Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Colts vs Jets

November 4, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Colts and Jets and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 9 with the Indianapolis Colts hosting the New York Jets.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets: More or Less Contest

• Jonathan Taylor MORE than 85.5 rushing yards
• Michael Carter MORE than 40.5 rushing yards

Jonathan Taylor has run for 100 or more yards in three games this season. The Colts also happen to be 3-0 in those games. In their five losses, he averages just 58.8 yards per game. The Colts need to stick to their identity of running the football, especially with how willing quarterback Carson Wentz has looked to turn the ball over of late. The Jets give up an average of 115.1 rushing yards per game to their opponents, and Taylor will be the primary running option for Indy this week. He should be able to get to this mark with how the game script should play out. 

Running back Michael Carter has only gotten to this mark twice on the season, with the most recent coming in the team’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. However, a trend is starting to develop with the Jets in their running back room. Carter hadn’t played more than 52 percent of the snaps in a single game this season prior to the team’s bye in Week 6. In the two games since then, he’s been in on 72 percent and 70 percent of the snaps in the last two games. The Colts are allowing an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game, and they’ve held just one opponent’s leading rusher all season under 40.5 rushing yards this season. As long as Carter maintains his high snap rate, he should be able to get to this mark, especially if he’s able to snap off a big run or two. 

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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets: More or Less Contest

• Jonathan Taylor MORE than 85.5 rushing yards
• Michael Carter MORE than 40.5 rushing yards
• Jamison Crowder MORE than 4.5 receptions

There’s no real new analysis to add here that wasn’t said in the section above. When the Colts are winning, they want to get the ball into Taylor’s hands in one way or another. It’s almost astounding that he hasn’t seen 20 or more carries in a game this season. With the way this game figures to go, Taylor should be able to get to this mark. 

The same thing for Taylor goes for Carter in this situation. We already analyzed him in the previous section, and as long as Carter maintains the lion’s share of the snaps, he should be able to get to this mark even against a tough Colts run defense. 

In his first full game with Mike White under center, Jamison Crowder saw nine targets for the first time since Week 4. He caught eight of those nine balls for 84 yards. Despite playing in only four games this season, Crowder ranks fourth on the team in targets, and he’s catching 67 percent of the passes thrown his way. With the Colts being willing to give up underneath passes, this game is set up for Crowder to see a healthy target share. 

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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets: More or Less Contest

• Michael Pittman Jr. MORE than 69.5 receiving yards
• Jamison Crowder MORE than 54.5 receiving yards

With the injuries to teammate T.Y. Hilton, second-year wideout Michael Pittman Jr. has firmly seized hold on the team’s WR1 job. Pittman leads the Colts in targets, receptions, yards, and he’s tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with four. Pittman has 45 receptions this year, and the player in second in targets has 43. Pittman has cleared this mark in three of his last four games, and he should be able to get there again against a Jets defense that’s giving up an average of 275.3 passing yards per game. 

This one is largely tied to his receptions prop from above. Crowder getting to five or more receptions means he would really only need to average a little over 10 yards per reception. In two games with over five catches this season, he’s gone for 61 or more yards in both games. White is often checking the ball down, and he should pepper Crowder with enough targets to hit this number. 

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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets: Rapid Fire Contest

• Carson Wentz +0.5 passing yards vs Mike White & Jonathan Taylor -45.5 rushing yards vs Michael Carter

Mike White was just the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 400 or more yards in their first start. It’s possible he’s that skilled, but it’s not at all guaranteed. Additionally, his top wideout Corey Davis is still dealing with an injury. Carson and the Colts can air the ball out, and Wentz has been taking plenty of deep shots. I think he can outgain White here. Expecting both Wentz and Taylor to win these individual matchups is asking a lot, but it’s not out of the question. Taylor can break off a big play at any time, and he isn’t splitting touches as much as Carter does. 

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