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NFL rookies are "shiny new toys" for fantasy managers. These young stars bring some fresh energy to every football season due to the tantalizing prospect of what type of contributors they might become. Like the organizations that drafted them, fantasy analysts are making educated guesses and projections as to how their skills will translate to the NFL level and the impact they will have for their new teams - and by extension - our fantasy squads.
Every year there are rookies that live up to the hype or underwhelm expectations. There are also first-year players that seemingly come out of nowhere to surprise us and take the fantasy football world by storm either through sheer talent, a terrific organizational fit, or an injury to a veteran that's ahead of them on the depth chart.
As we gear up for a new season, we will highlight 10 of 2023's most promising rookie NFL prospects. Don't get caught sleeping at the wheel, these are players that fantasy managers should know before heading into their league's draft, as these potential stars could have a profound impact both on the field and in your lineups over the upcoming year.
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Bijan Robinson - RB, Atlanta Falcons
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): RB5
We might as well kick things off with an obvious choice. Considered by many to be the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, chances are that Bijan Robinson was going to have a huge impact for any team that drafted him, but going to an Atlanta Falcons squad that is one of the NFL's most run-oriented offenses sends Robinson's likely fantasy impact factor into the stratosphere.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has brought his run-first philosophy to Atlanta from his time as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans, and he likely views Robinson as his new Derrick Henry. Smith's offense ran the ball at a 55.29% clip in 2022, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Yes, please.
While Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier did look sharp during his 2022 rookie campaign and will be a valuable handcuff, Robinson's overall talent, three-down back ability, and workhorse potential in Atlanta's run-at-all-cost offensive scheme make him a high-priority target in 2023 fantasy drafts. He currently grades out as the RB5 in our latest RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR) and is the top overall Dynasty option in this year's rookie class.
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): RB18
Yes, the Detroit Lions' selection of Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick of the 2023 NFL draft was a bit shocking, although their follow-up decision to deal often-injured running back D'Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles made their selection of Gibbs - and their intended usage of him - come into focus.
With offseason free-agency moves that effectively saw the Lions swap Jamaal Williams for David Montgomery, it isn't hard to envision this being a shared backfield, with Montgomery handling early-down and goal-line work, while Gibbs mixes in as a change-of-pace rusher and passing-down back.
While Detroit's willingness to bring in Montgomery on a fairly hefty free-agent contract is worrisome for Gibbs truthers, we should keep in mind that the Alabama product is an undeniably explosive back in which the Lions invested some very high draft capital. Though I can already envision Gibbs' fantasy managers getting frustrated with Montgomery's usage by Week 6, this is a Detroit offense that finished the 2022 season ranked fifth in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game and, from a fantasy perspective, can support the dynamic dual-threat rookie at a minimum RB2 level with upside for much more should Montgomery suffer an injury.
Jordan Addison - WR, Minnesota Vikings
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): WR39
The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner's draft stock slipped a bit due to both a ho-hum 4.49 40-yard dash time and his production dropping slightly following a transfer from Pitt to USC. However, Addison has proven himself to be a versatile receiver and sharp route runner that now lands in a juicy spot with the Minnesota Vikings.
Addison should quickly assume the WR2 role in the Vikes offense vacated by the now-departed Adam Thielen, who earned 107 targets last year. He'll have a chance to make an immediate impact in a Minnesota offense that finished 2022 ranked third in the NFL in team pass play percentage in head coach Kevin O'Connell's first year at the helm.
While you can argue that his upside is capped playing alongside Justin Jefferson and competing for targets with tight end T.J. Hockenson, Addison is a savvy, polished prospect that should thrive in the role of playing Robin to Jefferson's Batman in this high-powered offense. He has a terrific chance to lead all rookie WRs in fantasy production in 2023.
Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): WR48
An impressive physical specimen at 6'4", 215 lbs, Quentin Johnston fell to the 21st pick in the 2023 NFL draft, but gets a very cushy landing spot with the Los Angeles Chargers that could well make him the biggest steal of the first round.
The TCU alum joins an abundantly talented Chargers offense that underachieved in 2022 but enters 2023 with high expectations under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Johnston will catch passes from a legitimate franchise QB in Justin Herbert and should quickly get on the field alongside Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Johnston's fantasy upside is tied not only to his size, speed, and elite RAC ability that helped him to finish second in the NCAA last season, but also the fact that both Allen and Williams were perma-injured for the Chargers in 2022 and played 65% or more snaps together in just four games last season.
If either or both were to battle injuries again this year, the raw but explosive Johnston could quickly find himself as a top option in what's expected to be one of the NFL's most dynamic offenses. He's an intriguing high-upside stash in 2023 fantasy drafts, especially if you want some insurance after nabbing Allen or Williams in earlier rounds.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): WR43
The first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba lands in an intriguing spot with a Seattle Seahawks offense that appears to be trending up. Smith-Njigba was limited to just three games at Ohio State last season but was selected in large part due to the strength of a 2021 campaign in which he was the alpha of a Buckeye receiving corps that featured both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
A crisp route runner who can also make plays downfield, Smith-Njigba should see the field quickly in Seattle. However, he will not be without target competition in a Seahawks receiving corps that included DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. While an injury to either would send his stock soaring, there's reason to believe that he could still see plenty of work in the slot if Seattle increases their 11 personnel use this season, with Metcalf and Lockett working on the outside and drawing heavy coverage.
