RADIO
Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 13th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Friday, May 13th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Happy New Year! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/13/22
We have a three-game slate tonight. We have one game starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, one at 7:30 PM Eastern, and one at 9:30 PM Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter, however, we have not seen that as much in this year's playoffs. Even so in cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
NYR @ PIT || PIT is up 3-2
FLA @ WSH || FLA is up 3-2
CGY @ DAL || CGY is up 3-2
Colorado swept Nashville so they now rest while they wait for the winner of Saint Louis and Minnesota. This slate is going to be awesome as three teams are on the brink of elimination but could also extend the series for a seventh game. There's nothing quite like an elimination game and I recommend checking some of these games out if you can!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jacob Markstrom - DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Markstrom has played as well as any goalie has in the last two games having faced 46 shots and allowing just two goals. Calgary are on the roll and my feeling is they close this series out tonight. Calgary has the second strongest Vegas odds and Markstrom has been playing well, making him my top pick for tonight.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): You can make an argument to roster any goalie on this slate. Markstrom and Bobrovsky would be more of cash game type of plays. Oettinger, Domingue, and Vanecek would be more of your large field GPP plays to get leverage on the field against a likely popular stack.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center, you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below, you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Aleksander Barkov- DK $7.6K || FD $9.4K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
The Panthers have the strongest odds to win and the highest implied total (3.8) on the slate. Barkov has three assists and 10 shots on goal in the last two games. You can play him standalone in hopes that those high volumes of shots will translate into goals soon (he only has one this series), and you can pair him up with a winger on the line as he has four assists in the series.
Elias Lindholm - DK $6.2K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Lindholm has three goals and one assist in this series with 11 shots on goal. As stated earlier, I believe Calgary closes this series out tonight. The Stars have been allowing many shots on goal each game, 180 shots in five games. I like his price for being someone who has scored 40 goals in a game I think Calgary runs away with.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Zibanejad (DK $6.6K || FD $7.3K), Malkin (DK $6.1K || FD $7.5K - Could be on the top line if Crosby is out), Kuznetov (DK $5.2K || FD $7.0K), Bennett (DK $5.1K || FD $6.2K), Strome (DK $5.0K || FD $6.5K), Seguin (DK $4.3K (Winger on DK)|| FD $5.0K), or any other second line or third line center you like.
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off, I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Jake Guentzel- DK $7.5K || FD $8.8K
Opponent - New York Rangers
Guentzel has been stepping up the last couple of games for Pittsburgh. He has three goals, one assist on 13 shots in the last two games played. On the season he has been very productive with 93 points in 82 games played.
Artemi Panarin - DK $6.3K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
I don't necessarily think New York does well here playing on the road facing elimination. That said, Panarin is a pretty consistent point-getter and has had a good series with two goals, four assists, and 14 shots on goal. He also has a three-game point-scoring streak in this series. I would not play him in a GPP but in a cash lineup, I would.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $7.6K || FD $9.8K), Huberdeau (DK $7.0K || FD $9.1K), Kreider (DK $6.6K || FD $8.0K), Tkachuk (DK $6.0K || FD $8.2K), Robertson (DK $5.6K || FD $7.2K), Pavelski (DK $5.2K || FD $6.6K), Reinhart (DK $5.1K || FD $6.8K), Vatrano (DK $4.7K || FD $5.0K), Verhaeghe (DK $4.2K || FD $6.3K). There is a lot of choices. The punt options are mostly even. You can pair a winger and a center on the same line in a cash game.
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the second one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Kris Letang - DK $6.2K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - New York Rangers
Letang has arguably the best value of defensemen on the slate. Now that this slate doesn't have Makar nor Josi, it's hard to find a lot of great plays. Letang gets enough points for a floor through blocked shots and when he is in on a goal score, he hits his ceiling. He is viable in cash and GPPs
Jacob Trouba - DK $5.3K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
What I like about Trouba outside of him being on a power play, is he generally gets a decent number of shots on goal and blocked shots to have a nice floor. He was quiet a couple of games before last one but then had a big game with one goal, one assist, four shots on goal, and three blocked shots. He is more of a GPP than cash lineup option. His price has been increasing to where he probably needs to score a point to meet value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Fox (DK $6.4K || FD $7.0K - Good cash alternative to Letang), Ekblad (DK $6.1K || FD $6.4K), Carlson (DK $6.0K || FD $6.8K), Lindell (DK $3.6K || FD $4.5K), Tanev (DK $3.2K || FD $4.1K). Outside of these guys, I am indifferent on who to roster. If looking elsewhere, find a defenseman that is on a power play if looking for upside. If looking for a punt play that can give you a decent floor, look for the guys who block shots like a Tanev.
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a three-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Florida is implied for 3.8 goals but after that, the implied totals are close together: Rangers (3.4), Flames (3.2), Penguins (3.2), Capitals (2.8), and Stars (2.5).
I will probably look at the Rangers again, as they are a slight road favorite and I would imagine most would just play Pittsburgh given they are at home and up in the series. Dallas is another team I am considering. With them having the lowest total on the slate and the longest odds, nobody is going to play them I don't think. Their first line does so much of their scoring, even with a loss they could get a couple of goals. Facing elimination at home though, I think we see a good effort from them.
In a large GPP, you are probably going to want to roster either Vanecek or Oettinger to get leverage on those popular stacks. It will lose more often than win but if your goalie comes through, it will help pay off.
Another strategy that can work in a large GPP is finding a third line that is in a good spot. This can be pretty risky and generally I stick to Top 6 skaters, but it is a viable strategy on a small slate to get different when there are a lot of entries.
