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Kyle Lindemann identifies top fantasy football best ball value picks as well as sleepers at QB for 2023 fantasy drafts. Which quarterbacks are best ball sleepers?
The 2022 fantasy season was a difficult one for several highly-drafted quarterbacks. Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott all missed significant portions of the year while others like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa battled injuries down the stretch during the fantasy playoffs. What's become clear is the larger divide between the elite quarterbacks and the rest of the field than ever before.
Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen all averaged 24 or more fantasy points per game (FPPG) and have officially established an upper-elite tier of quarterbacks. Joe Burrow finished with 21.7 FPPG, but all of the rest were between 15-20 FPPG. While it might not seem like a lot, the 6+ point advantage for Burrow over a middle-of-the-road QB every week adds up over time and especially during the Week 17 playoffs.
While having an elite quarterback will leave you better served at advancing through the Underdog playoffs in Weeks 15-17, we must diversify our portfolios and avoid taking a quarterback until round three. Why is this the best strategy? Let's take a look! Average Draft Position based on Underdog ADP from August 9, 2023, to August 16, 2023.
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Best Ball Fantasy Football Quarterback Drafting Strategy
There is always a cause and effect, even in the fantasy football landscape. The rise of the mega elite QB has caused several quarterbacks to rise into the back of round two in 2023 fantasy Best Ball drafts. Is this to say you shouldn't draft a QB at all in round two?
In Best Ball tournaments you are going to need some exposure to Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, but the opportunity cost of drafting any of these QBs in round 2 is a heavy one! If one of them should make it to you in round three that is another story, but in round two you are likely giving up too much for the bet to pay off. You can counter this by drafting an elite RB or WR instead.
If we aren't getting one of the early elite QBs then our game plan should be to finish with a 3QB / triple-stack build with three different chances of hitting the nuts in Week 17. Why do I say this? If you're going against one of the elite QBs in the fantasy playoffs you've got a much better chance of taking one down if you've got three chances instead of two. By taking your 3rd QB in rounds 17-18, you have a much better chance at not drawing a dead roster spot on an RB or WR who might get cut.
Quarterback Best Ball Fantasy Football Targets
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
QB5, 46.8 ADP
After being stuck in one of the worst situations for a quarterback imaginable, Justin Fields was finally thrown a lifeline when the Bears traded for the talented D.J. Moore and drafted tackle Darnell Wright in the 1st Round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
While he still needs to continue developing as a passer, Fields was electric on the ground last year for fantasy purposes as he rushed for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns! This was the second-highest rushing total from a quarterback in a single season in NFL history. Fields had two-straight QB1 finishes in Weeks 9-10, and nine top 10 finishes in his last ten games before being shut down at the end of the year as the Bears were way out of the playoff race.
Fields is going about one round after Lamar Jackson and is a potential elite pairing with WR D.J. Moore. He is also a nice bring-back in Week 17 with TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, or RB Bijan Robinson when the Bears play the Falcons.
Fields has been sacked an outrageous 91 times in the last two years. His offensive line hasn't been good, to say the least, but he also needs to learn to get rid of the ball quicker and avoid negative plays. While there is concern the Bears won't pass enough this season, they also don't want their quarterback getting hurt too much either.
Fields throwing for more yards and TDs in 2023 will offset his fantasy value if the rushing declines. While it might be unreasonable to expect 1,143 yards rushing again, 800+ feels like the bare minimum in 2023. Fields' potential upside is just as high as all the other quarterbacks and he isn't costing us anywhere near as much premium draft capital.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
QB8, 64.9 ADP
After being the most highly-touted prospect to hit the NFL since Andrew Luck in 2012, Trevor Lawrence finally showed us why the scouts were so high on him last year. With the Urban Meyer debacle behind him from 2021, Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards on top of 25 passing TDs to just 8 INTs. He also added a nice 291 yards rushing on the ground with 5 scores.
The Jaguars traded for WR Calvin Ridley last season and re-signed TE Evan Engram. Add in wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones with running backs Travis Etienne and rookie Tank Bigsby, this offense is loaded! With Lawrence in year two of Doug Pederson's system, it feels like he could still get a lot better as a quarterback.
