The Case For Carson Wentz: Why Washington's QB Can Continue To Succeed

Joe Nicely breaks down the performance of Carson Wentz through two weeks and evaluates the fantasy football upside of Wentz going forward in the 2022 NFL season.

As someone with no ties to either Carson Wentz or his previous teams, I like to consider myself an impartial observer when it comes to the much-maligned signal caller that has now been shown the door by not one, but two QB-starved franchises in Philadelphia and Indianapolis.

As Wentz entered his first campaign for a Washington franchise that hasn't had a quarterback to speak of since RG3 was a rookie, I suppose my outlook was similar to most…the 29-year-old Wentz was carrying plenty of baggage from what became an untenable situation in Philly, as well as what was originally considered to be the perfect situation to rebuild his career in Indy. He was now stepping into a perceived bad or at least indifferent spot with a Washington team that was going nowhere fast and had pulled off a peculiar trade to acquire him. The assumption was that this would probably be a final, dying hail mary in an attempt to save a once-promising career.

While that bleak prediction might ultimately prove to be true over the long term, it doesn’t appear to be the case through his first two games with the Commanders. A funny thing happened on the way to Wentz's demise, as this Washington offense is actually clicking with him under center.

Off To A Fast Start In Washington

I'm not sure exactly what was expected from Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders to start the season, but it definitely wasn't this. This offense is off to a fast start...literally. In addition to averaging 27.5 points through their first two - the eighth-highest average in the NFL - Washington has played at a very fantasy-friendly pace.

The Commanders are averaging a massive 71 plays per game, the third-most in the NFL through two weeks. They have been very content to let Wentz throw the football while playing at this high pace, ranking fifth in the league in situation-neutral pass rate (65%) and third in pass attempts per game (43.5).

By and large, Wentz has been very successful in this up-tempo, high-volume attack. He's thrown for the second-most yards in the NFL through two weeks (650) and is tied for the most TD passes in the league (7). Wentz also possesses both a very healthy aDOT (8.1) and completion percentage (65.5).

Hindsight Is 20/20

While I'd like to consider myself impartial when evaluating Wentz's past, present, and future, it is rather easy to develop some hindsight biases when considering his rather nasty departures from both Philadelphia and Indianapolis.

Like many, I saw some of his horrible decision-making and egregious mistakes last year in Indy and assumed that Wentz was done. There were certainly some ugly moments and mistakes were definitely made, including a season-ending loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in the last week of the year.

However, when we move past the obvious surface shortcomings, a few comically-bad turnovers, and some low blows from Colts ownership on his way out the door, just how horrible was Wentz last year? Well...I've definitely seen worse.

Like many, I've been operating under the assumption that the Colts were "just a QB away" for the last few years. After Andrew Luck's shocking retirement just before the start of the 2019 season, Indy management has tried to remedy that gaping hole with Phillip Rivers, then Wentz, and now Matt Ryan.

As Wentz has thrived in Washington, we’ve seen Matt Ryan - his replacement with the Colts that most thought would be a considerable upgrade - struggle mightily over Indy’s first two, which throws some serious doubt on the much-believed narrative that Wentz was a huge drag on Indy’s offense and borderline horrific while wearing a Colts uniform.

But as Ryan and the Colts have floundered to an 0-2 start this year, it's fair to start wondering if this Indy squad is as good from top-to-bottom as most have believed. Put simply, was Indy as ready to win with Wentz as we thought?

Sneaky Upgrades

At first glance, the trade to Washington appeared to be a significant downgrade when it came to Wentz's supporting cast. But two games into the 2022 season and I'm not so sure that's the case.

Instead, if we view his new situation with the Commanders through a fair and balanced lens, we can make the argument that Wentz has actually received an upgrade in talent around him.

With a Washington receiving corps that includes Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, rookie Jahan Dotson, and TE Logan Thomas being the deepest and most talented group of pass catchers that Wentz has ever played with in his career - yes, including Philadelphia - and an undisputable upgrade over an Indy group that’s basically “Michael Pittman and some guys”. 

The Commanders receiving corps currently owns a collective PFF Grade of 72.0 which ranks them seventh in the NFL, while Indy's unit grades out at just 64.2 and stands 22nd in the league.

In addition to the upgraded receiving corps, Washington's offensive line has been very good at protecting Wentz to this point. The unit grades out seventh in Pro Football Focus' NFL Week 2 Offensive Line Rankings with no member of the starting unit carrying a PFF pass-blocking grade lower than 55.9.

While Washington certainly doesn't have a Jonathan Taylor on the roster, the current duo of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are a worthy backfield duo that is capable of taking plenty of pressure off Wentz when needed.

Back To The Future

In many ways, Wentz's entire career has been spent trying to regain what he was never able to fulfill. In his second year in Philly, he was performing at an MVP-caliber level before suffering a season-ending injury in the Eagles' 13th game of the season.

While Wentz has never been able to replicate his play of that star-crossed 2017 season, he has produced statistically when he's been on the field. Injuries have certainly played a huge factor in his decline, but over the three seasons that Wentz has managed to start 16 or more games, he's averaged 3,794 passing yards and 23.3 passing TDs. With his fast start to 2022, we have every reason to be confident that Wentz can finish the season as a fantasy-relevant QB if he stays healthy.

Let's not forget that despite his roundly-criticized play in Indy last year, he still finished the season as the QB14 in fantasy scoring. While we're just two games into the new season, Wentz currently ranks as the fantasy QB4 and all the early signs point to increases across the board in Washington thanks to his dramatic uptick in volume and pace of play, as well as his surprisingly-good offensive line and receiving corps.

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