Announcing This Year's Fantasy Busts - The Bigger Picture

July 30, 2021

Pierre Camus discusses big-name busts to cut or trade before the second half stretch run in fantasy baseball.

The second half of the MLB season is about two weeks deep and the trade deadline brings a flurry of activity that will shake up rosters. Last week, I advised being proactive to prepare for prospects or under-the-radar players who may jump into the starting lineup or rotation. This week, let's get reactive.

While you eye prospects or part-time players who can help your fantasy team in the stretch run, I will direct your attention to the baggage you may be carrying on your team that is weighing you down. Certain players have been disappointing all season long but don't get dropped because of their draft capital, name value, and the ever-optimistic hope that they'll snap out of it and suddenly catch fire in August/September. That's a nice sentiment but it likely ain't gonna happen.

Thanks to some fine work by Nickalus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), I am able to look at the spreadsheet he created and tell you who have been the biggest busts based on return on investment, which is fantasy production compared to draft price. We discussed this on our recent wPC+ podcast for both hitter busts and pitcher busts we don't have confidence will bounce back in the second half. In this space, I'll identify more players and try not to rail as long on Cody Bellinger just because he and Cavan Biggio have devastated my Ottoneu team. *deep sigh

Rationale

Before diving into the players themselves, why I consider them "busts", and why they won't bounce back, the obvious caveat applies that league settings matter. A player that might be on the chopping block in a 12-team league might not be worth dropping in a 14-team league. There's almost no way you'd drop Cody Bellinger in a keeper league unless he came with hefty salary considerations in a salary cap league like Ottoneu (*deeper sigh). If you have enough bench space and can afford to stash and wait on these guys, by all means do it. Every situation is unique, so feel free to hop into our MLB Chat for advice or ask away on Twitter @RotoBallerMLB or @Roto_Chef.

Swings and Misses - Hitter Busts

Cody Bellinger, L.A. Dodgers

I'm beyond done with Bellinger. Detach the name value and memories of 2019 (or the championship from 2020 if that matters) and you have an absolute train wreck of a batting profile that has no place on fantasy rosters. Bellinger's xBA in .204, his HardHit% is league-average, and the few times he has reached base, he's not stealing to make up for it with just two SB. He is getting massacred by anything up in the zone and continues to chase terrible pitches.

Advice: You are under no obligation to keep Bellinger on your roster simply because he cost a first or second-round pick. He has been lost at the plate all season and hasn't shown signs of getting better, slashing .108/.185/.217 in July amidst hamstring issues. If anything, the addition of Trea Turner and return of Mookie Betts just moves him down further in the lineup. Cut bait and don't look back.

Luke Voit, New York Yankees

Voit has been on the injury list much of the season but was just mediocre to start the season, batting .241 with three homers in 108 at-bats. In 2020, he went deep 22 times in 213 at-bats, a pace that was obviously not sustainable for another season. The late-blooming breakout is always a nice story but the reality is we have a 30-year-old with a short track record of success based solely on power with injury concerns on the trade block. You know what to do.

Advice: If you have Voit on your roster, try to trade him this very minute before he enters a platoon or gets dealt to a less favorable situation.

Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

Biggio's pedigree and place in a stacked Jays lineup were supposed to make him a 20/20 threat with a ton of runs scored, especially if he were to bat first or second in the lineup. None of that has happened and those who spent an early draft pick on him have been left with a .221 average and .682 OPS over 74 games. A whopping three steals coupled with seven home runs has done nothing to offset the lowly average.

Advice: He's an obvious hold in dynasty and keeper leagues but not worth the trouble in redraft leagues. Again, don't look at where you drafted him but where his stats lie among all batters.

Michael Conforto, New York Mets

We knew negative regression was coming in the batting average category but not that it would swing to the other end of the pendulum. A career .254 hitter, he hit .322 last year but is down to .203 this year. It hasn't come as a tradeoff for power either, as he has just six homers on the year. His .252 xBA suggests he should be doing better but this begs the question: how much good does a .250 outfielder do for you if he's not hitting for power?

Advice: Sometimes a player continuing to get regular at-bats on a contending team is worse for his fantasy value because the batting average drain continues. We don't know when Francisco Lindor will return and it's not as if this offense has been lights out anyway. He can be dropped outright.

Victor Robles, Washington Nationals

Many talented players had a down 2020 season so the fantasy community collectively kept the faith on Robles. His ADP was inside the top 120 and ATC placed him as the 97th-ranked hitter. Needless to say, he's failed to live up to expectations on both fronts as the 287th-ranked hitter this season. He's batting .203 and that power-speed upside has resulted in one homer and eight steals.

