Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 17 Outlooks for Jayden Daniels, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, and More

December 24, 2024

Kyle's fantasy football sleepers for Week 17 of 2024 based on backfield touches, target shares, and more. Who are the key fantasy football risers and fallers?

Jayden Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year

If you were born in the better part of the 1980s like me, you're old enough to remember when Washington was one of the most outstanding franchises in the National Football League.

When Joe Gibbs was the head coach in Washington, the team made the playoffs eight times in 12 years and won three Super Bowls. What's even more incredible is that Gibbs did it with three different starting quarterbacks.

This angle of Jayden Daniels game-winning TD to Jamison Crowder is just beautiful. #Commanders pic.twitter.com/0US4gmSpZ7

— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) December 23, 2024

After Dan Snyder bought the team in 1999, the franchise did a complete tailspin, and the fanbase suffered for a very long time. Now that Josh Harris and his new ownership group are in town, it's pretty clear how important of a change that was at the top, and the franchise seemingly changed their entire fortunes around by drafting quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

On Sunday, Daniels was electric. He was 24 of 39 passing for 258 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran the ball nine times for 81 yards and finished with 36.4 fantasy points. He led the Commanders down the field in the game's final minutes and hit wide receiver Jamison Crowder for a touchdown with very little time remaining; it was almost poetic.

Daniels has all but shored up the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and was fantastic for fantasy as a rookie, with six finishes in the Top 5. To say that he is probably the 1.01 in Dynasty Superflex drafts this offseason is probably an understatement, too. Outside of that several-game stretch when Daniels was banged up with a rib injury, he has been a godsend for fantasy as well.

The Washington fan base is reenergized like never before, and for good reason. Josh Harris, take a bow. You deserve it. Washington football is so back!

Wide Receiver Metrics You Need to Know Heading into Week 17

These were the wide receivers and tight ends with the highest target shares from Week 16. Because of longer load times and frame rates on mobile phones, all the important data points you need are below via my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Week 16 Leaderboards: Top 40 WR (PPR)

Stats shown:

PPR Fantasy Points
FPTS/Target
FPTS/Route
Snap Share
Routes Run
Route%
Targets
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
Target Share

*Snaps/routes data courtesy of @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/cZl7Qgi2qH

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) December 24, 2024

Justin Jefferson, stand up. The wily veteran saved one of his best games for last on Sunday, seeing 13 targets to finish with 10 receptions for 144 yards and two touchdowns. The Minnesota Vikings sit at 13-2 on the season and have a real chance to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Talk about a real turn of events.

Justin Jefferson tonight:

10 catches
144 yards
2 TDpic.twitter.com/rcfPgsSVnR

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 22, 2024

Who needs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers when there's Brian Thomas Jr.? The Jacksonville Jaguars rookie wide receiver had nine receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown on Sunday and continues his impressive inaugural season. He's doing all of this with Mac Jones at quarterback, so imagine what might happen once Trevor Lawrence is healthy again in 2025.

Keenan Allen had an impressive game in Week 16 as well, hauling in 10 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears lost pretty convincingly to the Lions, but it was nice to see Allen get going again. He'll be a free agent into the offseason, so it'll be interesting to see where he ends up next season.

What RBs Saw Bell-Cow Usage in Week 16?

Here are the backs who played at least 60 percent of their team's offensive snaps in Week 16.

After an up-and-down 2024 season, Jonathan Taylor saved his best for when it counts in Week 16. He rushed 29 times for 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans without catching a single pass. The Colts offense has been inconsistent this season while quarterback Anthony Richardson is still learning the position, but it was nice to see.

Jonathan Taylor today:

29 Carries
218 Yards
3 Touchdowns (!!!)

First RB in six seasons with 200/3 in a game. pic.twitter.com/e7o7prTRVk

— StatMuse (@statmuse) December 22, 2024

Indianapolis and Taylor have a juicy matchup against the New York Giants in Week 17 and he is looking like a league-winner at this stage.

Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard continues his impressive hot streak. Carolina beat the Arizona Cardinals in overtime, and the former running back from Oklahoma State rushed 25 times for 152 yards and two touchdowns on top of catching four passes for 13 yards. With rookie running back Jonathon Brooks sidelined indefinitely, Hubbard continues to see bell-cow usage.

The Panthers offense under new head coach Dave Canales has looked a lot better in the second half of the season, and quarterback Bryce Young is finally starting to show flashes of the potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Carolina still has a lot of work to do, but it's nice to see them staying competitive every Sunday of late.

On the season, Hubbard has rushed 225 times for 1,043 yards (4.6 YPC) while catching 39 passes for 158 yards and has combined for nine touchdowns.

Does Saquon Barkley deserve the NFL MVP? Despite the loss to the Commanders, Barkley was most of the Eagles offense on Sunday after quarterback Jalen Hurts left the game with a concussion early on and never returned. Barkley rushed 29 times for 150 yards and two touchdowns while scoring 27.0 fantasy points in half-PPR formats.

Right now, Barkley has 1,838 rushing yards on the season and needs 268 rushing yards to pass Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 rushing yards set in 1984 with the Los Angeles Rams.

It's going to be a photo finish, but it begs an important question. Has the NFL MVP Award become too biased toward quarterbacks? The last time a non-quarterback won the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012.

The only thing working against Barkley right now is the fact that the Eagles lost on Sunday and are now one game back of the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the win column.

If the Eagles aren't able to secure a first-round bye and already have the No. 2 seed in the NFC locked up before heading into Week 18, there's a likely scenario where Barkley is shut down for the sake of rest and is unable to go for the record.

The Latest Injury Updates for Week 17

Staying up with all the latest injury news and timelines as we head into the final week of the fantasy playoffs is still important. Below are all the latest injury updates from Deepak Chona. His advice and expertise are some of the best out there and help you manage expectations as you set your lineups for the final time in 2024.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Texans Tank Dell - Dislocated kneecap. Suspect additional ligaments (ACL/MCL) also. If so, avg return ~15 months. Lean towards missing '25 season#Eagles Jalen Hurts - Concussion. ~60% of players miss 1 wk and return the following. No dip upon return

1/4

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) December 23, 2024

Conclusion

This will be the final airing of my weekly column in 2024. I'd like to personally thank all of you who tuned in all year. It's been a fantastic ride, and I also hope you enjoy the holidays with your family and friends as we head into the New Year.

Week 17 is going to be an absolute marathon with the games spread out, but here's to hoping that one week from now, you will be celebrating a victory.

Best of luck during the championship, and don't forget to give me a follow on X. The regular season might be coming to a close, but stay tuned here at RotoBaller for plenty of Dynasty and NFL Draft content all offseason long.

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