Week 12 Red Zone Risers and Fallers

November 23, 2018

Richard King looks at red zone risers and fallers to identify players with higher fantasy football scoring potential in Week 12, based on touches and opportunity in the red zone.

It's time to prepare for the playoff stretch and make a run. We all want to know who has the best path to score on Sunday to help give us valuable fantasy points. RotoBaller's Premium Red Zone tool can give you a sense of who is being utilized more in the all-important area of the field to provide more scoring potential. Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues.

In this article each week, we'll identify red zone risers and fallers who could see their fantasy value impacted by usage in the most critical area of the field. RotoBaller's Red Zone Sleepers tool is a great way to get an edge on the competition by identifying players with greater scoring opportunities.

Let's take a look at which fantasy football players could be touchdown and scoring risers or fallers in fantasy football for Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season, based on red zone opportunities.

Red Zone Risers

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG) - 40.2% Red-zone touch %

Barkley is now one of an elite club- he has surpassed the 40% red-zone touch club joining fantasy elite players such as Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara & James Conner. Barkley has transformed the way the Giants play football, as he is a true talent in the backfield. Barkley accounted for nine of the Giants 11 touches last week in the red zone, converting three of those into touchdowns. The Giants are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the red zone which is not a surprise given the players at Eli Manning's disposal, including Odell Beckham Jr, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, but Barkley is very capable at catching the ball himself while also dominating any rushing plays that are run in the red zone. Fantasy owners were always going to include him in their lineups, but he is now an elite red-zone weapon and deserves the recognition.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB) - 22.4% Red-zone touch %

The Green Bay Packers have been a disappointing team on offense this year, even with quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm. One problem did seem to be what the team was going to do in the backfield, with the Packers opening the season with the tandem of Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery. The Packers shipped Montgomery out of town and gave Jones the lead back role. While the Packers have passed on 67% of the red zone plays, the ability of Jones should mean that he gets increased work inside the 20-yard zone. He had all four touches for the Packers in the last game and converted one in a touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI) - 19.0% Red-zone touch%

After changing offensive co-ordinator Arizona has been more improved on offense. While running back David Johnson is still the largest part of the offense and should expect that role going forwards, Fitzgerald still seems as though he is able to create separation in the red zone. The Cardinals ran five separate plays in the red zone in their last game, and Fitzgerald had two touches & two touchdowns. Even with impressive rookie Christian Kirk lining up out wide and Fitzgerald receiving extra cover in the red zone he currently has over double the number of touches than Kirk.

Josh Reynolds (WR, LAR) - 4.7% Red-zone touch%

The wide receiver position still needs to work itself out in Los Angeles after Cooper Kupp got injured, but Josh Reynolds is a great add if he is available in your league. The Rams are a great offense and have now run 150 plays in the red zone this season. While Gurley, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are primary weapons for quarterback Jared Goff- the number of trips they make means that Reynolds will still have value. In the last game against the Chiefs where the team ran 18 plays in the red zone, Reynolds three touches were only bettered by Woods, and they both scored a touchdown.

TIGHT END

Antonio Gates (TE, LAC) - 9.5% Red-zone touch%

Death, taxes and Philip Rivers throwing the ball to Antonio Gates. Rivers to Gates has been one of the most effective combinations in NFL history. Gates enjoyed more focus from Rivers this week, from five plays run the red zone he touched the ball three times and converted one into a touchdown. While the Chargers are likely to run the majority of their red zone plays through Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen, the landscape of the tight end position means that Gates could be someone to keep an eye on going forward.

Red Zone Fallers

RUNNING BACK

Mike Davis (RB, SEA) - 16.0% Red-zone touch%

The Seattle backfield has been a bit of a minefield this season, and that looks to continue with the recent performances of rookie Rashaad Penny. Davis is likely to struggle in getting many opportunities with Penny and the lead back Chris Carson taking the majority of the running back snaps. Combining that with the balanced offense of the Seahawks who pass on 55% on their red zone plays means that Davis is unlikely to get touches in the red zone- particularly if receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Ed Dickson continue in being given opportunities in the red zone.

WIDE RECEIVER

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN) - 7.3% Red-zone touch%

The Denver Broncos seem to have stalled under quarterback Case Keenum and the lack of effective quarterback play has effected Sanders impact on the team- Sanders is yet to score a touchdown in the red zone, and hasn't had a touch for several weeks. The team is clearly leaning on their rookie running back duo of Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman in the red zone- both have combined for over 47% of the teams touches in the red zone. With tight end Jeff Heuerman being used as Kennum's safety blanket there seems to be a lack of opportunities for Sanders to be involved.

TIGHT END

Mark Andrews / Nick Boyle (TE, BAL) - 5.7% Red-zone touch%

The Baltimore Ravens have long been a team that has utilized the tight end position, but the offense looks to have changed with the changing of the quarterback from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson. The Ravens had 13 plays in the red zone in Jackson's first game and he rushed for six of those, with running backs Alex Collins and Gus Edwards combining for another five touches. While it is only one game, that shows that the offense could well be changing in the red zone towards rushing the ball in. The crowded nature of the Ravens tight end position means that neither is going to present much opportunity in the red zone going forwards.

Red Zone Sleepers

RotoBaller's Premium tools offer more detailed insight into player values and help you identify which players to target on the waiver wire and/or trade market. Start with a free one-week trial, including NFL Optimizer and DFS Premium and get an advantage on the competition!

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