X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

NBA Skill Set Scarcity: Where Are the Efficient Bigs?

Kent Shen examines the scarcity of efficient big men and the challenges it's causing in team building in today's fantasy game.

I'm a huge fan of Jrue Holiday. I truly believe he might be the most underrated point guard of our generation in both real life and for many years, in fantasy too. He's an elite defender who has finished better than the 90th percentile in on/off opponents' point per possession numbers in his career, with a 97th percentile finish last season in which Philly allowed 9.6 (!) less points per possession with Jrue on the court than off. In fantasy, he possesses one of the most unique spreads in the game with his out of position field goal % you can't find from a point guard not named Curry or Simmons to go with elite assist and steal marks. I boost Jrue all the time--I think he's a top 20 player this season and was thrilled to have him fall to me at #30 this year in a 12-man snake draft.

Then I went and traded Jrue Holiday down for LaMarcus Aldridge before the season even started.

This is not a negative endorsement of Jrue at all, I think he is a top-20 player and worth a top 20 pick. I think he is pound for pound a better fantasy player than LaMarcus Aldridge in a vacuum, and this is not a trade made off of misguided injury concerns for a guy who's hopefully shed that hastily placed label by now. It's just that I realized that the way my team shaped up during and after this draft, my team got better from trading down - and make no mistake, I traded down - and it's something I've begun to notice in almost all my drafts this year. Efficient big men have become an even more valuable resource than usual, and by skipping out on them in the early rounds, it's really easy to find your team missing exactly what these guys sell.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

What's different this year?

Anyone who's played fantasy football or fantasy baseball this year knows how much of a crap shoot tight end and catcher are in those respective games. Aside from the first 5 or so guys, you can almost throw a dart at a board of tight ends blindfolded and have a better shot at who is going to return TE1 value in a given week. And I've seen fantasy teams literally start nothing in their catcher spot weekly in deeper baseball leagues, since it was almost impossible to find a guy who wouldn't project to kill your ratios in any given week with a meager chance at some counting stats.

The way basketball is structured doesn't lend itself to the same kind of wasteland scenario that those positions present in the other sports. But this year there is a distinct lack of efficient bigs and it's becoming evidently more important to address the issue early, or find yourself scrambling to fix a team that is lacking in what they provide. There are a few reasons why this year has been worse, so let's take a look at them.

Unicorns Can Bleed

One reason we have reached a tipping point on this issue is that two early round bigs who were perfect big pivots for a number of punt builds suffered significant injuries last year, taking them off draft boards for this season. Kristaps Porzingis is one of very few center eligible players who combines elite block rates with a positive FT% contribution, and the ripple effects of his injury can be felt up and down the draft board. Punt FG% builds saw him as a cornerstone for blocks coverage and now have to rely even heavier on guys like Marc Gasol and even look at LaMarcus Aldridge to fill that role. Both those guys don't provide nearly as many blocks as Porzingis did, so teams have to look for coverage elsewhere, and it's leading to a lot more big selections or selections of out of position block contributors like Josh Richardson or Jonathan Isaac later on in the draft to cover that deficiency.

DeMarcus Cousins might not be a beacon of efficiency in real life, but he has percentages that won't absolutely murder you either way and slotted quite nicely as a pivot for a punt in either % stat and was still reasonable if you punted something like steals or assists. With him off the board other than as a late IL stash, that's another missing piece for those builds that's causing some fights later down the draft board. While losing 2 players might not seem like a lot, the domino effect that their absence has caused has created a stronger demand for the guys still standing that reverberates up and down the rankings.

The Burden of Improvement

On the other hand, the very best efficient bigs just got too good. Karl-Anthony Towns has ascended to a top 3 pick, which was expected by this point in his career, but he's now joined by Nikola Jokic as well in the top 8. Joel Embiid has shaken off a lot of his injury concerns last season and is now being taken off the board in the top 12 pretty consistently, and Kevin Love has also now moved into a fairly solid second round valuation in his new starring role as the tank commander in Cleveland.

With the cost of these guys increasing, coverage is becoming increasingly hard to get without changing up your draft boards early on, and it is leading to a lot of teams fighting over guys like Marc Gasol, Nikola Vucevic, and LaMarcus Aldridge. All 3 of these guys have their flaws, but you need to reach a bit higher than their ADP in most leagues to get them. The same can be said about Deandre Ayton, who has been going as high as the 2nd to 3rd round in a lot of leagues now, further underscoring the demand for this skillset. You can also add guys like John Collins and Jarrett Allen to this list, as they are being taken in the 4th round as well despite a short track record and some question marks surrounding them.

This has had a ripple effect lower down the draft board as guys like Enes Kanter, Brook Lopez, Al Horford and Paul Millsap are being snatched up at above ADP despite various risks and deficiencies as anyone who missed out earlier scrambles for that coverage.

Something is Missing

Another cause behind this problem is that the influx of strong bigs in the last few years has delivered some pretty build-specific players. Their lack of flexibility to slot in a multitude of builds has caused them to only be options for a small section of teams in drafts. We all know about Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan, but in recent years we've also added Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and Steven Adams to the top 70 as bigs who restrict you to punt FT% or 3s builds.

Most of the players in the middle rounds mentioned in the previous part have their own deficiencies as well that lead to certain team building restrictions and other risk factors. Marc Gasol has seen his FG% drop a lot in recent years since he started taking 3s, and now is a much stronger punt FG% option than any other build. Aldridge has a distinct lack of 3s. Kanter lacks 3s as well as defensive stats. Ayton, Collins and Allen have short track records and are being drafted that highly based on projection. Horford and Millsap have some decline risk due to their age and situations. Brook Lopez has had injury issues and question marks surrounding his fit in a new system.

Also with guys like Pau Gasol and Cody Zeller all but fading from fantasy relevance, there's just not as high of a volume of efficient bigs as usual. Some of the guys who many expected to make bigger strides by now just haven't. Myles Turner took a huge step back last season and there's no guarantee he turns into the mini-KAT people expected him to become this year presenting a pretty big risk as his ADP. Jonas Valanciunas has seen his role ebb and flow over the years and has combined stretches of fantasy brilliance with frustrating slumps where he barely sees the court. Willy Hernangomez got kind of messed around with in New York and hasn't really had a chance to develop much at all. Hopefully he gets that chance in Charlotte, but it's hard to count on that for your team. That's why we're all so high on John Collins and Jarrett Allen this year, and I'm in on taking a chance on them hoping we don't get another Myles Turner situation.

 

What Does This Mean?

From a strategy point of view, what this means is paying attention to stat coverage early in the draft even if it means reaching a little. As draft boards adjust and people start to realize this effect, it may not be a bad idea to trade "down" in order to round out your team. For anyone who's read Moneyball, the biggest lesson in that book isn't "fat guys that get on base are valuable." It's learning to recognize inefficiencies and adapting to them, using them to your advantage. A lack of efficient bigs is an inefficiency in our game right now, and covering your bases early means you can grab value late while your league-mates scramble. Do a little bit of planning then sit back and enjoy the chaos.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP