Winners and Losers of 2024 NFL Free Agency (Teams)

March 18, 2024

Kyle looks at the first week of 2024 NFL free agency and which teams improved the most, which teams regressed the most, and how they might impact the fantasy football landscapes heading into the 2024 season.

Well, strap in, folks, because the first week of 2024 NFL free agency was a roller coaster ride. Some teams made power moves while others seemingly snoozed at the switch. The Houston Texans, for instance, came out swinging, pulling off some of the savviest deals that could very well tilt the scales in their favor this upcoming season. They sent a clear message: they're in it to win it. Houston's moves have not only reshaped its destiny but also stirred the pot in the fantasy football world, offering new dynamics and potential breakout stars for the 2024 season.

On the flip side, the Jacksonville Jaguars seemed to fumble their opportunity to capitalize on the free-agency frenzy. Instead of making headline-worthy enhancements, they let key opportunities slip through their fingers, leaving fans and fantasy managers alike scratching their heads. The Jaguars' lackluster performance in the free-agency market might just have set them on a backfoot, especially in a division where rivals are stepping up their game.

As we bask in the aftermath of a whirlwind free-agency week, it's crucial to remember that the chess game of NFL team building is far from over. With the NFL Draft looming in April, the landscape can shift dramatically. For fantasy football aficionados, these developments are a goldmine of insights, helping to sketch early blueprints of who to target or avoid. The draft could very well be the wild card that reshapes our expectations, turning today's underdogs into tomorrow's fantasy stalwarts or vice versa. Stay tuned, because if the free-agency week was any indication, we're in for a riveting prelude to the 2024 NFL saga!

NFL Free Agency Winners

Minnesota Vikings

I know what you're thinking: the Vikings lost their starting quarterback and top edge-rusher (who accounted for 16.5 sacks) last year, and you're saying that Minnesota is a winner? Robert Mays of The Athletic is fond of saying every offseason that we should have a great deal of respect for the teams who know who they are and act accordingly.

Minnesota had been to the playoffs twice in six seasons under Kirk Cousins with just one playoff win. Given that he's 35 years old and coming off a major Achilles injury, it's understandable why the Vikings are moving on even if they're embracing unknown territory under center (despite bringing in Sam Darnold as a potential bridge).

It's okay to love the Cousins signing for the Atlanta Falcons when they've been in a QB jam for the last two seasons and yet completely understand why Minnesota felt like it was time to move on.

Edge-rusher Danielle Hunter is one of the best at his position, but he will be 30 years old by the middle of the 2024 season. The Vikings went out and signed edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard from the Texans, who is only 26. While Greenard isn't the same player as Hunter, Minnesota understands where they're at and knows they need to get some younger pieces on its roster.

The Vikings also made a pre-draft day trade with the Texans that involved them giving up pick No. 42, No. 188, and their 2025 second-round pick for No. 23 and No. 232. This gives Minnesota two first-round picks (11 & 23) to come up for a quarterback on draft day if needed!

With head coach Kevin O'Connell known for his work with quarterbacks and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's analytics background, it's understandable why the Vikings want to get a new quarterback on a rookie deal to help keep their core intact while rebuilding on the fly. With WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson, a strong offensive line, and newly acquired RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota is the ideal spot to drop a rookie QB into.

While they likely still need to move up on draft day to assure one of the top-four quarterbacks, the Vikings front office deserves a lot of credit for having the courage to acknowledge their ceiling under Kirk Cousins at $45 million per season and to shoot for the stars instead. In a league where everyone is chasing Patrick Mahomes, playing it safe will only get you so far.

My thoughts on the Vikings QB situation and what they'll do in the draft.

1. With Picks Nos. 11 & 23, the Vikings now have the clear ability to move into the top five to select a QB. (But they might need to trade away more than just those picks to get there.)

2. The Commanders…

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) March 17, 2024

Houston Texans

The Texans are set to do some serious damage in the AFC for the foreseeable future. They've got their important cornerstone positions in place: QB C.J. Stroud, WR Nico Collins, WR Tank Dell, LT Laremy Tunsil, DE/Edge Will Anderson Jr., and CB Derek Stingley Jr.

Four of those five positions have a player who is still under their rookie contract. Why is that significant? The Texans having good players at QB, WR, Edge, and CB all on rookie deals means they're paying them all well below the market, giving them the flexibility to completely load up the rest of their roster at the other spots.

Houston signed edge-rusher Danielle Hunter on a two-year, $49 million deal, re-signed tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year, $36 million deal, traded for RB Joe Mixon for a seventh-round pick, and signed several other players.

The Texans likely feel that they are in the middle of a Super Bowl window even though Stroud is just 22 years old, and honestly, who can blame them? What GM Nick Caserio has done the last two offseasons (despite help from the Browns and their picks) has been an absolute masterclass in team building.

Washington Commanders

It's clear that a complete culture change is in place in the nation's capital. After years of turmoil and overaggressive spending in free agency, the Commanders have chosen to build for the long haul and sign plenty of high-character guys to make sure that the foundation is built the right way.

While players like RB Austin Ekeler, TE Zach Ertz, and LB Bobby Wagner won't help Washington for more than a season or two, they're the type of players who will have such a large impact in the locker room and on the rookies they will be bringing in. Washington owns the second pick in the draft and has boatloads of draft capital to keep taking the best players available in the draft.

They also signed C Tyler Biadasz, DT Dorance Armstrong, LB Frankie Luvu, and S Jeremy Chinn. It will likely take the Commanders more than one season to turn things around, but you can't help but respect the fact that they aren't trying to microwave this thing and want to build for the long haul.

Head coach Dan Quinn had plenty of success in Atlanta early on and GM Adam Peters cut his teeth under John Lynch on the 49ers and seems to have a solid grasp on what Washington needs to do.

The #Commanders now have 6 draft picks inside of the top-100. HUGE opportunity for them to replenish the young talent on that roster this year.

• 1st - No. 2
• 2nd - No. 36 and 40
• 3rd - No. 67, 78 and 100

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) March 14, 2024

NFL Free Agency Losers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Unfortunately, yours truly went to war with Jaguars media after the team selected tight end Brenton Strange with their second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft despite re-signing starting tight end Evan Engram and having a bevy of other needs. Strange finished his rookie year with just five receptions for 35 yards and one touchdown while the rest of the Jaguars offense ran out of steam down the stretch and the team missed the playoffs.

Instead of locking up talented edge-rusher Josh Allen, GM Trent Baalke and Co. waited until the 11th hour to get a deal done and had to use the franchise tag on Allen instead, which caused their starting WR1 Calvin Ridley to hit free agency where he signed a monster deal with the Tennessee Titans.

Per their prior trade with the Atlanta Falcons, the Jaguars would have had to give up their 2024 second-rounder versus their 2024 third-rounder if they had signed Ridley to an extension, but there was a loophole for the franchise tag.

Now, the Jags offense features newly signed WR Gabe Davis, WR Christian Kirk, and TE Evan Engram to go with RB Travis Etienne. I don't know why, but it just feels like Jacksonville has squandered QB Trevor Lawrence's rookie contract.

If only the Jaguars had signed Allen to a long-term deal and then they could have tagged Ridley. But it’s like one of those fumbles that plagued the offense last year.

— Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) March 13, 2024

Dallas Cowboys

Earth to Dallas, is anybody home? After owner Jerry Jones said the Cowboys were all-in heading into 2024, they've done anything but. QB Dak Prescott is in the last year of his deal and has a cap hit in 2024 of $59 million! Dallas's front office is also going to need to get an extension done with uber-talented WR CeeDee Lamb soon as well, which means their cap flexibility going forward will likely be less than it is now.

So far, the Cowboys have released more players than they've signed. The fact that they haven't gotten anywhere with their quarterback on an extension that could significantly lower his cap number for 2024 is troublesome. Dallas also has talented edge-rusher/linebacker Micah Parsons currently cheap on a rookie deal, so you have to wonder what they're doing here. Seriously, guys.

San Francisco 49ers

This probably feels more like nitpicking here given the 49ers' recent run of success that has seen them reach the NFC Championship or better in four of the last five seasons, but it's fair to question just exactly what they plan to do at edge-rusher opposite Nick Bosa, unless they feel that edge-rusher/linebacker Leonard Floyd is ready to do something he hasn't for his entire career.

The 49ers core is starting to get older and they are only going to have the benefit of QB Brock Purdy on his cheap rookie deal for two more seasons. This team doesn't have much depth at all at wide receiver, on the offensive line, or at edge-rusher.

How do they plan to fill out the rest of their roster in the draft? Newly acquired defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos didn't do much at all in his four seasons in Carolina to warrant a two-year, $18 million deal, but maybe the 49ers front office knows something we don't.

Conclusion

Get excited, gridiron fans, because the NFL Draft stage is set for a draft weekend that could flip the script faster than a referee tosses a coin. So, as we count down these next six weeks, let's revel in the anticipation, the potential for redemption, and the promise of new beginnings that the draft embodies.

After all, in the high-stakes poker game of NFL team building, it's not just about the cards you're dealt but how you play them. And believe me, this draft is shaping up to be one heck of a game-changer that could change some teams' fortunes in a hurry!

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