10 Lineup Busts and Avoids for Week 13

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Week 13 is here, which means some people are starting the playoffs (if you're playing two-week playoff match-ups in leagues with four playoff teams and aren't doing Week 17, or if you have some weird system of playoff byes) and many more people are preparing for their final game before the playoffs begin. It's at these times that our decision making becomes very important.

Or, it's at these times when our luck becomes important. I have a league starting playoffs now, and even though I've been the second highest scoring team this season, I needed a lot of luck to sneak in at 6-6. The Russell Wilson/ Doug Baldwin touchdown on Monday night back in Week 11 gave me a nail-biting sixth win, and then in Week 12--against the lowest scoring team in my league--I put up my first sub-70 point game of the season. Thanks, point differential! And thanks Russell Wilson!

At this point, the thing that will make or break you in a must win game is going to be, primarily, luck, but making some wise decisions about players to avoid can help you out as well. That's why I'm here, again!

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Recap of Last Week

Quarterback: It was a bad week for me. Jared Goff had another strong fantasy game against the Saints, tossing for 354 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Josh McCown did even better, throwing for three touchdowns in a shootout loss to Carolina. I didn't factor in the Robby Anderson Experience when thinking about McCown.

Running Back: Of course Joe Mixon had the best game of his career against Cleveland. I think it's time to stop buying into the idea that was floating around the fantasy football universe that you should avoid running backs who play the Browns. Alex Collins had a solid day as well, finding the end zone and rushing for 60 yards. Kenyan Drake didn't have the yardage one would have liked, but he also found the end zone. If you're keeping track at home, I'm 0-for-5 at this point. Yikes!

Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper was well on his way to not being a bust--his first catch was a nine yard touchdown grab--before he left the game with a concussion. Jordy Nelson was completely unable to get going against the Steelers, even though the rest of the Packers offense came to life. That's...odd. Larry Fitzgerald was equally ineffective, though he added a two-point conversion along the way.

Tight End: I think we're done with Cameron Brate, y'all. He's been a non-entity the past few games. Jimmy Graham didn't have many yards, but he found the end zone again.

Below are ten lineup busts and avoids for Week 13 of NFL action.

 

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 13

Matthew Stafford (Quarterback, Detroit Lions)

Stafford plays against a Ravens team that is second-best against quarterbacks, just a small bit behind the Jacksonville defense. He's only scored 20+ fantasy points three times this season, and seems more likely to finish with less than 15 this week than he does to explode for a huge game.

Andy Dalton (Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals)

Speaking of touch match-ups, Andy Dalton gets the Steelers, who have been good against quarterbacks all season. Yes, Brett Hundley had a good game against them last week and yes, Dalton is on a bit of a hot streak dating back to Week 8--he's thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game over that span (he didn't throw any against Jacksonville) and hasn't tossed an interception. Why am I concerned? Dalton has played two teams whose average points allowed against quarterbacks are comparable to Pittsburgh. There's the aforementioned Jaguars game, when he finished with just 136 yards, and there's the season-opener against the Ravens, when he finished with 170 yards and four interceptions. I don't trust Dalton against top defenses.

Tevin Coleman (Running Back, Atlanta Falcon)

Coleman is coming off three consecutive good games, but Devonta Freeman is back and Atlanta plays the Vikings. Coleman will still get touches, but don't expect anything close to the production we've been seeing from him.

Lamar Miller (Running Back, Houston Texans)

See DeMarco Murray blurb below.

DeMarco Murray (Running Back, Tennessee Titans)

I'm using the same space for both Murray and Miller because the Texans and Titans are playing each other and both running backs present similar concerns for me. Both defenses are among the best against the running back position, which suggests this could end up being a game in which the teams don't find much space on the ground. Murray has Derrick Henry pushing him for playing time, whereas Miller has a much more solid grip on the starting role in theory, though he was a little banged-up last week and ceded carries to Alfred Blue even after returning to the game. It wouldn't be a shock to see more 0f a timeshare this week, especially if the newly acquired Andre Ellington is active and sees work on third downs. This has the makings of one of those very, very low scoring games.

T.Y. Hilton (Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts)

Hilton has been a huge disappointment in the majority of his games this season, and I see no reason to expect that to change against the league's best defense. Hilton had two catches for 27 yards the last time the teams played.

Corey Coleman (Wide Receiver, Cleveland Browns)

Josh Gordon is back. The way I see it, that could mean one of two things for Coleman. The first is that the Chargers defense continues to treat Coleman as the number one receiver, which would lead to more open field for Gordon. The other thing is the opposite. Either way, the Chargers defense has been on fire lately and the Browns passing attack will likely struggle to get going.

Doug Baldwin (Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks)

You can't sit Baldwin because he's Russell Wilson's top target on a team that has no running game, but he hasn't had the best games the past couple of weeks (a late touchdown in Week 11 salvaged a rough game), and the Eagles have a really strong defense. It might be smart to play someone with a really, really solid floor at your other WR spot to mitigate some of the potential failings of Baldwin this week, though it wouldn't be too much of a shock to see him find the end zone.

Ricky Seals-Jones (Tight End, Los Angeles Rams)

I just wrote an article for RotoBaller about how Seals-Jones is a good player and worth consideration in Dynasty formats, but I don't love his match-up this week against a Rams defense allowing just 40 yards-per-game to opposing tight ends. Seals-Jones is a talented receiver, but Los Angeles will likely shut him out of the end zone this week.

Cameron Brate (Tight End, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Maybe--MAYBE--you're thinking that a healthy Jameis Winston will get Brate going again, but you are likely wrong. The Buccaneers play the Packers, who have been the top team this season against opposing tight ends. O.J. Howard is going to keep increasing his target share. Brate is droppable in shallow formats and unplayable in most others.

 

More Week 13 Lineup Prep