseball, and this is likely due to the loss in velocity this season. Although a mile-and-a-half might not seem like a lot, it is killing him. Every Musgrove start going forward is a crapshoot until he can somehow get his velo back up. I want no part in rougher ballparks and against even above-average offenses.

 

Jay Bruce - OF, PHI

57% owned

Jay Bruce is going nuts in Philadelphia. Great news for anyone who picked him up because now is the time to SELL. Get Jay Bruce off of your fantasy teams.

"Why?" You may ask. Well...because he's Jay Bruce. He's 32. He is what he is. The ISO is ridiculously near .400 and he is striking out more than ever. Do not fall for this trap if you're considering buying. Will there be some value throughout the year in Philly? sure. He should get some play time and hit some more home runs. But the average will be awful and he will disappoint you more than he helps you. More likely than not, the days he produces are the days he'll be on your bench. If someone wants to trade you a closer or middling starter like Joey Lucchesi for him, take it ASAP. Bruce is not someone I want all season outside of 14-plus team leagues. He'll probably be on your waiver wire by late July, especially if Philly trades for another outfielder.

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