RADIO
Quincy Milton takes a deep dive into Vikings RB Aaron Jones' fantasy football value to determine if you should be in or out on him in 2024 fantasy drafts this summer.
Former Green Bay Packers and current Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones has been a solid-to-elite fantasy football asset for several years. Jones has had unbelievable boom games for the Packers that can frustrate opposing fantasy managers.
The Packers decided to move on from Jones this offseason, and he signed with Green Bay's NFC North rival Vikings on a one-year, $7 million contract. Jones should step into a starting role, but the question is whether an RB1-type finish is within the cards in 2024.
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The Bad - Consistent Decline With Age
Jones is heading into his age-30 season, where running backs tend to begin their decline in both fantasy and real-life production by the time they are 27 or 28. Since 2019, Jones has finished as the RB2, RB5, RB10, RB9, and RB37 in each subsequent year. He has finished as a top-10 back four times over the past five seasons, but the consistent decline and alarming drop-off in 2023 is cause for concern.
While Jones only played in 11 games in 2023, the decline in total fantasy finish has not all been due to injury. Jones' total touchdowns have declined every season in that same span, going from 19 to 11, 10, seven, and three touchdowns. Jones has not seen extraordinary volume throughout his career, but enough running back touches will eventually catch up with you.
The Good - The Efficiency Remains
Jones has never been a high-volume player in Green Bay's multi-headed rushing attack. However, he has been consistently efficient with his touches. Jones' rushing average has varied between 4.6 and 5.5 yards per carry throughout his whole career. Likewise, he has generally averaged between 6.7 and 7.9 yards per reception. Jones' two outlier seasons in that department came when he averaged 2.4 yards per reception on low receiving volume during his rookie year and 9.7 yards per reception during his breakout 2019 campaign.
Jones figures to inherit a similar role in Minnesota, especially with second-year back Ty Chandler poised to receive some work. If Jones receives 200-250 touches in 2024, then he will be in prime position to produce 1,200 or more total yards.
Per @Alec_Lewis, #Vikings RB1 Aaron Jones looks “motivated and hungry to stick it” to the #Packers 👀
Lewis also noted RB2 Ty Chandler is “a locker room favorite.” The players think he can be great and having Jones as a mentor “is a hugely positive factor.” pic.twitter.com/d2hDOmhI2T
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) June 18, 2024
The Bad - What is the Vikings Offense?
Jones is stepping into an offense that was electric with Kirk Cousins, but will either be quarterbacked by Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy in 2024. We all know what Darnold is as a player. While McCarthy could (and should) be a good NFL quarterback, he is still a rookie and will experience growing pains in this offense should he have the opportunity to play in 2024.
Luckily for the Vikings quarterbacks in 2024, there are already plenty of weapons in place like wide receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson, who is coming off a torn ACL. The Vikings also have a very good defense, which should allow them to stay in games and remain balanced offensively. Lastly, the Vikings have a good offensive line, which should take pressure off the quarterback and allow the Vikings to run the ball.
If Darnold can capitalize on the opportunity in front of him or McCarthy turns out to be the real deal early on, then this offense may not struggle the way that some believe it might.
AARON JONES! 53 YARDS!
📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yDUx5ZutVa pic.twitter.com/WZg1zrGVdD— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
The Good - Draft Cost
Jones is being drafted as the RB18 in the fifth-to-seventh-round range depending on your league size. He is being drafted as a low-end RB2, which is probably about what you will want out of him for your team. Other running backs drafted in that range include Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Jones demonstrated in 2023 that when healthy, he is still far more explosive than any of those players.
If you miss on some of the running backs being drafted in the RB10-to-RB17 range, then Jones would be a very good option at his draft-day cost.
6 Under the Radar Players to Target in Your Fantasy Football Draft
-Aaron Jones
-Kirk Cousins
-Chase Brown 👀
-Curtis Samuel
-Rome Odunze
-Javonte WilliamsWhich of these players is your favorite pick?pic.twitter.com/5Nng56FYci
— Moody (@EricNMoody) June 20, 2024
Are You In or Out?
Age, Jones' recent injury history, and a decline in fantasy production scream that we should avoid Jones in fantasy for 2024. However, Jones may have a sneaky good fantasy season. He is going to a Vikings offense with an excellent play-caller in head coach Kevin O'Connell. While this offense may not be elite, it should improve throughout the season.
Jones will not be the player you want to anchor your team like in past years. Fantasy managers love to avoid aging running backs, and rightfully so. However, you are drafting this player to be a low-end RB2 or a potential flex option. He will certainly provide that level of value when healthy.
There would be heightened concerns if we saw the efficiency decline like other recent aging running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott. Jones displayed that he still has juice in 2023. The Vikings will likely use Ty Chandler often to ensure that Jones stays healthy. If this team turns out to be competitive in most games, then Jones will have a solid chance to be productive for one more year. If you enter his draft range with one or no running backs on your roster, then do not be afraid to look Jones' way.
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