Advice: Don't draft him in the first place. Too late? Drop him in May when it's obvious he's not replicating 2019 again. Still too late? Cut your already massive losses and put him on your do not draft list for 2021. I can't advise keeping faith in him although I do know a very smart baseball person who has a different opinion so I could be way off here.

I would have to imagine that Victor Robles is now more valuable in fantasy baseball nowt that the Nationals are in tear-down mode.

He could bat higher up in the order, and attempt more stolen bases.

— Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY) July 30, 2021

Juuuust a Bit Outside - SP Busts

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

If you watch our video discussion of Snell, you'll hear confirmation of what may be obvious - walks are a big problem this year for him. His 14.3% BB% has led to an unsightly 1.61 WHIP that is a roto killer. The 5.44 ERA is just as bad and a 5.56 xERA and 4.59 SIERA confirm that he deserves what he's getting.

What's the problem with Blake Snell?

Command.

Besides the notable high walk rate, the problem is the fastball. The picture on the right is 2020 and the one on the left is 2021.

1/3 pic.twitter.com/jmt1G5fUIU

— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) July 29, 2021

Sure, you're getting Ks but at what cost? The final straw is the fact he's only gone over four innings in two of his last seven starts and will probably be preserved for the postseason in the hopes he can resemble playoff Snell from the past two seasons.

Advice: Here is a pitcher that doesn't absolutely need to be dropped if you're already behind on ERA/WHIP because he's at least providing strikeouts at a nice clip and has the chance to earn wins due to run support, even though he only has four on the season. You'll need to keep offsetting his bloated ratios with some middle relievers.

Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians

Those still holding onto Plesac at this point have either stopped paying attention or are stuck in 2020. Sounds silly but he's still 83% rostered across Yahoo leagues. Plesac has a disappointing but adequate 4.26 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Not a killer but not helping you much either. But his 52 K in 82 1/3 innings leaves a lot to be desired and it's not as if he's making up for it with six wins. With the state of Cleveland's team, he might be lucky to win more than two games the rest of the way.

Advice: Plesac still has a great slide-piece but it's not enough alone when his four-seamer is hit at a .316 clip and his changeup has become more hittable. He brings nothing of value to the table currently, so drop away.

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

While you might be excused for hanging onto Plesac (above) based on his recent success but there's simply no reason for Corbin to be on anything but the deepest of bad NL-only rosters. He had already been declining for three years and keeps getting worse. His xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and xERA are all below the 10th percentile and his K% has plummeted since his career-best 2018 season.

Advice: There's nothing to think about here. Corbin's days of being valuable in fantasy leagues ended two seasons ago.

Don't Stop Believing

There are a few players that I'm willing to hang onto based on the fact they have been underachieving relative to Statcast metrics. Some pitchers have a sizeable SIERA-ERA or xBA-BA gap and could start to regress positively.

Anthony Rizzo - There's an easy reason to believe Rizzo might bounce back in the second half. His new digs are more power-friendly, his lineup will be better, and a change of scenery might infuse new life into the veteran. His Statcast profile is fairly solid, especially in terms of exit velocity. He should be started with confidence going forward.

Jorge Soler - Sure enough, days after identifying Soler as an underachiever in xHR and the first of his two-homer games, he does it again. Read that piece for a full explanation that ends with "...maybe he will go on a power binge after all."

Sonny Gray - His 3.41 xFIP is a full run below his ERA and his 31.1% CSW% is 16th-highest among starting pitchers. It's hard to keep those numbers down at GABP but Gray is a reliable arm that could finish strong.

Max Fried - The strikeout numbers are still solid at just over a K per inning, he's got a 3.42 ERA since May 1, and isn't hurting your team as much as others mentioned above.

Triston McKenzie - Yeah but those strikeouts... I realize McKenzie has been a roller-coaster all year and the ratios aren't good. He either gives up five runs or none at all. He can be streamed in favorable matchups and will pile up Ks even if he's off.

Chris Paddack - He's got a huge difference between his 3.92 SIERA and 5.13 ERA and is posting a strong 28% CSW%. The innings may be limited but with the Padres missing out on Max Scherzer they'll have to rely on Paddack even more down the stretch.

Jesus Luzardo - I broke down the recent trade to Miami and why it may work wonders for Luzardo. It may not be this year but it's possible...

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