Devon Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): RB45
The true definition of a boom-or-bust fantasy prospect, Dolphins rookie Devon Achane possesses a scary-low floor, but a ceiling that's very intriguing in Mike McDaniel's run scheme. A track athlete in both high school and at Texas A&M, Achane possesses elite speed and explosiveness, which he displayed both on the field while in college and at the NFL Combine, where he blazed a 4.32 40-time that was the fastest at the running back position this year.
His compact stature, along with the presence of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., will likely keep him from being a true three-down back in the NFL, but his dynamic home-run ability should make the Dolphins eager to get him on the field in some capacity. Although Achane is a capable runner between the tackles, he truly shines in space. He's a deadly perimeter runner that can turn any play into a touchdown.
From a fantasy perspective, he'll likely be a feast-or-famine asset that blows up for huge games, while being a non-factor in others. Despite that volatile projection, something tells me that McDaniel - one of the league's sharper offensive minds - will find ways to get the electric Achane involved enough to make him a fantasy-viable asset this season.
Kendre Miller - RB, New Orleans Saints
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): RB51
With Alvin Kamara's looming suspension finally handed down, we now know that the Saints will be without their star back for the first three weeks of the season which feels like a lighter punishment than most expected. Offseason signing Jamaal Williams will likely handle the lead role in Kamara's absence, but rookie Kendre Miller should also see plenty of work in tandem with Williams at the outset of the year.
Miller runs with an undeniable ferociousness that helped him to break 109 tackles and average 3.8 yards after contact during his TCU career. He blossomed as the Horned Frogs' clear lead back in 2022, gaining 1,399 yards on the ground and finding the end zone 17 times.
He underwent surgery to repair an MCL injury shortly after TCU's loss in the national championship game and opened training camp on the NFI list, so there are some concerns that come with taking a flier on Miller in fantasy drafts. However, there's a chance that he could blow the lumbering Williams off the field early on and earn a legitimate role in the Saints backfield for the remainder of the season with a strong start.
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): TE18
Although the tight end position is notoriously a tough one for rookies, Sam LaPorta will have the opportunity to make an immediate impact for the Detroit Lions, who selected him with the 34th overall pick of the draft.
Detroit shipped incumbent tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings in a trade deadline deal last season and no legitimate replacement for Hockenson emerged down the stretch in 2023. This means the LaPorta has a clear path to playing time and targets for this evolving Lions passing attack that boasts Amon-Ra St. Brown and not much else in the wide-receiving corps.
LaPorta led an Iowa Hawkeye program that's been an NFL tight-end factory in receiving each of the last two years. His versatile skill set should give him an opportunity to be a legitimate three-down tight end at the NFL level right out of the gate. Lions GM Brad Holmes himself has stated that he expects LaPorta to be an impact player right away for the team. At a position that's often a brutal one for fantasy managers, the talented rookie projects to have an intriguing combination of fantasy floor and ceiling this season.
Sam LaPorta is looking DANGEROUS 😳
LaPorta reportedly looks “far and away” the best TE on the Lions roster.
LaPorta has reportedly already became one of Jared Goff’s “primary” targets.
The Lions reportedly plan for LaPorta to play a big role right away.
The Lions seem to… pic.twitter.com/DP8U00HDXK
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 6, 2023
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): TE16
The presence of incumbent TE Dawson Know certainly puts a damper on Dalton Kincaid's potential production in an explosive Bills offense. However, the fact that Buffalo traded up to select Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft speaks volumes about his talent.
With some serious draft capital invested in the former Utah Ute, we can expect the athletically-gifted Kincaid to steadily eat into Knox's targets as the season progresses enough to make the rookie the Bills tight end that fantasy managers should prefer to roster. We can expect him to serve as something of a TE/WR hybrid that should add a vertical pass-catching element to the position for Josh Allen.
A talented pass catcher, Kincaid averaged a chunky 13.2 yards per reception while at Utah. While Knox's presence caps his upside and will likely negatively impact his consistency to a degree, the rookie brings some tantalizing explosiveness to the table at a position that can be rage-inducing for fantasy managers.
Anthony Richardson - QB, Indianapolis Colts
Current RotoBaller Rankings (Half PPR): QB14
While Anthony Richardson is the least polished of the three QBs selected with the first four picks of the 2023 NFL draft, his fantasy potential dwarfs that of both Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud in both the short and long term. The key word there is potential, something that must be emphasized when discussing a player that put together perhaps the most impressive NFL Combine performance in history, yet started just 13 football games while at the University of Florida.
Despite his lack of experience at the college level, as the start of the NFL season draws near it appears more and more likely that Richardson will be in the Colts' lineup sooner rather than later, as he's been seeing lots of first-team reps during Indy's training camp. It seems that the physical phenom is in perfect hands with new Indy head coach Shane Steichen, who helped to develop Jalen Hurts into one of the league's most potent dual-threat QBs during his time in Philly and also spent time working with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. While we can't expect anything near Hurts or Herbert-like production from Richardson right away, Steichen's history with them does bode well for the rookie's fantasy outlook.
The most common comp you'll hear for Richardson is "young Cam Newton" and I suppose that's as close as you can get to describing a once-in-a-generation type athlete at the QB position that appears to have been designed in a lab with the purpose of scoring fantasy points. With those physical gifts and the fantasy upside that comes with them duly noted, it isn't hard to envision Richardson's rookie campaign being one of peaks and valleys, perhaps even one in which Colts' veteran backup Gardner Minshew comes in occasionally to steady the ship. Taking that potential volatility into account, Richardson still profiles as the most intriguing rookie QB to target in fantasy drafts this year.
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