Bold Predictions for Week 13

December 4, 2021

Kev Mahserejian gives his bold predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season to give fantasy football managers something to consider when setting lineups.

Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like you-know-what at a wall with the hope of sticking.

These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seem likely but are not guaranteed.

Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!

George Kittle Sees 10+ Targets and Scores 20+ Points

With Deebo Samuel out of commission this weekend (and possibly next), George Kittle steps into a larger role in the receiving game. While his role should typically be large given his immense talent, the 49ers often utilize him as a blocker for their bread and butter – the run game.

Brandon Aiyuk is the logical successor to the WR1 role in SF, and while he will take over as such, Kittle should have more targets as the 49ers take on a Seahawks. Kittle is arguably the best of that bunch for SF, but given how dominant Deebo and the run game has been this year, his name has not been called much. Kittle has 49 targets in 8 games this year whereas he had 63 in 8 games last season.

Despite possessing fewer targets than last year, Kittle has the same number of red-zone looks which should only go up in Deebo's absence.

Byron Pringle Takes Command of WR2 Role in KC and Finds Endzone

By order of snap count, Pringle is already the WR2 in KC over the past 2 weeks. However, he only has seven targets in this span with a TD. While these numbers aren't terrible you would hope for more out of the most prolific passing offense in the league helmed by QB King Patrick Mahomes.

Pringle is not someone most expected to ascend in the depth chart like this but the production – or at least, efficiency – cannot be denied. 10.6 yards per target on 32 targets is nothing to scoff at. Pringle is essentially performing like the formerly coveted Mecole Hardman while Hardman performs like Demarcus Robinson (not a good thing).

While we shouldn't expect too much out of Pringle, he has excelled as a receiver and kick returner this season. Coming off of the bye, it is likely that he gets a deserved bit of targets his way to cement the role acquired of late.

Saquon Barkley Has Best Game of Season With Mike Glennon

This isn't the craziest thing with Mike Glennon at the helm. Immobile QBs are statistically more likely to check it down to RBs than mobile QBs like Daniel Jones by nature of their game. Barkley had the best season of his career (rookie year) with Eli Manning and has struggled mightily with Jones.

To be fair, Jones isn't much worse than penultimate season Eli Manning and Saquon's injuries have certainly come in the way of how he's performed. Nevertheless, the theory remains true and we should expect Glennon to make a good friend of his starting star RB. Miami's defense is fairly run-of-the-mill, so the matchup is not crazy and with Kenny Golladay back in action, New York has somewhat of a threat at WR defenses need to pay attention to.

Both Derek Carr and Taylor Heinicke Pass for 300+ Yards while Josh Jacobs and Antonio Gibson combine for 12+ targets

The first part isn't the BOLDEST prediction out there given that Carr leads the league in passing yards, but Heinicke only has one 300+ yard game all year (he's come close several times to his second). With this game's 49.5 over/under and near-equal implied team totals, we should expect somewhat of a shootout. Vegas ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass while Washington ranks 30th.

Both teams do rely heavily on running backs though they do utilize them as receivers heavily. WFT's J.D. McKissic (concussion) is out, but that's where Antonio Gibson can step up after his highest target game of the season (7). Jacobs's targets have spiked since Jon Gruden's dismissal as he is averaging 5 per game whereas that number was 3.3 in the weeks prior.

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