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Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 2-3


The Rotoballer fantasy football crew got together recently to run a mock dynasty startup draft. Here, I'll give some analysis of the second and third round selections. Make sure to check out yesterday's first-round recap as well.

The second and third rounds are, for me, the sweet spot where player values aren't quite as well defined as they are in the first round, but top-flight players are still available. Let's take a look at the selections, then I'll give some thoughts below the table.

Ed. Note: For continual coverage of NFL free agency news and its fantasy impact, keep tuned to RotoBaller!

 

Rounds 2-3

For those keeping score at home, that's two tight ends, six running backs, and 16 wide receivers. The second round started with a big run. The first eight picks, and eight of the first nine, were receivers. Thereafter our selections were much more equitably split. Ten of the 16 WRs were the top target on their team last year. The rest are a mix of players in high volume offenses that can support multiple fantasy WRs (e.g. Davante Adams), and players expected to break out in 2017 (e.g. Corey Coleman). Five of the RBs were top 15 finishers last season, while one was a rookie. The TEs are two of the best, although both come with big injury concerns.

I really like the succession of T.Y. Hilton, Stefon Diggs, and Brandin Cooks. None fit the mold of a "traditional WR1," but all are real-life WR1s. I also liked getting Demaryius Thomas in the third round. He's gone over 220 PPR points in five straight seasons, including last year, when his quarterback situation was far from ideal. He's as close to a sure thing as there is.

Keep in mind this is subjective based on my perspective, and that I'm not privy to the overall strategy my colleagues employed. There are definitely arguments in favor of other players.

 

Best Picks

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Did you know Hilton has more 1,000-yard seasons (four) than either of the players taken ahead of him? Alshon Jeffery has just two, while Dez Bryant has three. Unlike the other two, Hilton has missed just two games in four seasons and is attached to Andrew Luck. He's as solid as they come, which is what you want in the early stages of any draft.

Davante Adams (WR, GB) - A top-10 WR a year ago, he lasted until WR 21 in our draft. He's still just 24 years old, has a great QB, and plays in an offense that can support multiple WRs. Speaking of those other WRs, Randall Cobb's performance has declined two straight years, Jeff Janis isn't happening, and Ty Montgomery switched positions. Adams should get all the work he can handle in 2017.

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) - He's older and has less of a draft pedigree than Adams, but there's no denying he's the top WR in Seattle. The Seahawks have been trending towards more passing volume, and there's not much threat behind Baldwin on the depth chart. Tyler Lockett's numbers were down before a major leg injury, and Jermaine Kearse is "just a guy." Baldwin may not score 14 TDs like he did in 2015, but coming off back-to-back 100 target / 1,000 yard seasons, he's a great pick at this part of the draft.

 

Biggest Reaches

I actually like all three of these players, just not at these prices.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI) - Jeffery landed in Philadelphia where he'll arguably be the team's top WR and, if healthy, could earn a WR1 workload. The catch is that I'm not sure yet how good Carson Wentz is. I'm also not sure how healthy Jeffery will be. I think he can be very effective for the Eagles, I just think a few of the WRs taken later are more sure things.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - Howard was insanely efficient (over five yards per carry) as a rookie, but efficiency isn't very sticky from year to year. It's reasonable to expect he'll be less efficent. The Bears may lose Jeffery and end up with a retread or rookie QB. That offense could be very bad, which means fewer drives, and fewer scoring opportunities. Add in the elevated positional injury risk, and I think safer options with similar upside can be found.

Dalvin Cook (RB, FA) - Without knowing how he tested (our draft was pre-combine) or where he'll play, I would go in a different direction. Not every great RB prospect is a hit. For every Ezekiel Elliott there's a Trent Richardson. Now that the combine has happened, and he tested poorly, there's a little more risk with this pick.

Look for the next segment of our dynasty draft recap tomorrow and stay tuned to RotoBaller for the rest of our mock recaps throughout the coming weeks!

 

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