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Brandon Murchison analyzes optimal DFS value plays for tournaments for Week 1 of the NFL season. These GPP value plays are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
With Week 1 of the NFL season finally at hand, fantasy football can begin in earnest. And while most are excited to begin their seasonal leagues and the march to a championship, many owners are ready for the return of NFL DFS.
The first week of the season is a clean slate that can open the doors for even the novice DFS player to be able to cash in GPPs. Player ownership will be spread across the board presenting numerous unique lineups in the big pools. But what is one way to ensure that you will be able to cash in? Hitting on the low-level and often overlooked players. These less expensive options allow you to build a stronger lineup and compete against even the best.
What are some of the top sneaky plays for Week 1? That is what I present to you. Some DFS options for Week 1 GPPs and tournaments with plus matchups that you would not normally consider.
Week 1 Quarterback Value Play for GPPs
Josh Allen @ New York Jets (Fanduel $6,900, DraftKings $5,600)
Josh Allen is not the first player that comes to mind for owners looking to cash in at the quarterback position in Week 1. But the truth of the matter is that he is presented with a quality matchup right out of the gates. In his lone previous game against the Jets (Week 14 last season), he did only muster 206 passing yards on the day. But where he excelled was on the ground (9 for 101 and a score). Now you won't be able to count on the rushing stats going into this one, but with the additions the Bills made to the passing game in the offseason, Allen could easily improve. Facing a Jets secondary that was 7th in points allowed to QBs in 2018 (19.4 FPPG), Allen could provide a very productive day at little cost in DFS.
Week 1 Running Back Value Play for GPPs
Justice Hill @ Miami Dolphins (Fanduel $5,000, DraftKings $3,600)
Talking about a deep dive as you construct your lineup for Week 1, I give to you Justice Hill. Although the rookie will be playing behind Mark Ingram in the Ravens backfield, the matchup could still prove to be fruitful for owners. Facing potentially the worst team in the league, look for the Ravens to get out to a large lead in this game. Which will mean plenty of playing time for the subs early on. The Dolphins come into Week 1 after surrendering the 4th most points per game to opposing RBs in 2018 (22.9 FPPG). Couple that with Hill's ability to break a long play and you have a back that could easily outproduce his price point in DFS this week.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Value Play for GPPs
Terry McLaurin @ Philadelphia Eagles (Fanduel $4,500, DraftKings $3,300)
Another rookie with a positive matchup in Week 1 is Terry McLaurin. Playing well during the preseason, he won the starting job at receiver coming out of camp and has a chance to prove just why this week. In a game in which the Redskins should be trailing all day, the team will be looking to throw the ball to keep up. This lines up well for McLaurin, who will be facing an Eagles secondary that was susceptible to allowing points to opposing WRs in 2018 (27.4 FPPG). I expect to see him targeted quite a bit on Sunday and has a high probability of getting into the end-zone. He is an option in DFS that is next to free and will allow you to load up in other areas.
Week 1 Tight End Value Play for GPPs
Geoff Swaim vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Fanduel $4,500, DraftKings $2,900)
Most players in DFS will either look to pay up at the tight end position or just simply punt it as they fill out a lineup. One option that you can use in Week 1 as an extreme long shot is Geoff Swaim. Playing against the Chiefs means that the Jaguars will be playing from behind in this game. Facing a defense that was the worst in points allowed to the position in 2018 (11.0 FPPG) does not hurt either. With Nick Foles under center for the team, you know that he will look to utilize the tight end in the passing game, making Swaim the prime beneficiary. He may not light up the scoreboard with yardage in Week 1, but I do expect to see him get into the end-zone. Making him a very sneaky play for the week.
