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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, August 9th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Matt Olson OVER TJ Friedl
These hitters have been raking lately, and they're both in incredible matchups. I will back the guy who has proven to be the better hitter over a more extended sample size in Olson. He has a whopping 39 homers this year, averaging 16.7 FPTS per game over his last nine contests. Friedl is right there with him in recent form, but he gets the slightly tougher pitching matchup in veteran Johnny Cueto, who can thrive by inducing soft contact when he's on his game.
Graham Ashcraft OVER MacKenzie Gore
Graham Ashcraft OVER Johnny Cueto
Graham Ashcraft OVER Jordan Lyles
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Logan Allen (UNDER), Bobby Miller (UNDER)
Allen barely exceeded 18 FPTS against the lowly White Sox in his last start, and he put up just 4.9 (vs. CHW) and 14.55 (vs. KC) FPTS in his prior two starts. Why would we trust this man against the Blue Jays if he can't make it happen against the White Sox and Royals? The young lefty has had his moments this season, and his 3.65 ERA is solid, but his advanced metrics are terrible, and the matchup is rough. He also struggles when pitching in his home ballpark, for whatever reason. He holds a 4.27 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 1.20 HR/9, and a low 19.8% strikeout rate at what should be a pitchers' park in Progressive Field.
Miller started off hot for the Dodgers, but the rookie posted a 5.27 ERA in June and a 4.64 ERA in July. He only lasted 3 and 2/3 innings against the Padres in his last start (6 H, 1 ER), so the Dodgers seem to have shortened their leash on the young arm as they approach the postseason. His 23.3% strikeout rate doesn't lead to much upside, anyway, and this matchup is not one to attack. The D-Backs strike out at the third-lowest rate (20.4%) vs. RHP, and they rank in the top nine in OPS, ISO, and wOBA in the split.
Carlos Correa (UNDER), Matt Olson (OVER), Nick Castellanos (OVER)
The Twins offense has been humming since the All-Star break, and opposing starter Alex Faedo is, as the kids say, "mid." I'm backing the under on Correa's high FPTS line on RIVAL today. The veteran has failed to exceed eight FPTS in 11 of his last 12 games, and his .228 AVG doesn't inspire much confidence. Faedo's 4.00 xERA suggests that his 5.80 ERA should be much better, and he does a great job of limiting hard contact and walks while getting hitters to chase his effective slider.
The Braves might score 12 runs tonight. They're projecting for a lofty six-run implied total against Quinn Priester, a prospect with an ugly 8.69 ERA (5.87 xERA) over his first three MLB starts. He's giving up a lot of hard contact and barrels, which plays right into Olson's hands. Olson is one of the hottest sluggers in the league, holding a 1.191 OPS with ten homers since the All-Star break and exceeding what he needs for FPTS tonight in nine of his last 11 games.
Opposing starter Johnny Cueto is 37 years old, and nowhere near the same pitcher he once was. That's good news for Castellanos and the Reds, as they will get to square off against him in their home ballpark that still ranks third in Park Factor and #1 for home runs. Castellanos is having a bounce-back month (.873 OPS, .265 ISO, .369 wOBA) after a disastrous month of July, and he has now exceeded what he needs for FPTS tonight in four of his last six games.
Cal Raleigh (UNDER)
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