X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Busts Who Will Keep Junking It Up - 2023 Fantasy Baseball Infielders

Javier Baez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

One bust of a season can be enough rationale for fantasy baseball owners to steer clear of a player going forward. For others, it can open the door for a buy-low opportunity with hopes of a bounce-back return to form.

However, it’s realistic for us to understand that many players never come back the same. A down year can be a fluke or it may be indicative of a concerning trend. Predicting the new normal players is a crucial part of the draft strategy, and identifying the sunk cost of a true bust when you see one is critical.

This article explores several infield players who busted in 2022 compared to their ADP and unfolds why their struggles are likely to continue. There may still be some fantasy value left to salvage but none of these players should be expected to perform at a pre-2022 level.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Josh Donaldson, New York Yankees

It’s easy to fixate on the positives. Last season, Donaldson ranked above average with a 90.7 mph Average Exit Velocity, 43.3 HardHit%, and 9.8 Barrel %. He hits the ball hard. Those are encouraging optics until you understand how much those numbers slumped below Donaldson's career averages. In fact, 2022 resulted in many career lows for Donaldson, including a .215 xBA, .370 xSLG, 27.1 K%, and a .299 xwOBA. A major problem seems to be that he doesn’t hit the ball much at all, and an awful 33.2 Whiff % will back that up.

Plate discipline is a major indicator of Donaldson’s decline. He sported a respectable 9.9 BB% in 2022, which performed well below his 13.5% career average. He also posted a career-high 47.3 Swing %, 36.3 First Pitch Swing %, and a 29.3 Chase %, resulting in an underwhelming 94 OPS+. It’s become apparent that Donaldson is not reading pitches as well these days.

Furthermore, there’s no reason to believe Donaldson's job is secure this season. The Yankees are looking to win now and pressure from younger infielders like Oswald Cabrera and Anthony Volpe will likely put urgency on Donaldson to perform. If the struggles carry over into the regular season, he may be on a short leash before losing the starting gig altogether.

Back in 2018, Donaldson couldn’t shake the growing impression that his decline was in the works. He successfully fended off the nonbelievers with bounce-back performances in 2019 and 2021. However, following his worst season in 2022, it’s probably time to close the book on Josh Donaldson as a relevant fantasy baseball contributor. His plate discipline, power numbers, and job security are trending down in a fashion that is unlikely to rebound heading into his age-37 season.

 

Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

Maybe it was simply a down year, but now Báez is on the wrong side of 30 and his legendary problems with plate discipline finally came to a head in 2022. Across 140 games, Javy hit just 17 home runs en route to a .238/.278/.393 slash line. Coming off the first of a six-year, $160 million deal, the level of concern feels heightened here.

Encouragingly, Báez’s 24.9 K%, while still abysmal, was the second-lowest mark of his career. That’s effectively the extent of positive takeaways from last year. Everything else was at or near career-worst production – 87.9 mph Average Exit Velocity, .230 xBA, .378 xSLG, .285 xwOBA, 4.4 BB %, 38 HardHit%, 8 Barrel %. Even his notorious 43.4 Chase % jumped up to a league-leading 47.5%, while his 67.9 Zone Swing % was the lowest of his career.

A major component of Báez’s struggles is a difference in approach from opposing pitchers. Most notably, he’s not seeing nearly as many fastballs as before. 2022 saw Javy’s rate of incoming fastballs drop to 44.8% (down from 53.6%) while breaking pitches spiked to a career-high 42.5%. The metrics illustrate how much worse his breaking ball production is compared to fastballs -- .215 xBA (.240 vs fastballs), .341 xSLG (.422), .253 xwOBA (.310), and 44.9 Whiff % (26.2%). In short, Báez can’t read the breaking ball well and pitchers know it.

The other identifiable problem for Báez is a harsh change of scenery. The offensive caliber of the Tigers is a massive dip from his time with the Mets and Cubs. This means pitchers aren’t incentivized to give him anything good to hit, which is only exacerbated by his willingness to swing at balls outside the strike zone. Playing in Detroit makes Báez improving from last season's underwhelming output even more of an uphill battle.

The good news for prospective Báez fantasy buyers is that he did so poorly last season that the market appears to have over-corrected heading into 2023. His 183 ADP is very approachable, and it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft him even a little earlier. It’s hard to imagine he performs any worse than he did last year, so there really is nowhere to go but up. That said, Báez’s problems with plate discipline aren’t going away and pitchers have seemingly figured him out. Don’t expect his numbers to approach pre-2022 production going forward.

 

Whit Merrifield, Toronto Blue Jays

As something of a late bloomer, we knew our time with Whit Merrifield was going to be limited. Across 2017-2021, his production was fantastic, becoming a perennial 200-hit threat who also led the league in stolen bases in three out of five years. What Whit lacked in power hitting upside, he more than made up for in other ways. That run came to an end in 2022, with Merrifield producing a dreadful .250/.298/.375 slash line across 139 games – all career-worst numbers.

