We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 6 Outliers

October 15, 2019

Week 6 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought many surprises and unexpected sleepers and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances in order to provide reasonable advice to fantasy owners.

In Week 6, several players exploded in fantasy lineups. There were a few receivers that were above the rest of the pack in Week 6, such as Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin and Tyreek Hill, but there shouldn't be any surprises there as those guys should have been in fantasy lineups. At the quarterback position, the usual cast of characters finished at the top, with the exception of Kirk Cousins cracking the top-six, taking advantage of a brutal Philadelphia Eagles secondary for four touchdowns and over 300 yards through the air.

At the running back position, nothing too unusual happened at the top of running back scoring. Miles Sanders was the exception, finishing as an RB1 after scoring a touchdown on a long reception, racking up 92 yards on just six touches. On the low end, Joe Mixon had another stinker of a game for the Bengals, gaining just 10 yards on the ground off of eight carries, adding 29 yards in the air off of three targets. Until Cordy Glenn and AJ Green return to the lineup for the Bengals, you need to pray Mixon scores in order to come through for fantasy purposes.

At tight end, Ricky Seals-Jones was the focus on this column a few weeks back, but he got it done again in Week 6, getting targeted six times, hauling in three of them for 47 yards and one touchdown. Given the landscape of the tight end position in fantasy football, Seals-Jones is a viable option in 12-team and deeper leagues moving forward. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to evaluate how to move forward for Week 7.

Jared Goff (QB, LAR)

Week 6 Stats: 13 of 24, 78 yards

Jared Goff had a day to forget in Week 6 against the San Francisco 49ers, completing just 54.2% of his passes for 78 yards. Goff threw for just 3.3 yards-per-attempt which was a season low. Over his last three games heading into Sunday, Goff threw for five touchdowns and 1,180 yards, so he had been getting it done for fantasy purposes. The 49ers Defense simply proved to be too much for the Rams this week.

Bottom Line: As the QB-17 on the season, Goff was considered a QB2 in 12-team leagues heading into Week 6, so he shouldn't have been in your starting lineup, or used in DFS. However, with more bye weeks looming and more injuries sure to happen, you shouldn't hesitate turning to Goff down the stretch if you need him as long as he has a decent matchup. It's also worth noting that the Rams left guard Joseph Noteboom was injured in this game, which made the mismatch in the trenches even worse for the Rams.

Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Week 6 Stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD

Heading into Week 6, Robby Anderson only had 11 catches for 131 yards and no scores. Anderson's Week 6 stat line included a 92-yard touchdown catch on a bomb from Sam Darnold. On the play, the Cowboys safety was late getting over to the center of the field in coverage, dove in an attempt to make a play, missed Anderson, and the wide receiver out of Temple took the catch to the house, untouched.

Bottom Line: This was a tough matchup for Robby Anderson, as he figured to see a lot of Byron Jones in coverage. However, now that Sam Darnold is back in the lineup, Anderson showed us he has big play ability, and can take any catch to the house. The Jets play the Patriots next week, and Anderson should see a lot of Stephon Gilmore, so he likely won't repeat this performance in Week 7. Anderson is a good wide receiver, but his schedule is tough. If Anderson's matchup is poor, you should only start him if you're in a pinch.

Jaron Brown (WR, SEA)

Week 6 Stats: 5 targets, 3 catches, 29 yards, 2 TD

Heading into the Seahawks Week 6 matchup against the Browns, Jaron Brown was targeted just 13 times, catching eight balls for 116 yards and no scores. In Week 6, Russell Wilson distributed the ball rather evenly, with three players tied for the team lead in targets with five. Brown played just 54.2% of the Seahawks offensive snaps and took advantage of every opportunity he got.

Bottom Line: Brown has played on less than 57% of the Seahawks offensive snaps in three of six games this season. Brown is nothing more than a bye week streamer in deeper leagues. He simply doesn't play enough snaps to be viable on a week-to-week basis in 12-team leagues.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

Week 6 Stats: 4 targets, 0 catches, 2 carries, 16 yards, 1 TD

The Rams Week 6 matchup against the 49ers is one that the Rams would like to soon forget. The 49ers clearly had the Rams number and this game should be flushed for all fantasy analysis. The Rams only got off 50 plays on offense, compared to 76 for the 49ers. All of the Rams wide receivers, in general, came up small. Even Cooper Kupp gained just 17 yards off of four catches. The Rams also lost their left guard Joseph Noteboom, during the game, which didn't help matters as the Rams offensive line was dominated by the 49ers defensive front.

Bottom Line: On the season, Robert Woods has been targeted 51 times in the passing game, hauling in 31 catches for 355 yards, adding 7 carries, 59 yards and 1 TD on the ground. Woods is being targeted heavily in the passing game, second to Cooper Kupp who has 69 targets on the season. Woods simply hasn't caught a touchdown yet which is frustrating. Woods is a prime buy-low target.

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)

Week 6 Stats: 19 carries, 88 yards, 3 targets, 3 catches, 30 yards, 2 TD

Devonta Freeman has underwhelmed so far this season and currently sits as an RB2. Freeman now has 102 touches, 478-scrimmage yards and 3 TD on the season, which is good for 88.80-PPR points.

Bottom Line: Freeman had 26.80 points in Week 6, which is 30.2% of his fantasy production on the year. Freeman needs a good matchup to come through for fantasy, and the Falcons have the Rams and Seahawks coming up as their next two opponents. The Rams can be run on, but this one may get out of hand for the Falcons if the Rams put up big points early. You may want to sell-high on Freeman at this time.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)

Week 6 Stats: 7 targets, 3 catches, 51 yards

Mike Gisecki was TE-15 on the week off of seven targets, which tied him for the third-most targets out of all tight ends in Week 6.

Bottom Line: Tight end is not a good position in fantasy football this year, as there are very few players that come through on a consistent basis. Gisecki saw seven targets in Week 6, but that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for the Dolphins after Josh Rosen was benched. The Dolphins are likely to turn back to Josh Rosen for Week 7, and if that happens, Gisecki will likely remain unusable in most formats other than extremely deep leagues.

Ryan Griffin (TE, NYJ)

Week 6 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards, 1 TD

Ryan Griffin had been non-existent for fantasy purposes with Luke Falk under center for the Jets, and came through for fantasy in Week 6 because he scored a touchdown.

Bottom Line: When Chris Herndon IV returns to action from his hamstring injury, he will likely assume a majority of the snaps at the tight end position for the Jets. If Herndon misses the the Jets Week 7 matchup against the Patriots, Griffin may be a solid streaming option given the Patriots dominant cornerbacks on the outside. However, you cannot count on Griffin long term.

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