Buy and Sell These Starting Pitching of The First Half

Don't Be Afraid To Go All In!

The All Star Break is behind us and I think most baseball fans will agree that this season will go down in baseball lore as the year of the torn UCL. Tommy John surgery has ended the seasons of several fantasy superstars and there could be more on the way.

As we begin the second half of the baseball season you, the fantasy baseball owner, need to go all in and make your move now! As we like to say here at RotoBaller, flags fly forever. If you have a chance to win it this year, go for it any way possible. I’ve always been a believer that before you can truly know where you should be going you need to reflect and learn from where you’ve already been.

Let’s examine the world of starting pitching to see who has given you the most value thus far. These are the pitchers that you drafted late or were waiver wire pickups and came out of nowhere and are pitching "lights out." On the other hand we also need to look at the pitchers who are primed for a bit of a fall in the second half and who you should consider selling while the going is good.

Valuable Fantasy Baseball Buys 

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels

No one drafted Garret Richards in my league. He frequently appeared on the list of most added waiver wire pickups but foolishly I sat idly by and watched as he got picked up and then dropped and then picked up again. I didn’t believe in him and I sure should have.

This guy crept up on all of us and entered the all star break with an 11-2 won/loss record, 2.55 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Richards spent the first half getting better and better and entered the All Star Break with eight straight starts where he gave up three runs or less. He seems like the real deal with his 11.3% swinging strike rate, .196 batting average against and microscopic .29 HR/9 rate. If only I could turn back time I wouldn’t have let “that girl” slip through my fingers and….oh yeah, Garret Richards would be on my fantasy roster.

Scott Kazmir, Oakland A’s

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – you can’t talk about starting pitching without having the green and gold in the conversation. Out of the tree of life Oakland GM Billy Beane just picked himself another plum ( plums are good right? – that’s a Sinatra reference from the song “The Best Is Yet To Come”). I featured Kazmir in one of my earlier columns as a buy low candidate and his 11-3 record, 2.38 ERA and his 0.98 WHIP are sure making me look good.

He has definitely benefited from his eight starts in the pitcher friendly Oakland confines. At home his ERA is a sparkling 1.57. His away ERA is a bit higher but still very good at 3.15. He has dropped his LD% (and remember line drives tend to drop in for hits) to 16.3%, down from 23.1% last season. He is also doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park posting a HR/9 rate of 8.5%, his lowest rate since 2009. It’s not too late to trade for him since career wise Kazmir gets stronger as the season winds down. His career second half ERA is 3.41 compared to his career first half ERA of 4.39. The only problem with trading for Kazmir now is that he is no longer a bargain. Unfortunately you’ll have to pay full price for him.

Jeff Samardzija, Oakland A’s

Usually when a pitcher moves to the AL from the NL you would expect that pitcher to have a drop off in performance. If you’re Jeff Samardzija and the team that you got traded to plays its home games at the pitcher friendly O.co Coliseum that shouldn’t be a concern. Prior to the start of this season Fantasy Baseball Owners didn’t have much faith in Samardzija and his ADP  was 170.33. He always had the ability to help his owners out with K’s, averaging over a strikeout per inning for his career but his ERA which sat at 4.34 at the end of last year, had risen in each of the last three seasons.

If you drafted Samardzija, you didn’t really expect much from him, but you certainly look like a genius now! Although he was having a career year with the Cubs and had a 2.83 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, he was only able to ring up two wins while pitching for the last place Cubs. Samardzija has already picked up his first win and should get many more while pitching for the first place A’s. Samardzija was also featured in a previous column as a buy low candidate and if you drafted or traded for him sit back and relax, because” the best is yet to come.” (That’s kind of another Sinatra reference – the best is yet to come is the same song that had the lyric about the plum that I was talking about earlier)

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

His first half numbers were stupendous: 12-4 record, 2.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He was everything the Yanks had hoped he would be when they gave him a boatload of money this past offseason. He didn’t have to overpower hitters. He simply masterfully mixed his low 90’s fastball with his big slider along with his split finger fastball in order to record a 13.7% swinging strike rate. (anything over 8.5% is considered very good for a starting pitcher). His ADP was pretty much right smack in the middle of the average draft this season and he certainly gave Fantasy Baseball Owners more value than that.

Sell These Fantasy Baseball Players Already!

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Why? Kluber has had a tendency for breaking out of the gate with a great start in the first half but then he just falls apart as the season progresses. Kluber’s career first half numbers are excellent. He has a .593 winning percentage, 3.38 ERA and 1.218 WHIP. His second half numbers are not nearly as good. His winning percentage dips to .545 which is still OK, but his ERA and WHIP jump to 4.66 and 1.43 respectively. Even his K/9 rate dips to 7.6 as opposed to a 9.4 rate in the first half. Don’t get caught sleeping at the wheel. Move Kluber now and you’ll thank me later!

Jesse Chavez, Oakland A’s

Jesse Chavez is on pace to pitch 199 innings this season. He has never pitched more than 67 innings in his professional career. Up until May 5^th Chavez’s ERA was sitting pretty at 1.89. As we begin the second half of the season his ERA stands at 3.14. His ERA is now standing because it’s trying to get your attention!

I don’t see any way that Chavez can remain in the A’s starting rotation for the long haul. We’ve already had this conversation when I featured him as a sell high candidate in a past column so what the heck are you waiting for? Try to find a naïve Fantasy Baseball Owner who’ll take this guy off of your hands!