Merrifield’s regression has been a long time coming. Pretty much everything in his batted ball profile suggests a mediocre hitter – 87.1 mph Average Exit Velocity, 31.1 HardHit%, 4.2 Barrel %, .288 xwOBA. The most surprising part is that those stats are not even down from Merrifield's career numbers. He’s never hit the ball hard with any consistency and his walk rate is annually below average. His expertise is putting the ball in play, though clearly, the quality of contact has declined, as evidenced by his .240 xBA (.269 career) and .356 xSLG (.410 career) last year.

Nonetheless, Merrifield’s appeal has always been his base-stealing ability, and that’s where his case gets more concerning. In short, he simply stopped stealing as much last year. He totaled 16 stolen bases in 21 attempts in 2022, down from 40 stolen bases in 44 attempts the year prior. Merrifield’s subpar OBP is partly to blame, though he only attempted to steal twice in 44 games after getting traded to Toronto, despite improved performance at the plate.

At age 33 (now 34), the stolen base regression was partially a natural occurrence. Still, the Blue Jays' strategy is not helping matters. As a team, they attempted just 0.63 base steals per game, ranking in the bottom third of the MLB – compared to the league’s fifth-most attempts (0.85/game) from Merrifield's previous team, the Kansas City Royals. It’s clear there is a difference in philosophy on the matter, and Merrifield is an unfortunate casualty of circumstance.

Whit Merrifield is not irrelevant for fantasy purposes, but it would be shocking to see him approach his pre-2022 production again. He will continue operating as a weak-contact hitter, but with diminishing stolen base opportunities and increasing age, his ceiling is limited. Merrifield’s 171 ADP feels at least a couple of rounds premature.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Tennessee Titans18 mins ago

Titans Finalizing Deal With Sean Murphy-Bunting
Carolina Panthers23 mins ago

Panthers Rookie QB To See Plenty Of Reps
Jerry Jeudy29 mins ago

Cowboys Were In On Jerry Jeudy
O.J. Howard34 mins ago

Raiders Hosting O.J. Howard For A Visit
DJ Chark40 mins ago

Panthers Still Talking With DJ Chark
Trent Sherfield45 mins ago

Bills Sign Trent Sherfield To One-Year Deal
Zach Pascal51 mins ago

Cardinals Agree With Zach Pascal On Two-Year Deal
Casey O'Neill1 hour ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia1 hour ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze1 hour ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori1 hour ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Jhon Romero2 hours ago

Guardians Sign Jhon Romero To Minor-League Deal
Yu Chang2 hours ago

Held Up By Visa Issues
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

Looks Good In Spring Debut
Eury Perez3 hours ago

Reassigned To Minor-League Camp
Michael Soroka3 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut Wednesday
Matt Vierling3 hours ago

Playing Monday Against Blue Jays
Michael Lorenzen3 hours ago

Scratched With Groin Tightness
Kyle Busch3 hours ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Justin Turner3 hours ago

Back In Spring Lineup Monday
Ty Gibbs3 hours ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones4 hours ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney4 hours ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin4 hours ago

Has A Strong Showing
Austin Reaves4 hours ago

Becomes Unlikely Hero Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 hours ago

Picks Up A Triple-Double Sunday
Jalen Green5 hours ago

Scores Game-High 40 Points Sunday
Jimmy Butler5 hours ago

Gets A Double-Double With Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander5 hours ago

Drops 40 Points On Phoenix
Jacob deGrom5 hours ago

Looks Impressive In Spring Debut
Devin Booker5 hours ago

Goes Off For 46 Points
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Returns To Triple-Double Form
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Should Be Fine After Fouling Ball Off Leg
Jesper Bratt5 hours ago

Hits A Hat Trick Against Tampa Bay
K'Andre Miller5 hours ago

Racks Up Four First-Period Points
Nolan Arenado6 hours ago

Expected To Be Fine After HBP
Jaroslav Halak6 hours ago

Keeps Predators Quiet With 22 Saves
Austin Nola6 hours ago

May Have Broken Nose In Cactus League Game
Alex Pietrangelo6 hours ago

Hands Out Four Assists
Jack Eichel6 hours ago

Nets A Hat Trick In Big Win
Matthew Boldy6 hours ago

Extends Points Streak With A Hat Trick
Jhoan Duran6 hours ago

Suffers Leg Contusion On Sunday
Jake DeBrusk6 hours ago

Erupts For Four Points Sunday
Jeremy Swayman6 hours ago

Registers Another Shutout
Tyler Reddick8 hours ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Juan Soto9 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Mild Oblique Strain
Corey Lajoie16 hours ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell16 hours ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Naz Reid16 hours ago