Lawrence started slow in four of the first five games but ended up with seven top eight QB finishes on the season. He's got a decent enough rushing floor as well. While this might not seem significant, it gave him an extra 3.5 FPPG in 2022. When we are looking for top ceiling finishes, having a QB with the ability to pick up yards with his legs adds an extra dimension to score points. It feels like there's a pretty big drop-off in the QB tiers after Lawrence.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
QB10, 92.7 ADP
After having two disappointing seasons to start his career, Tua Tagovailoa showed who he was in 2022 and took a massive leap forward! He averaged 8.9 yards per attempt in 2022, which was the best in the NFL. Tagovailoa was 259 of 400 for 3,548 yards, 25 TDs, and 8 INTs in 13 games. He, unfortunately, had several concussions during the season and wasn't able to finish. With another year in Mike McDaniel's system, he should be better as long as he has wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to.
He is an affordable quarterback to stack if you have either Hill or Waddle. The Dolphins have a potentially exciting Week 17 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. For what it's worth, Tagovailoa ranked fifth in PFF's passer grade and third in average depth of target (aDOT).
With both of his dynamic wide receivers, there is a chance of a long touchdown on any given play. If you don't end up with one of the top quarterbacks then Tagovailoa is a great addition in the middle rounds, which allows you to load up all the other positions instead.
Quarterback Best Ball Fantasy Football Sleepers
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
QB15, 116.3 ADP
It is rather befuddling that Daniel Jones is going this late. After being left for dead in his first three years in New York, Jones finally showed last season why he was deserving of the number six overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. With a new Head Coach in Brian Daboll, Jones threw for 3,205 yards and 15 TDs.
Where he was most effective was on the ground where he rushed for 708 yards and 7 TDs. The Giants added TE Darren Waller in the offseason and the two could be a potent stack in Best Ball for 2023. With another year in Daboll's system, Jones still has a higher ceiling to get to as a passer and inevitably has some positive TD regression coming his way.
While the Giants seemingly added a handful of slot receivers in the offseason, RB Saquon Barkley is back to give Jones another massive weapon alongside Waller. At this juncture, we still don't know who their WR1 will be, but it's hard not to think there is still upside with Jones and the Giants offense.
He may not run as much in 2022, but if he develops more as a passer that is likely a good thing. The Giants can get out of Jones' contract pretty easily after 2024, but for the next two years, they are committed to seeing him succeed.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
QB23, 167.0 ADP
While he has risen up draft boards considerably in the last month and isn't the same value he might have been in May or June, it's pretty clear that Kyle Shanahan wants Brock Purdy to be the guy for the 49ers this year. Purdy finished as the QB14 or better in five of his six starts.
While this might not seem great for 1QB leagues, he can be a great addition in late 3QB builds, as well as in Superflex leagues. Purdy did have a QB5, QB8, and QB9 finish as well. He is easy to stack with four of the 49ers' skill players, as well as being correlated with the Commanders in Week 17.
While he doesn't have the same rushing upside as Trey Lance, it feels nearly impossible for Purdy to fail in a Kyle Shanahan system when he is surrounded by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.
If that isn't the most impressive array of skill players across the NFL I'm not sure what is. While it has been mentioned earlier that it could be tough to compete with the elite QBs of the world in the fantasy playoffs, having a 3QB roster build with three possible stacks gives us three potential outs to counter it.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
QB26, 194.0 ADP
Sam Howell was just named the starter on Friday, August 18, so his stock could rise. Nonetheless, he has two solid pass catchers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Week 17 matchup against the 49ers' defense is less than ideal, but Howell appears to be in a great spot despite falling into the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. With Eric Bieniemy coming over from Kansas City to be their new OC, many are expecting big things from this offense but it is one that Howell is going to need to hit the ground running with relatively quickly.
Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett is waiting in the wings behind Howell, so his seat could get warm in a hurry. What's interesting about Howell's fantasy ceiling is that he was a fantastic improviser in college in North Carolina. In his final 2021 season after losing several key players to the NFL Draft, Howell took it upon himself to get the offense moving where he rushed for 828 yards and 11 TDs! While he isn't at the same level of athlete as Anthony Richardson, he isn't afraid to move the chains with his legs.
Was there anyone you felt was left off this list? Feel free to get at me on Twitter and best of luck in fantasy football this season!
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