RADIO
Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL season. His RB lineups advice for Divisional Round fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Lineup decisions are becoming increasingly difficult each week. For fantasy, of the eight teams remaining, the Chiefs, Eagles, Texans, and Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the running back position this season. Only the Commanders and Bills have allowed fantasy production inside the top 20; there may be some foreshadowing there.
It's time to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly for this week's fantasy football matchups and see what advantages we can give our rosters this week.
"Success is where preparation and opportunity meet." At RotoBaller, we are prepared for this week's fantasy football showdowns to create a successful outcome for you. Here are your Divisional Weekend starts and sits at the running back position.
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Divisional Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Derrick Henry - RB, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Baltimore signed Derrick Henry for the playoffs. Even though Henry finished with 1,921 rushing yards, second to Saquon Barkley, this is what he was brought in for. In Henry's Ravens playoff debut, the bruising back averaged 7.2 yards per carry against the Pittsburgh Steelers on his way to 186 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns.
Derrick Henry was UNSTOPPABLE this week 🤯 pic.twitter.com/VQzhWcsoaD
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 13, 2025
Those in one-and-done contests may be kicking themselves after leaving 31.6 fantasy points on the bench in hopes of preserving Henry for later in the playoffs. If you are one of those people, this is the week I would strongly consider starting Henry. Assuming that the Chiefs beat the Texans in the other Divisional contest, the Bills' are the only favorable matchup remaining in the playoffs.
If you want to keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands, run it. When you face a team that has allowed 25.52 fantasy points per game this season, the most of any playoff team and third-most in the NFL, it's as good as it's going to get. This season, Buffalo allowed 16 total touchdowns to backs, 10 on the ground, and six more in the passing game. They also surrendered 1,629 rushing yards and a league-high 750 receiving yards to opposing backs. If you are looking for a sleeper play this week, Justice Hill is also in a great spot to produce.
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
While the Bills have one of the worst fantasy defenses against opposing running backs, the Washington Commanders have the 30th-ranked run defense this season. Of all the teams that qualified for the postseason, no one is allowing more rushing yards per game than the Commanders, who allowed 135.4 per game this season and an average of 145 per game on the road.
While David Montgomery is expected to have a role this week, Jahmyr Gibbs is the back you want to plug into your lineups. Gibbs finished fifth in rushing yards this season with 1,412, averaging 5.65 yards per attempt. Gibbs was the most explosive back this season, as 10% of his runs resulted in gains of greater than 15 yards, with 41.8% of his total rushing yards coming as a result of those explosive plays.
Jahmyr Gibbs was elite for fantasy 💪
✅ 70+ yards from scrimmage in every game this season
✅ 20 total TDs pic.twitter.com/sUELgtelFQ— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) January 10, 2025
Washington's run defense will need to find a way to bring Gibbs down to the turf. Only Henry, James Conner, and Bijan Robinson forced more missed tackles than Gibbs' 58, which earned him a missed tackles forced per attempt rate of 0.23 this season. On paper, Washington is outclassed in the trenches, where the Lions' offensive line kept Gibbs clean, as the back would average 3.30 yards before contact per attempt.
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams
There are only a handful of backs to choose from. We are starting the backs who face fantasy's friendliest defense. We are also starting the backs who face playoff teams that are allowing the most rushing yards per game. So it's only fitting that we fire up the back who led the league in rushing yards and fantasy points in Saquon Barkley this week as well. Sometimes, you just have to pick that low-hanging fruit.
Considering Barkley lost out on plenty of opportunities inside the 5-yard line, his 13 rushing touchdowns are that much more impressive. Of the Eagles' carries inside the five-yard line, Barkley accounted for just 41.5% of them. For perspective, of running backs with at least 70 carries this season, that ranks 36th. Henry, Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard, Breece Hall, James Conner, and Kyren Williams were well over 70%.
Barkley finished last week with 119 rushing yards on 25 carries and easily could have added to that total after breaking through to the third level with under a minute remaining in the game, choosing to give himself up rather than add another 70 yards and a touchdown to his box score. Barkley got his first taste of playoff victory and has acquired a thirst for it moving forward.
CLASSY MOVE: @saquon Barkley had an easy touchdown but slides down. pic.twitter.com/4e1rqIAxmy
— 𝐃𝐈𝐄-𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐃 🦅 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋 𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄 (@Eaglesfans9) January 13, 2025
Divisional Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Mixon played a significant role in the Texans advancing out of the Wild Card Round last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Mixon ran for 106 yards on 25 attempts, including a 17-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter, which put the game out of reach.
Unlike Rex Ryan, I'm not going to say that the Chiefs have a bye this week, but things will be much more difficult for Mixon against Chris Jones and company than last week. This season, the Chiefs allowed 101.8 rushing yards per game, the fifth-fewest, and just 96.5 yards on the ground at Arrowhead.
For fantasy, no team allowed less production this season than the Chiefs, who allowed opposing running backs to average 16.24 fantasy points per game. Running backs accounted for just 1,610 total yards and nine touchdowns this season against Steve Spagnuolo's unit, who also happened to be the No. 1 scoring defense in the league through 17 weeks.
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
It doesn't matter who this Eagles defense is facing. Opposing running backs are going to be in for a long day. Last week, Josh Jacobs had a successful game on the ground, running for 81 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against this Eagles front. Then again, 31 of those 81 yards came on one play. On the season, that hasn't been the norm.
Philadelphia is allowing 104.3 rushing yards per game this season, the ninth-fewest in the league. The 16.35 fantasy points per game they conceded during the regular season are the second-fewest, trailing only the Chiefs in that category.
Kyren Williams is one of the best in the business when it comes to finding his way to the end zone. In the last two seasons, including the playoffs, Williams has punched it in for six on 32 separate occasions, including a nice five-yard touchdown reception on Wild Card Weekend against the Vikings. The unstoppable force meets an immovable object, as the Eagles allowed only seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Stafford to Kyren Williams! Rams lead early.
📺: #MINvsLAR on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/oTXzxgQKe7— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2025
Philadelphia is arguably the best defense remaining in the playoffs. They rank first in total defensive DVOA, first in yards allowed, second in both pass and run DVOA, and third in touchdowns allowed. To make a long story short, just avoid anyone who is strapping on a helmet against the Eagles this week.
Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
One of two things is or will be happening. One, the Chiefs are pulling one over on us and are about to unleash Isiah Pacheco in the playoffs yet again. Last season, Pacheco made a name for himself in these fantasy streets, rushing for 313 yards and three touchdowns in four postseason contests.
The other possibility is that Pacheco is still not 100%, even after having the last two weeks off. In the first two weeks of the regular season, Pacheco posted 15.8 and 16.1 fantasy performances thanks to 189 total yards and a touchdown. However, since he returned in Week 13, Pacheco's best outing came against the Chargers, where he had 61 total yards. In the five games since he returned, Pacheco averaged just five fantasy points per game.
Much like the Chiefs and the Eagles, fantasy production has been challenging when facing this Houston Texans team. This season, opposing running backs averaged 18.72 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest. Houston was stingy up front, allowing just 1,466 rushing yards, 476 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns to the position.
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