Is Questionable On Monday
Christopher Bell16 hours ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Bennedict Mathurin16 hours ago

Questionable To Make Return On Monday
Joey Logano16 hours ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Kevin Huerter16 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday's Game Against Utah
Kevon Looney16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Rudy Gobert16 hours ago

Receives Questionable Tag For Monday
Jalen Duren17 hours ago

Exits In Third Quarter Against Miami
Detroit Lions17 hours ago

C.J. Gardner-Johnson On The Move To Detroit
Scottie Barnes17 hours ago

Exits On Sunday With Wrist Injury
Courtland Sutton17 hours ago

Broncos Unwilling To Deal Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Travin Howard To Visit The Cowboys On Monday
Ronald Jones17 hours ago

Cowboys To Host Ronald Jones On Monday
Adam Thielen18 hours ago

Agrees To Deal With Carolina
P.J. Tucker19 hours ago

Questionable For Monday
Anthony Edwards20 hours ago

Questionable Versus Knicks
Jaren Jackson20 hours ago

Jr. Questionable For Monday
Lauri Markkanen20 hours ago

Questionable Monday With Back Injury
Kyrie Irving21 hours ago

Questionable To Play Monday
Luka Doncic21 hours ago

Listed As Questionable To Play Monday
Ja Morant21 hours ago

Will Remain Out Monday Versus Dallas
Tampa Bay Buccaneers22 hours ago

Greg Gaines Joins Buccaneers
New York Jets22 hours ago

Ben Jones Drawing Interest From Jets?
Houston Texans22 hours ago

Laremy Tunsil Gets Extension
Brandin Cooks23 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Andrew Vaughn23 hours ago

Took Grounders On Sunday
Seiya Suzuki23 hours ago

Continues Making Progress
Max Kepler23 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Brandon Pfaadt23 hours ago

Reassigned To Minors
Glenn Otto23 hours ago

To Undergo MRI
Ricky Tiedemann23 hours ago

Throws On Saturday
Jurickson Profar24 hours ago

Signs With Rockies
Roope Hintz1 day ago

Delivers Three Assists
Brandon Hagel1 day ago

Celebrates A Hat Trick Against Montreal
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out The Penguins
Sebastian Aho1 day ago

Completes A Hat Trick In Overtime
Evander Kane1 day ago

Pots A Hat Trick Versus Seattle
Brad Marchand1 day ago

Tallies Three Assists Saturday
Nathan MacKinnon1 day ago

Has Three Points Against Detroit
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger2 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR2 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones2 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon2 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Isaac Seumalo Signs Three-Year Deal With Steelers
NASCAR2 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
Blaine Gabbert2 days ago

Stops In Vegas For A Visit
Foster Moreau2 days ago

Visits With Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Adam Gotsis Staying In Jacksonville
Roman Josi2 days ago

Exits With Injury Saturday
Joonas Korpisalo2 days ago

Hopes To Stay Perfect With His New Team
Mads Sogaard2 days ago

Looking For Form Against Toronto
Brian Elliott2 days ago

Starts For Tampa On Saturday
Jonathan Drouin2 days ago

Will Play Saturday
Mark Giordano2 days ago

Rested On Saturday
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Denies $20 Million Price Tag
Kamaru Usman3 days ago

Seeking Second Title Run
Leon Edwards3 days ago

Looks To Defend Crown On Saturday
Rafael Fiziev4 days ago

Earns Huge Co-Main-Event Showdown
Justin Gaethje4 days ago

Set For Another Co-Main-Event Showdown
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Trying To Pay Off Recent Form With A Win
Victor Perez5 days ago

Making A Rare Start On The PGA Tour
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

Still Shaking Off The Rust In Florida
Mark Hubbard5 days ago

Coming Off Strong Players Championship Result
Nate Lashley5 days ago

Finding Some Form To Start 2023
Wyndham Clark5 days ago

A Dangerous Name At The Valspar Championship
Justin Lower5 days ago

Looking To Capitalize On Weaker Field
Byeong-Hun An5 days ago

Flashing Vintage Form
Stewart Cink5 days ago

Looks To Stay Afloat At Valspar
Ben Taylor5 days ago

A Short-Game Wizard
Gary Woodland5 days ago

Has A Poisoned Putter
Martin Laird5 days ago

Playing Scared
Russell Knox5 days ago

Putting Putridly
PGA5 days ago

Adam Hadwin Looks To Continue Valspar Success
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Hopes To Get Putter Going At Valspar
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valspar
Eric Cole5 days ago

Continues To Play Well
Matthew NeSmith5 days ago

Could Be Considered At Valspar
PGA5 days ago

J.T. Poston Not An Option At Valspar Championship
Davis Riley5 days ago

Overvalued At Valspar Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

Has Risk At Valspar
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF